Do State Firearm Laws Affect Racial and Ethnic Groups Differently? (2024)

Despite growing evidence that some gun laws may reduce firearm deaths and injuries, we know very little about whether these laws have differing effects on people of different racial and ethnic groups.

July 16, 2024

Since 2014, the already high rate of gun violence in the United States has risen; this trend accelerated during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In 2021, nearly 49,000 people were killed by firearms, a 23-percent increase since 2019 (Centers for Disease Control, undated-e).

But the cost of this violence is not felt evenly across population groups. The risk of firearm homicide is much higher for Black populations than for White populations, a disparity that has been further exacerbated in trends in the past six years. In 2018, non-Hispanic Black people were 11 times more likely to be the victims of firearm homicides than non-Hispanic White people. By 2021, non-Hispanic Black people were 15 times more likely to be the victims of firearm homicides than non-Hispanic White people (Centers for Disease Control, undated-e).

These disparities are rooted in structural inequities in the criminal justice system, housing and education, and employment (Bailey, Feldman, and Bassett, 2021; Betz et al., 2021). Firearm laws may also play a role in shaping or contributing to racial and ethnic disparities in violence victimization (Jahn et al., 2023; Sehgal, 2020; Tilstra et al., 2022).

Population groups who are at higher risk of firearm violence potentially have much more to gain from laws that reduce violence, but those laws may also be structured or enforced in ways that minimize harm to some populations more than others. Despite growing evidence about the effects of gun laws because of recent growth in more-rigorous gun policy research, we still know very little about whether these effects are evenly distributed across population subgroups.

Race/Ethnicity	Homicide	Suicide	Other
Non-Hispanic Black or African American	24.3	4.4	0.8
Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native	7	8.6	1.5
Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander	5.5	3.5	0.7
Hispanic	4.7	2.9	0.4
Non-Hispanic more than one race	2.8	3.2	0.3
Non-Hispanic White	1.9	10.5	0.4
Non-Hispanic Asian	0.9	1.7	0.1

SOURCE: Adapts information from Centers for Disease Control, undated-e.

Literature Review

To better understand how gun policies might affect different racial and ethnic population groups, RAND researchers reviewed existing studies that have evaluated potential differential effects of state firearm laws by race and ethnicity (Smart et al., 2023).

Researchers scanned studies that examined the relationship between 18 classes of gun laws and eight outcomes, identifying the subset of studies that estimated policy effects for subpopulations by race or ethnicity.

Of the hundreds of reviewed studies, 15 estimated effects by race or ethnicity. Most studies focused on homicide, violent crime, or nonfatal assaults. Because some studies evaluated the effect of more than one policy on more than one outcome, those 15 studies yielded 57 policy-outcome comparisons (see the figure below).

Policy	Homicide	Suicide	Crime	Justifiable homicide
Domestic violence prohibitions	21	0	0	0
Stand-your-ground laws	7	0	1	1
Background check requirements	7	0	0	0
Concealed-carry laws	5	0	1	0
Extreme-risk protection orders	4	4	0	0
Permit-to-purchase laws	3	0	0	0
Child-access prevention laws	1	0	0	0
Waiting period requirements	1	1	0	0

Most studies evaluated a few common types of laws—concealed-carry laws (five studies; six estimates), stand-your-ground laws (four studies; nine estimates), and background check requirements (four studies; seven estimates). Although domestic violence prohibitions were the focus of only three studies, these studies considered a range of domestic-violence-related policies and were responsible for 21 of the effect comparisons identified.

Many other law types had little to no scrutiny. Only one study looked at the potential differential effects of child-access prevention laws, while none evaluated such laws as gun-free zones, bans on assault weapons or low-quality handguns, or prohibitions around mental illness.

What the Studies Tell Us

The studies do not provide evidence of significantly different relative effects on firearm injury or violent crime. A few studies did suggest that the effects of firearm policies differed by race, but results were often puzzling or contradictory.

