After reporting (year-over-year) earnings growth of 1% in 2023, what are industry analysts projecting for (year-over-year) earnings growth for the S&P 500 for 2024 and 2025?
Industry analysts in aggregate predict the S&P 500 will report year-over-year earnings growth of 11.3% in 2024 and 14.4% in 2025. If these numbers are the actual earnings growth rates for these years, it will mark the third time in the past 15 years that the S&P 500 has reported two consecutive years of double-digit earnings growth. The last two times the S&P 500 reported two straight years of double-digit earnings growth was in 2017 (11.5%) and 2018 (20.3%) and in 2010 (40.2%) and 2011 (12.8%).
At the sector level, analysts are expecting widespread growth for both years. For 2024, nine of the eleven sectors are predicted to report (year-over-year) earnings growth. Four of these nine sectors are projected to report double-digit growth, led by the Communication Services (21.0%) and Information Technology (18.8%) sectors. For 2025, all eleven sectors are predicted to report (year-over-year) earnings growth. Eight of these eleven sectors are projected to report double-digit growth, led by the Information Technology (19.5%) and Health Care (18.5%) sectors.
It is interesting to note that the current earnings growth rate estimates for both years are above the expectations at the start of the year. On December 31, the estimated earnings growth rates for the S&P 500 for 2024 and 2025 were 11.2% and 12.7%, respectively. Thus, analysts have increased earnings estimates in aggregate for both years over the past six months.
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FAQs
On December 31, the estimated earnings growth rates for the S&P 500 for 2024 and 2025 were 11.2% and 12.7%, respectively. Thus, analysts have increased earnings estimates in aggregate for both years over the past six months.
What is the S&P 500 earnings estimate for 2025? ›
For CY 2025, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 15.4% and revenue growth of 6.0%. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 20.6. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average of 19.4 and above the 10-year average of 18.0.
What is the earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 in 2024? ›
Overall, Q1 2024 revenue for the S&P 500 recorded a growth rate of 10.9%, year-over-year, an increase from 9.3% last quarter, 5.9% in Q3 2023, and 3.9% in Q2 and Q1. Communication Services was once again the highest revenue growth sector, increasing 15.7% (Q1 2024 vs.
What is the S&P 500 prediction for 2024? ›
Analysts project 11.5% earnings growth and 5.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in 2024. Fortunately, analysts see positive earnings and revenue growth for all eleven market sectors this year.
What is the 5 year projection for the S&P 500? ›
Overall, Yardeni Research forecasts S&P 500 operating earnings at $250 in 2024, up 12% vs 2023. He puts them at $270 in 2025 (up 8%) and $300 in 2026 (up 11.1%). These figures compare with analysts' consensus forecasts of $244.70 in 2024, $279.70 in 2025 and $314.80 in 2026.
What is the average return on the sp500 last 5 years? ›
Average returns
| Period | Average annualised return | Total return |
|---|
| Last year | 24.3% | 24.3% |
| Last 5 years | 15.7% | 107.1% |
| Last 10 years | 15.6% | 325.1% |
| Last 20 years | 11.1% | 725.5% |
S&P 500 5 Year Return is at 93.01%, compared to 85.29% last month and 55.36% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 45.87%. The S&P 500 5 Year Return is the investment return received for a 5 year period, excluding dividends, when holding the S&P 500 index.
What is the S&P 500 earnings growth rate estimates? ›
A Closer Look at Earnings Expectations
| Year | S&P 500 Median Annual EPS Growth | MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL, META Annual EPS Growth |
|---|
| 2023 | 4% | 57% |
| 2024F | 6% | 37% |
| 2025F | 11% | 19% |
| 2026F | 9% | 13% |
Jul 25, 2024
Returns in the S&P 500 over the coming decade are more likely to be in the 3%-6% range, as multiples and margins are unlikely to expand, leaving sales growth, buybacks, and dividends as the main drivers of appreciation.
What is the earnings forecast for 2024? ›
Analysts project 4.9% earnings growth for Q3 2024 and a more optimistic 15.4% for Q4 2024. For the full year 2024, expectations are set at 10.1% earnings growth and 5.1% revenue growth, suggesting continued optimism in the market.
Also, research suggests that when it comes to the S&P 500's historical returns, there's never been a bad time to buy as long as you're a long-term investor.
What is the stock market forecast for 2025? ›
The Fed's median forecast for 2025 is 4.1%, while nearly all market participants currently see rates below 4.1% by September 2025, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
How much will the S&P 500 be worth in 2030? ›
Stock market forecast for the next decade
| Year | Price |
|---|
| 2027 | 6200 |
| 2028 | 6725 |
| 2029 | 7300 |
| 2030 | 8900 |
5 more rowsAug 16, 2024
According to his math, since 1949 S&P 500 investments have doubled ten times, or an average of about seven years each time. In some cases, like 1952 to 1955 or 1995 to 1998, the value of the investment doubled in only three years.
How much has the S&P 500 grow in the last 10 years? ›
S&P 500 10 Year Return (I:SP50010Y)
S&P 500 10 Year Return is at 181.9%, compared to 186.0% last month and 176.0% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 115.5%.
What is the expected return of the stock market in the next 10 years? ›
The largest shift was in U.S. small-cap stocks, where our forecasts for annualized returns for the next decade range from 5.0% to 7.0% as of June 30, 2024, up from 4.3% to 6.3% as of the March 31, 2024, running of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM).
What is the earnings forecast for the S&P 500? ›
Basic Info. S&P 500 Earnings Per Share Forward Estimate is at a current level of 67.01, up from 64.32 last quarter and up from 58.03 one year ago. This is a change of 4.18% from last quarter and 15.47% from one year ago.
What is the S&P 500 expected earnings to price ratio? ›
Basic Info
S&P 500 P/E Ratio Forward Estimate is at a current level of 22.56, down from 23.40 last quarter and down from 26.39 one year ago. This is a change of -3.59% from last quarter and -14.52% from one year ago.
How much is the S&P 500 up over the last 10 years? ›
S&P 500 10 Year Return is at 181.9%, compared to 186.0% last month and 176.0% last year.
What is the actual EPS of the S&P 500? ›
S&P 500 Earnings Per Share is at a current level of 47.37, down from 47.79 last quarter and down from 48.41 one year ago. This is a change of -0.88% from last quarter and -2.15% from one year ago.
Insight/2024/06.2024/06.21.2024_Earnings%20Insight/01-s%26p-500-annual-earnings-growth-cy10-cy-25.png?width=672&height=384&name=01-s%26p-500-annual-earnings-growth-cy10-cy-25.png "Analysts Project S&P 500 to Report Double-Digit Earnings Growth for 2024 and 2025 (1)")
Insight/2024/06.2024/06.21.2024_Earnings%20Insight/02-s%26op-500-earnings-growth-cy-2024.png?width=672&height=384&name=02-s%26op-500-earnings-growth-cy-2024.png "Analysts Project S&P 500 to Report Double-Digit Earnings Growth for 2024 and 2025 (2)")
Insight/2024/06.2024/06.21.2024_Earnings%20Insight/03-s%26p-500-earnings-growth-cy-2025.png?width=672&height=384&name=03-s%26p-500-earnings-growth-cy-2025.png "Analysts Project S&P 500 to Report Double-Digit Earnings Growth for 2024 and 2025 (3)")
