'Deniers Are Crypto's Flat Earthers' as Markets Flash 83% Odds of Bitcoin ETF Approval (2024)

Bitcoin (BTC) fell 7% on Wednesday, with reports of an analyst’s opinion on the expected U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval later this month contributing to a flush of highly-levered futures tracking the largest cryptocurrency.

While professional analysts remain mixed on the market impact of the approval, expected by Jan. 15, they largely forecast a positive decision from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as does the crypto community, which is betting on it using prediction market Polymarket.

“ETF deniers are crypto’s flat earthers,” wrote one user on the platform who had seemingly purchased 2,800 “yes” bets on a positive decision.

Polymarket allows users to bet on topics including sports, politics, and pop culture. Prices represent the current probability of an event taking place and range from $0 to 99 cents – resolving to $1 when any bet is ended.

One popular market is the “Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15?” bet, which has attracted almost $1 million in volume from hundreds of users.

"This market will resolve to 'Yes' if any spot Bitcoin ETF receives approval from the SEC by January 15, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No,'" conditions of the bet say. "The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used."

'Deniers Are Crypto's Flat Earthers' as Markets Flash 83% Odds of Bitcoin ETF Approval (1)

Over 83% of bets are in favor, similar to a “90% probability” of the approval given by ETF analysts.

Polymarket user comments suggest that even those betting against the decision expect an ETF to be approved at some point, but not by the wager's deadline.

Billions in directional bitcoin trades are resting on the ETF decision, making it one of the most influential in recent years. Data shows funding rates for bullish bets on bitcoin reached a record high earlier this week, indicating a heightened appetite for gaining exposure to the asset regardless of associated costs.

Edited by Sheldon Reback.

'Deniers Are Crypto's Flat Earthers' as Markets Flash 83% Odds of Bitcoin ETF Approval (2024)

FAQs

Did bitcoin ETF approval odds raised to 90% by Bloomberg analysts drop on polymarket? ›

Odds of a spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved in the U.S. have risen to more than 90%, two influential analysts at Bloomberg said, while crypto market participants at betting platform Polymarket became more pessimistic, trimming the odds to 85%. For full coverage of bitcoin ETFs, click here.

What is the risk of bitcoin ETF? ›

The primary risk of spot Bitcoin ETFs lies in Bitcoin's inherent volatility, which can lead to significant fluctuations in the ETF value. Investors must be prepared for rapid price changes and potential losses. Additionally, ETF management involves fees, such as expense ratios, which can impact overall returns.

Is the bitcoin ETF going to be approved? ›

Yes and no. There were already crypto-related ETFs and trusts out there, but there had never been a spot Bitcoin ETF on the market before the Jan. 2024 approval. These recently approved ETFs are the first cryptocurrency funds to trade on a major exchange and hold Bitcoin directly.

How will bitcoin ETF affect the price of bitcoin? ›

Increase prices.

While a spot bitcoin ETF does not directly affect the price of bitcoin, the increased demand and purchasing of bitcoin by these ETFs could boost the price over time.

What will happen to GBTC if Bitcoin ETF is approved? ›

The approval of the application and effectiveness of the registration statement will allow GBTC to operate as a spot Bitcoin ETF and will make it among the first such products to be brought to market in the U.S. GBTC shares will be listed on NYSE Arca under the Ticker: GBTC.

Why is Bitcoin falling after ETF approval? ›

Possible Reasons for the Price Decline

Profit-Taking: The anticipation of ETF approvals likely fueled a run-up in Bitcoin's price. Once the approval was confirmed, investors may have decided to lock in profits, leading to a sell-off. Market Expectations vs.

Is it worth investing in Bitcoin ETF? ›

If long-term price performance is your only investment goal, then the new Bitcoin ETFs make a lot of sense. However, you could prefer direct-asset ownership of Bitcoin if you are concerned about the regulatory or legal aspects of crypto.

Is my money safe in an ETF? ›

Key Takeaways. ETFs can be safe investments if used correctly, offering diversification and flexibility. Indexed ETFs, tracking specific indexes like the S&P 500, are generally safe and tend to gain value over time. Leveraged ETFs can be used to amplify returns, but they can be riskier due to increased volatility.

Does a Bitcoin ETF actually own Bitcoin? ›

Spot Bitcoin ETFs directly hold Bitcoins, but derivatives-based Bitcoin ETFs use financial instruments like futures contracts to replicate Bitcoin's prices. Spot Bitcoin ETFs thus have direct ownership of Bitcoins.

Does Charles Schwab have a Bitcoin ETF? ›

Clients looking for spot bitcoin ETFs or spot ether ETFs can find these and other third-party ETF and mutual fund products available at Schwab.

What is the disadvantage of Bitcoin ETF? ›

Disadvantages of Crypto ETFs

1 When buying shares of an ETF, you pay your brokerage's trade fees and the fund's expense ratio. Crypto ETFs have expense ratios from 0.39% to 1.5%, much higher than the transaction fees charged by crypto exchanges. 9.

How much will a Bitcoin ETF cost? ›

There are a few important considerations when choosing which Bitcoin ETF you want to purchase. The first thing to look at is each issuer's annual management fee. The current ETF offerings range in fees from 0.21 – 1.5%, with ARK Invest as the cheapest and Grayscale as the highest.

Who is the custodian of the Bitcoin ETF? ›

Coinbase is serving as the custodian for eight of the new bitcoin ETF entrants, including BlackRock's (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), as well as Grayscale (GBTC), which converted its bitcoin trust to a spot bitcoin ETF.

Why not invest in Bitcoin ETF? ›

Fees tend to be higher than other ETFs. Investors do not own the cryptocurrency directly, and they must defer to the fund's management strategy. Unlike cryptocurrencies, ETFs can only be traded during market hours. Crypto markets on which the ETFs are based still largely unregulated.

What is the SEC decision on the Bitcoin ETF? ›

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejected spot bitcoin ETFs for more than a decade, hoping to protect investors from market manipulation. But the SEC was forced to approve them last month after Grayscale Investments won a court challenge.

Why Bitcoin falls to the lowest price since December as ETF hype fizzles out? ›

Bitcoin slid to its lowest price since mid-December as the speculative demand for the token triggered by hype about new exchange-traded funds dissipates, leaving the cryptocurrency in the red since the start of 2024.

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