Bitcoin’s Next Halving 2024: Market Impact and What to Expect | ProShares (2024)

Updated 4/26/24

The halving, which took place on April 19, 2024, slashed mining rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins. The fourth such occurrence in bitcoin's history, the event marked a critical juncture that historically has been associated with notable price fluctuations and increased investor interest. Here is everything you need to know about this key milestone.

How often do halvings occur?Halvings occur approximately once every four years, and they are expected to continue until the year 2140, when the amount of bitcoin in circulation is forecast to reach its maximum supply.
What is the maximum supply of bitcoin?With a capped supply of 21 million bitcoin, halvings represent a step closer to bitcoin’s max supply limit.
What is the current award for mining bitcoin?The current award for mining bitcoin is 3.125 BTC (down from 6.25 BTC prior to the April 2024 halving event).

What is Bitcoin “Halving”?

Bitcoin halving is designed to control the supply of new bitcoin entering circulation. Bitcoin operates on a decentralized network where transactions are verified and added to the blockchain ledger by miners. These miners are rewarded with bitcoin for their computational efforts, which in turn introduces new coins into circulation. The term “halving” refers to the scheduled reduction by half of these mining rewards. By reducing the rate at which new bitcoin are created, halving creates scarcity and limits the total supply of bitcoins that will ever exist. This controlled supply is a fundamental aspect of bitcoin’s design and contributes to its appeal for many investors.

Why does Halving Matter?

The previous bitcoin halvings occurred in November 2012, July 2016, and May 2020. Historically, the price of bitcoin has increased immediately prior to, as well as after, these halving events.

For example, in the 30 days preceding the July 9, 2016 halving event, bitcoin’s price rose from $574.63 to $650.96, a 13% increase. In the 30 days preceding the May 11, 2020 halving event, bitcoin’s price rose from $6,859.08 to $8,601.80, a 25% increase. The total calendar year returns for bitcoin in 2016 and 2020 were 124% and 303%, respectively. The 30 day performance prior to the 2024 halving has been less pronounced, rising 1%, though bitcoin's year to date price has increased 46%.

Historically, Bitcoin Has Rallied Before and After Halving Events

Bitcoin’s Next Halving 2024: Market Impact and What to Expect | ProShares (1)

Source: Bloomberg

Refer to the graph below for bitcoin rallies before and after halving events.

Bitcoin Halvings: History of BTC Prices

Bitcoin’s Next Halving 2024: Market Impact and What to Expect | ProShares (2)

Source: Bloomberg, as of 12/31/23. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

What to expect.

The reduction in the supply of new bitcoin resulting from halving, coupled with potential increased demand, can create a supply-demand imbalance that may contribute to price appreciation. However, it’s important to note that the halving itself is not the sole factor influencing bitcoin’s price. Other market factors, investor sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions can also play significant roles in the price of bitcoin increasing or decreasing around halving events.

Investors should focus on the potential for increased volatility, possible consolidation within the mining industry, and potentially consequential shifts in the broader cryptocurrency market:

  • Increased volatility. As evidenced by past data, bitcoin has experienced significant price moves during halving years. While, historically, those moves have been higher, the opposite could occur.
  • Consolidation within the bitcoin mining industry. Lower block rewards may impact less-efficient miners’ profitability, possibly causing some to cease operations.
  • Potential for higher prices in other cryptocurrencies. While the halving is specific to bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies have made notable moves during halving years as well. Ether, which has historically maintained a strong correlation to bitcoin prices, rose from $129.63 to $737.80 during the 2020 halving, a 469% increase.

ProShares, a global leader in crypto-linked ETFs, offers a broad suite of products to help investors target the performance of the world’s largest cryptocurrencies, and position their portfolios in response to the April 2024 halving event.

These ETFs do not invest directly in bitcoin or ether.

Bitcoin’s Next Halving 2024: Market Impact and What to Expect | ProShares (2024)

FAQs

Bitcoin’s Next Halving 2024: Market Impact and What to Expect | ProShares? ›

The next Bitcoin halving is set for ~April 19, 2024, bringing opportunities and uncertainties for the Bitcoin community. This event, built into Bitcoin's foundational code, changes the rewards for miners and could significantly influence Bitcoin's value and role within the broader ecosystem.

What will happen after Bitcoin halving in 2024? ›

After the halving, the rate of issuance of new bitcoin as well as the rewards for successful bitcoin miners are cut in half. There can only be 21 million bitcoin, and fewer new tokens entering circulation could impact bitcoin prices. That's why the halving is watched closely by miners and investors alike.

Will Bitcoin go up or down after halving? ›

What will the impact be on the bitcoin price? Halving reduces the supply of new bitcoins, which should in theory increase the price. It is an economic axiom that if demand for an asset remains stable while its supply decreases, its price should go up.

What price will Bitcoin reach in 2024? ›

Bitcoin, which has been synonymous with volatility, has experienced dramatic price movements since its inception in 2009, reaching highs of $73,000 by 2024. Amid the current downward trend, experts expect a bullish surge by the year-end.

