Airbnb's Recession Buffer (2024)

If you’ve read the various hot takes on the state of the housing market as indexed by Airbnb revenue, here are a few concerns you can put to rest. What will happen to the housing market in a recession is anybody’s guess, but speaking purely of Airbnb as a stock, the company has a few things going for it.

Firstly, the company offers lodging options at various price points, it focuses on domestic and younger travelers whoself-cater, according to an analysis by AB Bernstein in its report Airbnb: A Long Stay. And in an unfavorable macro environment where travelers stick to domestic trips and self-catered accommodations — that’s plus one for vacation rentals.

Specifically, Airbnb’s resilience comes from longer stays, increased rental demand, and more hosts joining the platform to supplement their incomes. In a recessionary environment, lower rates may not significantly impact Airbnb if offset by higher demand, and the sustainability of high rates will depend on factors like the recovery of APAC/city markets. Scroll down to see Airbnb’s long-stays performance under ‘Chart of the Day.’

Airbnb's Recession Buffer (1)

Chart of the Day

A significant portion of Airbnb’s business is now focused on long-term stays of 28 days or more, accounting for 20% of its room nights, which is higher compared to other platforms. This trend is not solely related to leisure travel but is tied to individuals living in Airbnb accommodations. There are reasons to be optimistic about this aspect of the business, according to analysts at AB Bernstein. Historical data suggests that during past recessions, there has been an increase in employee mobility, with more people relocating domestically.

Temporary accommodation for relocation purposes is a common use case for longer-term Airbnb stays. Factors such as higher mortgage rates and reduced rental supply from professional landlords may contribute to an increase in renters rather than homeowners. In previous economic downturns, rental demand has shown resilience, even when new home demand declined. Airbnb is well-positioned to address the gap between supply and demand, particularly for short-term housing needs.

Airbnb's Recession Buffer (2)

In Case You Missed It

The Dairy King in Delta, Colorado that had been vacant for about 15 years has been turned into a short-term rental. The property, which includes a 1,810-square-foot building on less than an acre, was sold in February 2021 for $110,000, with $252,000 worth of improvements made in the past year. The buyer was quoted in the local newspaper as saying, “…unfortunately, in these small towns, commercial (real estate) sometimes just doesn’t pay. Just being honest. I hate to be the bearer of bad news.”

Sonder is expanding its presence in Florida. With the addition of four new properties, Sonder will now offer a total of 930 live units across various accommodation types, catering it says to a diverse range of travelers including leisure, business, and conference guests.

Earlier this year, Sonder opened two new properties in Florida: A 76-key hotel close to the Miami Beach Convention Center, and a 149-key hotel located near the Walt Disney World Resort in Kissimmee. Upcoming openings include a 180-key resort hotel in the heart of Miami’s South Beach and a conversion of an office building into 95 serviced apartment units situated in Miami’s financial district. These four properties will more than double Sonder’s live units in Florida.

While speaking at Skift’s STR Summit last month, Sonder CEO Francis Davidson said, “We have boutique hotels, and we have a few resorts. But we are primarily operating in urban markets,” he said “And so we realize that there’s a significant opportunity in purely leisure markets. Form factors like glamping or villas, and cottages are really interesting to us.”

The short-term rental group on Nantucket Island agreed to put forward a series of bylaws for voters to consider at a special town meeting in November.

Some of these proposed bylaws include: Short-term rentals operators would be restricted to renting only one property. However, they would be allowed to rent multiple dwellings on that property, as long as they are rented to the same party under a single contract.

The bylaws would also prohibit corporate ownership of STRs unless every shareholder or partner is an individual person, rather than a corporate entity. Additionally, the regulations would grant the right to operate STRs across the entire island, while prohibiting them in units that are designated for affordable or attainable housing. The bylaws would also set a maximum limit of four weeks for rentals in apartments — existing rentals would be exempt from these bylaws.

Riverside County in California, which includes towns like Palm Springs and La Quinta, has included $1.8 million to strengthen enforcement of the county’s short-term rental ordinance in its newly adopted budget, which took effect July 1. The budget allocates $825,000 to code enforcement for the purpose of establishing a dedicated team consisting of 10 members to enforce regulations related to short-term rentals. In addition, Supervisor V. Manuel Perez will designate $350,000 to support the staffing needs of the department.

Elsewhere on Skift

The Ozarks, specifically the city of Branson, Missouri, has been associated with a dated and kitschy image due to its past development with large hotel chains and tourist attractions. But the team behind The Ozarker Lodge in Branson aims to challenge this perception.

The boutique hotel, opened on June 30, is designed by Longitude Design, a consultancy based in Springfield, Missouri. The team believes that the Ozarks is not solely defined by stereotypes and aims to bring fresh ideas to the area. Jeremy Wells and Dustin Myers, partners at Longitude, decided to venture into hotel ownership to showcase a different side of the region.

“These Missouri hotel innovators asked themselves: What should thoughtful, modern hospitality look like in the Ozarks? The verdict is still out on their just-opened boutique hotel. But their approach offers a peek into current trends in design thinking.” writes Leslie Barrie of Skift.

