Anthony Hughes, cofounder and CEO, Tech Elevator.
“Is software engineering a dying field?”
“Is coding dead?”
“Are the tech layoffs a sign that demand for tech workers is shrinking?”
“Will AI replace software developers?”
These are only a few Google search queries that have crept up the ranks over the past several weeks, plaguing the minds of employers and aspiring developers. Alongside the rise of more sophisticated artificial intelligence (AI), like ChatGPT, comes alarming rumors about the demise of people-powered software development—but they’re wrong.
The emphasis on a digital-first organization will only increase the demand for developers, analysts and related roles. It’s one of the many reasons that software developer was named the best job in America on U.S. News and World Report's "100 Best Jobs" list (not to mention the median salary of $120,730).
However, that doesn’t mean the field of software development won’t evolve. Akin to how carpenters improve their efficiency with better tools, software developers now have new tools to work with. Further, as anyone who's ever bought a highly sought new piece of technology has probably found, even the sleekest tools require maintenance, troubleshooting and upgrading. This remains true for solutions like ChatGPT, which still requires expertise to run.
The recent high-profile layoffs in the tech industry have caused a fair bit of panic, but rather than being an ominous predictor of a freefall, it’s simply a bit of course correction—it’s common for large organizations to dial back in R&D when they expanded too aggressively.
Additionally, although companies such as Google, Amazon and Microsoft have made headlines, they aren’t the exclusive employers of tech talent. Major organizations across all industries hire technology talent—and software developers will always be needed to make their systems work. In fact, the top industries currently hiring software developers include finance and insurance, healthcare, automotive and manufacturing.
To fully examine and counter the claims of the “end of an era,” the following two trends need to be looked at separately.
Tech Trends That Shouldn't Be Ignored
1. The demand for software developers is growing.
Data reported by the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (paywall) suggests that layoffs remained largely unchanged despite the headlines at the historically low number of 1.4 million, and the market is extraordinarily resilient. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts a 26% increase in employment for software developers over the next 10 years.
2. Disruption within the industry is inevitable.
According to McKinsey analysts, across eight economies, more than 100 million workers will have to switch occupations by 2030—and job growth will be concentrated in high-skill jobs and STEM fields.
We’ve already begun to experience disruption in technology as the pandemic accelerated digital technologies adoption in areas such as grocery stores, manufacturing sites and beyond. As the landscape continues to shift, we can expect even greater increases in digital technology adoption, such as expanding self-service features in stores and robotics automation in paperwork. Each sector disruption will come with a need for advanced technology in that space.
Holistically, when we look toward the future and potential of coding careers, we can view them through a three-tiered model.
The Three Tiers Of Coding Careers
Tier 1: Current State
This describes the need for full-stack work, which is fulfilled through available software engineering jobs across industries. Digital transformation and automation are still occurring at a larger and larger scale; new systems must be built, and the existing systems must be maintained. There will be a continued demand for this work, although it may expand to encompass some of the basics of AI and machine learning.
Tier 2: Emerging
This includes work that's on the cutting edge and emerging among companies (e.g., ChatGPT or AI more broadly). This category is currently growing, and it will become more usable over time. But, the availability of a powerful tool doesn’t mean you can skip the fundamentals—you still need to know the mechanics of how it works, when to use it and where it's beneficial.
Transformer-based tools such as ChatGPT can help you identify common patterns and boilerplate code, but there are caveats: The code is often extrapolated from a generic or simplified scenario, or it may be based on obsolete versions of software or out-of-date standards. A trained professional is still needed to differentiate between quality code and poor code, as well as to avoid security issues.
Tier 3: Future
This describes the work that we don’t know is needed yet but will emerge in the coming years. For example, the need for advanced data science and 3-D modeling wasn’t necessarily anticipated when we were students considering our future careers. This presents a ripe opportunity to imagine a future of coding and tech that would compel even more people to want to pursue it as a career. It would also create its own set of needs. Consider this: How would your industry use coding in a way they aren’t now?
And as is the case with software development broadly, these roles won’t only be relevant to the technology sector but also to finance (e.g., software developers can support quantitative analysis), healthcare and pharmaceuticals, manufacturing, biotechnology, gaming, retail and beyond.
Hello, World
softwareDeveloper.reply("I'm alive and kicking. The reports of my death have been grossly exaggerated.");
Ultimately, the development of the smartphone didn’t eradicate the need for computers, the rise of autonomous vehicles hasn’t eliminated drivers and technologies like ChatGPT won’t eradicate the need for coders. In fact, rather than replacing the existing method, they’re more likely to evolve them, and the demand for software development will continue to exponentially increase.
Bottom line: The tech layoffs are a false alarm, and the emergence of sophisticated AI isn’t an existential threat. At its core, software development isn’t solely about writing lines of code—it’s about solving problems, and as technology use cases continue to expand as more business opportunities emerge, software developers will be needed more than ever to build the solutions.
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