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The perceived value of a college degree is declining among adults without one, while their view of licenses and certificates' value has gone up, according to new research commissioned by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Released Wednesday, the research focuses on 18- to 30-year-olds who never attended a two- or four-year college or who left before earning a degree — all referred to non-enrollees — to understand their attitudes about higher education. Edge Research and the consulting firm HCM Strategists conducted the study, which also tracked the perceptions of high school students.
Among the 3,130 non-enrollees surveyed in 2023, 57% said a four-year degree is a good or excellent value, down from 60% in 2022. In comparison, 75% said earning a license is a good value, up from 70% the year before. Nearly the same share, 72% called professional certificates a good value, rising from 67% in the last survey.
Convincing non-enrollees of the value of higher education will become increasingly important for colleges. Beginning next year, colleges are expecting a sharp drop in high school graduates as a result of declining birth rates during the Great Recession.
High school juniors and seniors are more likely than non-enrollees to say a college degree is important for getting a better job, earning more money and maintaining job security. But as competition increases over traditional-age students, reaching out to older and nontraditional students will become increasingly important.
The new research suggests that colleges need to prove to potential students that their degrees have more value than quicker and less expensive alternatives.
Students can get a better job with a two- or four-year degree, Terrell Halaska Dunn, consultant to HCM Strategists, said Tuesday during a press call. But colleges need to prove that.
"Higher ed has a lot of work to do to convince these audiences of its value," Dunn said. "But although they're skeptical, they are persuadable."
Information and perception
Higher education researchers have found that college graduates often have better financial outcomes than those with high school diplomas alone.
But prospective college students aren't getting their information from economists, said Patrick Methvin, director of postsecondary success at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. And their sources matter.
Last summer, researchers for the Gates report conducted several focus groups with high school students and non-enrollees, and they also surveyed over 4,800 members of these groups in the fall.
They found that high school students received mostly positive impressions of college, with 47% of the 1,718 juniors and seniors surveyed getting information from school counselors and 44% from parents.
High school students are inundated with higher ed information, but following graduation, they must seek it out on their own.
The primary source of college information for non-enrollees is through Google searches, with 39% listing it as a go-to, the research found. Around one-third, 34%, said they used college websites, and 29% turned to social media.
The information in internet searches and social media gave a majority of prospective college students a negative perception of higher ed, they told analysts.
"They are not hearing about the demonstrable value of higher education and a consistent way," Methvin said Tuesday. "What they are hearing is things like the Supreme Court decision on race-conscious admissions and DEI attacks, deliberation on test-optional and legacy admissions."
Methvin added that both high school students and non-enrollees often hear about crippling college loan debt — something that could affect their lives before they even step foot on campus.
For instance, more than a quarter of respondents whose parents attended college, 27%, said their parents are still paying off their own education loans, Pam Loeb, principal at Edge Research said.
Problem areas for potential students
Both high school students and non-enrollees reported difficulties on the road to college.
While high school students say they feel academically prepared for college, they voiced uncertainties about what they can afford and how to navigate financial aid. They also expressed concern about the logistics of attending college, including picking a major and balancing their responsibilities while enrolled.
Colleges can help potential students more clearly see the path from higher ed to a career if they provide counseling on academic, financial and professional issues, the research said.
Non-enrollees also identified paying for and navigating college as pain points. But they further said they have to contend with the opportunity costs, like lost income. They also said they required more guidance through the application process, the research noted.
Reaching out to non-enrollees and directly addressing their concerns can help reengage them in higher education, Dunn said.
