ASML, Broadcom, and Micron could head even higher over the next few years.
Many semiconductor stocks rallied over the past year as the explosive growth of the artificial intelligence (AI) market drove many companies to upgrade their data center chips. But with the market hovering near its record highs, investors might be reluctant to add some of these high-flying stocks to their portfolios.
However, the market leaders that have clear competitive advantages, staying power, and wide moats should continue to soar higher over the long term. I believe three of those resilient chip stocks -- ASML (ASML 2.02%), Broadcom (AVGO 1.90%), and Micron (MU 4.60%) -- are still great plays for growth-oriented investors.
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1. ASML
ASML is the world's largest producer of lithography systems that are used to etch circuit patterns onto silicon wafers. It's also the only producer of high-end extreme ultraviolet (EUV) systems for manufacturing the world's most advanced chips.
As a linchpin of the global semiconductor market, ASML has cyclical growth. But from 2018 to 2023, its revenue still rose at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% as its earnings per share (EPS) increased at a CAGR of 27% -- even as the broader market was disrupted by the pandemic, supply chain issues, and macro headwinds.
That's because ASML's top customers -- including Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel, and Samsung -- need to consistently buy more EUV systems to stay in the "process race" of manufacturing smaller, denser, and more power-efficient chips. ASML's monopolization of that crucial technology, which will continue with its latest generation of "high-NA" EUV systems, gives it a lot of pricing power.
ASML suffered a temporary slowdown over the past year as European regulators barred the company from shipping some of its older deep ultraviolet (DUV) systems to Chinese chipmakers. But from 2023 to 2026, analysts expect its revenue to grow at a CAGR of 13% as it laps that deceleration, ships more EUV systems, and benefits from the secular expansion of the AI market. They expect its EPS to rise at a CAGR of 21%.
ASML's stock might seem a bit pricey at more than 50 times forward earnings, but I believe it will head much higher as the market's demand for its systems outstrips the available supply.
2. Broadcom
Broadcom produces a wide range of wireless, optical, and data storage chips. It also built a massive infrastructure software business by acquiring CA Technologies, Symantec's enterprise security unit, and VMware over the past few years.
From fiscal 2018 to fiscal 2023, which ended last October, Broadcom's revenue increased at a CAGR of 11% as its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) grew at a CAGR of 16%. Some of that growth was driven by its big acquisitions across the semiconductor and infrastructure software markets.
Broadcom expects to generate about a fifth of its revenue from AI-oriented chips in fiscal 2024. That growth, which mainly comes from its network and optical chips for data centers, should offset the macro-induced softness of its enterprise and telecom markets. The expansion of its software business should also curb the company's dependence on Apple, which accounted for a fifth of its sales in its past two fiscal years.
From fiscal 2023 to fiscal 2026, analysts expect Broadcom's revenue and adjusted EBITDA to both grow at a CAGR of 23%. Its stock still looks reasonably valued at 27 times this year's adjusted EBITDA, and it should remain one of the most balanced ways to profit from the growth of the chipmaking, AI, and infrastructure software markets.
3. Micron
Micron is the world's third largest producer of DRAM chips and fourth largest supplier of NAND chips. Samsung and SK Hynix lead both of those markets, but Micron consistently produces denser chips than its larger South Korean rivals.
Micron experienced a severe slowdown last year as PC shipments declined and the 5G smartphone upgrade cycle cooled. The company's revenue plunged 49% in fiscal 2023, which ended last September, as it turned unprofitable. However, Micron's growth is finally accelerating again as the PC market stabilizes, the mobile market recovers, and the AI market expands.
Micron expects the growth of the AI market to be a major secular tailwind, since data centers will need to upgrade their memory chips to store the information being fed to Nvidia's AI-processing GPUs.
Analysts expect Micron's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 42% from fiscal 2023 to fiscal 2026 as its core markets grow again. They also expect the company to turn profitable again in fiscal 2024 and grow its EPS at a CAGR of 305% over the following two years. That's an incredible growth rate for a stock that still trades at 15 times next year's earnings. And it could soar much higher over the next few years as a new multiyear growth cycle begins.
Leo Sun has positions in ASML and Apple. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends ASML, Apple, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom and Intel and recommends the following options: long January 2025 $45 calls on Intel and short August 2024 $35 calls on Intel. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
