Are We Running Out of Resources? (2024)

Contrary to pessimistic predictions, resources tend to become more abundant and cheaper over time.

Marian L. Tupy, Ronald Bailey —

In his 1968 book The Population Bomb, Stanford University biologist Paul Ehrlich warned that overpopulation and overconsumption would result in the exhaustion of resources and a global catastrophe. To understand whether that is likely to happen, it is important to recognize that resources are not finite in the same way that a slice of pizza is finite. That’s because the totality of our resources is neither known nor fixed.

In a competitive economy, humanity’s knowledge about the value and availability of something tends to be reflected in its price. If prices fall, resources can be deemed to have become more abundant relative to demand. If prices increase, they can be deemed to have become less abundant, again relative to demand. Higher prices also create incentives for innovation, including discoveries of new deposits, greater efficiency of use, and the development of substitutes.

In a recent paper, one of us looked at prices for 50 foundational commodities covering energy, food, materials, and metals. The data were collected by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund between 1980 and 2017. The paper found that the nominal prices of 9 commodities fell, whereas the nominal prices of 41 commodities increased. The average nominal price of 50 commodities rose by 62.7 percent. Adjusted for inflation, however, 43 commodities declined in price, 2 remained equally valuable, and only 5 commodities increased in price. On average, the real price of 50 commodities fell by 36.3 percent.

Between 1980 and 2017, the inflation adjusted global hourly income per person also grew by 80.1 percent. Therefore, for the amount of work required, commodities became 64.7 percent cheaper. Put differently, commodities that took 60 minutes of work to buy in 1980 took only 21 minutes of work to buy in 2017. All in all, resources are not being depleted in the way that Ehrlich feared they would—as witnessed by the fact that humanity has not yet run out of a single supposedly nonrenewable resource. In fact, resources tend to become more abundant over time relative to the demand for them.

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Are We Running Out of Resources? (2024)

FAQs

Are we running out of resources? ›

All in all, resources are not being depleted in the way that Ehrlich feared they would—as witnessed by the fact that humanity has not yet run out of a single supposedly nonrenewable resource. In fact, resources tend to become more abundant over time relative to the demand for them.

Will we run out of resources one day? ›

We will run out of only a few resources. Most resources though can be recycled or recreated chemically or biologically though and we won't run out of them. It may become expensive to extract them in the future, but we will not run out of most of them.

How fast are we running out of resources? ›

Currently, humanity worldwide is using about 1.7 Earth's worth of renewable resources each year. That's three Earths by 2050, following that trajectory, according to the Global Footprint Network. The overuse of renewable resources has crept up sooner over the past 10 years, albeit at a slower pace.

Is it possible for a population to run out of resources? ›

Resources include food, water, oxygen, and shelter. Organisms that get more resources are more likely to grow and produce offspring. A limited resource is one that is not available in endless supply. As populations get bigger, limited resources can start to run out.

Will we ever run out of paper? ›

Because it is made from a renewable resource (wood), paper's main raw material will never be depleted.

Are we running out of food resources? ›

There is no global food shortage because we produce more than enough food to feed everyone in the world. We produce so much food globally yet one–third of it – 1.3 billion tons – is wasted. According to the U.N.

What will we run out of by 2050? ›

According to Professor Cribb, shortages of water, land, and energy combined with the increased demand from population and economic growth, will create a global food shortage around 2050.

What resource will not run out? ›

Renewable resources are those whose supplies are abundant and can be easily replenished. Unlike nonrenewable resources, they are considered to be sustainable. Examples of renewable resources are the sun, wind, water, heat from the Earth, and biomass.

What happens if Earth runs out of resources? ›

The environment is incapable of replenishing the resources if we use them too quickly. Once these resources are gone, humans around the world will suffer due to a lack of access to essential resources like water, food, materials for housing, and materials for heating.

Will humans eventually run out of resources? ›

The supply of minerals is theoretically finite, but human knowledge and creativity are limitless.

Will we run out of metal? ›

In fact, the deepest mine ever created by humans is approximately 2.4 miles deep. The Earth's crust is approximately 21 miles deep, and even that is less than 1% of the planet's overall volume. It is safe to assume then that we will never exhaust the Earth's metal resources in their entirety.

Will oil ever run out? ›

For decades, industry experts have said there are around 50 years of oil left, based on known reserves.

How are we running out of resources? ›

What causes the depletion of our natural resources? Overpopulation. With 7 billion people on the planet, the demand on Earth's resources continue to increase. Overconsumption and waste.

What will happen when we run out of that resource? ›

The effects these will have on ecosystems and the human population are cause for concern. The range of resources we use every day requires raw materials to produce. Plant life, aquatic life, water, minerals, and so many other natural resources are in serious danger of depletion.

Is overconsumption killing the planet? ›

Consumption rates differ wildly from region to region, but on the whole, we're consuming the planet's resources 1.7 times faster than they can regenerate, according to the Guardian. This means that in the long run, we'd need 1.7 Earths to sustain our current levels of consumption, which is obviously unsustainable.

Are we in a resource crisis? ›

The world is in the midst of a triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution and waste. The global economy is consuming ever more natural resources, while the world is not on track to meet the Sustainable Development Goals.

Will we ever run out of minerals? ›

How big is our planet's supply? So it's unlikely that Earth will ever run out of minerals. But will people ever experience mineral shortages? Absolutely.

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