The Boutique Hotel Trend Arrives in Branson, Missouri

Skift Short-Term Rental Reporter Srividya Kalyanaraman writes the Skift Short-Term Rental Report. Send news tips to [emailprotected].

Airbnb's Recession Buffer (2024)

FAQs

Will Airbnb survive a recession? ›

Historically, Airbnb has demonstrated resilience during economic downturns due to its unique value proposition and flexibility. Airbnb launched during the 2008 recession, and its recession-friendly reputation lives on for travelers and hosts alike.

Why have people stopped using Airbnb? ›

Lack of Quality Control

You can find Airbnb almost anywhere, but there is no standard of quality control. This can create several issues, including a lack of cleanliness and comfort for guests. After all, when guests don't comply with Airbnb guidelines, the host has more to lose than the guest does.

Did Airbnb mess up the housing market? ›

A Los-Angeles specific study led by Hans Koster from Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam found that between 2014 and 2018, Airbnb was responsible for a more than 30% increase in housing prices in Venice, as well as large price increases in other major tourist destinations in Los Angeles.

Is Airbnb declining in popularity? ›

Across the US, Airbnb bookings have grown 8.9% over the last year (January 2023- January 2024). However, each market and property is unique. Some markets boom while others bust. And even individual properties can succeed in an otherwise volatile location.

Is Airbnb getting over saturated? ›

Airbnb reported that the number of new hosts had grown by more than 50% by mid-2022, compared to the number of new hosts in the second quarter of 2021. This led to market saturation and decreased occupancy rates.

Is Airbnb failing in 2024? ›

Guests are increasingly booking on the Airbnb app.

In Q2 2024, Nights and Experiences Booked increased 9% year-over-year, representing stable growth from Q1.

Who is Airbnb's biggest competitor? ›

Vrbo is commonly considered the biggest Airbnb competitor. It has over 2 million listings and vacation rentals in 190 countries. And because Vrbo is part of the parent brand Expedia Group, listing on Vrbo enables you to tap into this brand's 112+ million monthly unique visitors.

Is owning an Airbnb still worth it? ›

In some areas and circ*mstances, Airbnb rentals can be profitable, while in others, they may not be as lucrative. It's essential to carefully evaluate local market conditions and consider all associated costs before determining the potential profitability of an Airbnb rental.

Why is Airbnb doing badly? ›

Scams, terrible listings, and abusive hosts have been some of the issues dogging Airbnb for years. But even if a rental turns out not to be a bait and switch, a sizable number of listings that don't quite deliver on their promises — or just aren't nice places to stay — have long strained the platform.

Why Airbnb losing customers? ›

Airbnb's struggles go beyond people spending less. It's losing some travelers to hotels. Airbnb stock tumbled 14% in one day after the company predicted slowing demand. Some former Airbnb diehards say they now prefer the consistency of hotels.

What are the red flags for Airbnb guests? ›

If the guest's email has a different full name or it appears to be jumbled letters in their email address, this is a red flag that the profile is not who they say they are. If the guest has an email that seems questionable have them verify their email before they proceed with renting your property.

Why are people banning Airbnb? ›

Housing Affordability: Short-term rentals can reduce the availability of long-term rental properties, driving up housing costs. Neighborhood Integrity: Frequent turnover of short-term renters can disrupt the sense of community and lead to noise and safety concerns.

What states have banned Airbnb? ›

5 Cities Where Airbnb Is Illegal
  • Los Angeles, California. The most recent city to enact strict Airbnb regulations is Los Angeles. ...
  • New York City, New York. ...
  • Santa Monica, California. ...
  • Las Vegas, Nevada. ...
  • San Francisco, California.
Feb 26, 2019

Are Airbnbs crashing? ›

Despite the claims of a significant decrease in Airbnb's revenue per active listing, the overall revenue of Airbnb has actually increased by 70% over the last three years. This suggests that the short-term rental market is not collapsing, but rather adjusting to supply and demand dynamics.

Is there a future in Airbnb? ›

From a broader perspective, the future looks quite bright for Airbnb. Letting yields may remain favourable for short-term or holiday lets, and rents could continue to rise. Staycations have become increasingly popular, and the number of travellers is also increasing, post-pandemic, for business or work trips.

How do vacation rentals do in a recession? ›

Often, during slow months, hosts tend to bring their prices down. And in a recession, most property owners will likely do the same. You can do that, and see if it brings you good results. If not, try doing the exact opposite – charge higher than your local competition.

What does the future hold for Airbnb? ›

According to AirDNA, a short-term rental data and analytics company, US AirBnB listings increased by 8.9% between January 2023 and January 2024. The company also reports that demand is expected to increase by 10.7% due to economic growth and domestic travel recovery.

Is Airbnb doing well financially? ›

Airbnb ended 2023 with another strong quarter. In Q4, Nights and Experiences Booked totaled 99 million, growing 12 percent year-over-year, and marking our highest fourth quarter ever. Revenue of $2.2 billion grew 17 percent year-over-year (14% ex-FX).

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