How will Bitcoin halving affect other coins? ›

Bitcoin Halving ripples through supply-demand dynamics, affecting prices and sentiment, shaping the trajectory of various altcoins in the crypto ecosystem. The 2024 Halving is expected to amplify these dynamics.

Will Bitcoin halving affect Ethereum? ›

Ethereum (ETH) faces indirect consequences during Bitcoin halving events due to increased market interest and investment in cryptocurrencies. Typically, Ethereum benefits from the increased crypto market news exposure, resulting in favorable results.

Should I buy Bitcoin before or after halving? ›

Consider this: if it were universally anticipated that bitcoin's value would surge immediately following the 2024 halving, investors would likely move to acquire bitcoin before the event, driving up its price in the present rather than in the future.

How long after Bitcoin halving does the price go up? ›

“Historically, bitcoin has experienced notable price increases in the six months following each halving event. In fact, bitcoin reached new all-time highs in each four-year period between the previous halving events,” Binance CEO Richard Teng told The Block.

How much will 1 Bitcoin be worth in 2025? ›

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2030
YearPrice
2025$ 66,878.50
2026$ 70,222.43
2027$ 73,733.55
2030$ 85,355.80
1 more row

Is Bitcoin halving good for price? ›

The Bitcoin Halving takes place about every four years and reduces the block reward by 50%. This lowers the supply of bitcoins entering the market, which increases scarcity and can act to raise its price if market conditions remain the same.

Will Bitcoin mining be profitable after halving? ›

It is important for companies dedicated to Bitcoin mining to know that the halving affects the less productive or less efficient miners. Although the production cost is the same, the reward is lower, which causes profitability to be very high.

What will $1000 of Bitcoin be worth in 2030? ›

If Wood is correct and Bitcoin does reach $3.8 million by 2030, an investment of $1,000 would be worth over $60,000. This would result in a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 100%. Read Next: Bitcoin has jumped another 45% already this year – how much would you need to get started today?

Should I sell or hold Bitcoin? ›

You might want to sell your crypto under some specific circ*mstances. If there is a lack of blockchain development progress or a string of negative news, you might want to sell your cryptocurrency. If you've reached your investing goals or want to reallocate your holding, you might want to sell your cryptocurrency.

Which crypto will explode in 2024? ›

Our list of the next big crypto coins to explode in 2024 (x100 Bull Run) : EarthMeta ($EMT) – AI-driven Metaverse platform for decentralized governance and digital real estate. Folki ($FOLKI) – Meme coin integrating with the metaverse.

Should I invest during Bitcoin halving? ›

"As the halving approaches, speculation typically increases, potentially leading to heightened volatility in the bitcoin market," he says. "Investors might buy into bitcoin in anticipation of potential price increases, but there's no certainty or guarantee of that and, quite frankly, this only adds to the volatility."

Will crypto prices increase after halving? ›

Generally, halving seems to have triggered price increases in the past. According to research by crypto tax consultancy CoinLedger in the six months following the last two halvings, the value of BTC increased by 51% and 83% respectively.

How should I prepare for Bitcoin halving? ›

Stay Informed: Keep up with the latest market trends and news. The crypto landscape can change rapidly, and staying informed will help you make educated decisions. Assess Your Investment Strategy: Consider how the halving may impact your long-term investment strategy.

Will BTC crash after halving? ›

The halving will likely not cause a significant movement in price on the day it happens. Part of the economic impact of the halving has likely already occurred, with investors buying bitcoin in anticipation of the event, and the aftershocks of the halving will continue for months or years afterward, experts say.

Should I buy Ethereum or Bitcoin in 2024? ›

Ethereum is second only to bitcoin (BTC) in terms of market capitalisation, coming in at £372 billion compared with bitcoin's £1.1 trillion. As of 18 March 2024, one bitcoin will set you back by around £53,800 while an investor would need roughly £2,820 to buy ether.

Can Ethereum reach 100k? ›

Ethereum's chart doesn't support moving to $100k in the coming years. While ETH to $100,000 might happen at a certain point in time, it won't happen before 2030, is what we confidently can say. Here is a path to $10,000 though.

What happens when Bitcoin halving ends? ›

The amount drops in half each time a new halving takes place. For instance, after the first halving, the reward for bitcoin mining dropped to 25 BTC per block. The last halving should occur in 2140. At that point, there will be 21 million BTC in circulation and no more coins will be created.

What will Bitcoin be worth at the end of 2025? ›

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2030
YearPrice
2024$ 64,264.05
2025$ 67,477.25
2026$ 70,851.12
2027$ 74,393.67
1 more row

What will Bitcoin look like in 5 years? ›

Investors considering the long term should see two halvings over the next five years. The next one will occur sometime in 2028 and reduce mining rewards to 1.5625 Bitcoin. Think of it like this: Bitcoin mining rewards will only be a quarter of what they are today within the next five years.

What is a realistic prediction for Bitcoin in 2030? ›

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been on a fantastic run over the past year and a half -- it's now up by 299% since the start of 2023. That growth has slowed a bit, as the price of the crypto is down 6% from its all-time high that was reached in March.

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