One study found that stand-your-ground laws produced significantly greater increases in firearm homicide rates among White victims compared with rates among Black victims (McClellan and Tekin, 2017), but these results did not replicate in a subsequent study (Degli Esposti et al., 2022).

Studies that evaluated the differential effects of policies prohibiting firearm possession among people who are subject to domestic violence restraining orders or who have been convicted of violence misdemeanors also produced mixed results. One study showed that laws restricting those with a history of violence from buying or owning firearms were more effective in preventing intimate partner homicide involving White victims than they were for Black victims (Wallin, Holliday, and Zeoli, 2022). However, another study showed greater benefits of such laws for Black victims than for White victims (Knopov et al., 2019). Because the studies covered different geographic areas and timelines, these varied results may reflect differences in the implementation of the laws.

For most other policies evaluated, the studies estimated effects by race that were not significantly different from each other. However, nearly all of these studies looked at differential effects in relative terms (for example, comparing whether an outcome, such as homicides, increased or decreased by the same percentage).

However, even when studies show no difference in the relative effects of a law, the absolute effect can differ significantly because of the large racial disparities in firearm violence.

To illustrate this point, consider a hypothetical law that decreases the number of Black people who die from firearm homicide by 10 percent—relative to the number of people who would have died without the law—while the same law decreases firearm homicide for White people by 20 percent. The law is relatively more beneficial for White people than for Black people because deaths are reduced by a greater proportion. However, if you express the same law effect in terms of how much it shifts the mortality rates, the pattern is reversed because Black people are at much higher risk of firearm homicide. According to 2020 mortality rates, a 10-percent decrease in firearm homicides of Black people would shift the firearm homicide mortality rate from 25.9 to 23.3 per 100,000: 2.6 fewer deaths per 100,000. A 20-percent decrease in firearm homicides of White people would shift the mortality rate from 2.8 to 2.2: 0.6 fewer deaths per 100,000.

The hypothetical law is much more beneficial for White people than for Black people when effects are expressed relative to the same group’s firearm homicide risk without the law, but the law is more beneficial for Black people than for White people if the same effect is expressed in terms of how much it shifts the absolute risk of dying from firearm homicide. Both ways of viewing the same effect are valid and useful ways to think about racially disparate impacts of laws, but there does not have to be agreement on the size or the direction of the racial differences.

Opportunities for Improvement

Research so far has not provided good evidence of a difference in relative effects of firearm laws on racial or ethnic groups. However, this gap does not necessarily imply that differential effects do not exist or that they are rare or insignificant.

Researchers’ efforts to study these potential differences face considerable barriers. Gun policy research has been underfunded for several decades, contributing to the lack of studies in this area.

The focus on a narrow range of outcomes (e.g., death, crime) and the very broad treatment of race and ethnicity categorizations (e.g., White versus non-White) reflect the limitations of the data available to researchers. Mortality datasets are some of the only sources of data that provide good information about race and ethnicity, but deaths from firearm violence—while much too frequent—are statistically rare. As a result, some demographic subgroups do not provide a large enough dataset to estimate differential effects. However, data on more-frequent outcomes, such as injuries and hospitalizations, are not available on a national scale. Building data infrastructure to address these limitations is a challenging task.

Study methodology could also be improved by clearly including a test for differential racial effects in study design and by being transparent about the quality and completeness of the demographic data.

Conclusion

Despite growing evidence about the impacts of gun policies on firearm-related harms and benefits, we still know very little about how these effects differ across racial and ethnic groups.

Because of the high cost of firearm violence in the United States—and the racial and ethnic disparities in who bears that cost—it is critical to develop a better understanding of how the effects of firearm policies are distributed across the population.

Establishing good evidence on whether differential effects exist will require better data infrastructure and more-rigorous research.

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Project Credits

Kekeli Sumah (Design) and Heather McCracken (Content, Digital Production)