Earnings cover key measure for picking dividend payers    (2024)

Investors in Pearson were given a nasty shock yesterday after the global education firm slashed its dividend for 2017 amid a dire market update which included yet another profit warning under its chief executive John Fallon.

The move hit Pearson shareholders hard as the firm lost a quarter of its value in one session, providing a fresh reminder that many FTSE 100 company dividend payouts remain vulnerable in the current economic climate.

Analysts expect Pearson's dividend to be cut in half by 2017, but warned the hit to investors could be even deeper if it successfully sells off Penguin Random House as planned.

Calculating: Working out a firm's earnings cover is one way of safeguarding your investments

To avoid losing out on dividend payments in the future, experts have urged investors to focus on picking stocks with healthy earnings cover and avoid being enticed by high yields.

Dividend/earnings cover (same thing) is used by money managers and investors to calculate whether a firm can afford its payouts to shareholders from the profits it has made.

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Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: 'Ahead of yesterday’s calamity, Pearson had in theory been offering a very tempting dividend yield of 6.4 per cent for 2017, based on a forecast dividend of 52p and the pre-collapse share price of 808p.'

'But dividend cover at Pearson was just 1.2 times - forecast earnings per share of 64p dividend per forecast dividend per share of 52p for 2017.'

He added: 'Ideally dividend cover should be 2.0 times and the skinny 1.2 earnings cover ratio left Pearson with limited margin for error on its profit guidance.

High yield, high risk: In an ideal world dividend cover should work out at two times earnings or more, but latest research from AJ Bell shows many FTSE 100 firms are falling short

'Yesterday’s 27 per cent drop in the share price wipes out six years of income at a stroke for anyone caught holding the stock.

'That is why there are few worse investments than an income stock which cuts its dividend, as the share price is likely to fall sharply, adding to the damage done by the loss of income.'

Earnings dividend cover?

- Professional stock pickers can often be heard using the terms earnings and dividend cover. They are the same thing.

- Itis calculated by dividing earnings per share by the dividend per share.

- The higher the ratio, the greater the comfort that a company can afford and sustain its dividend pay-outs

- A lower ratio means a cut in the dividend is more likely if profits fall

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It has been a tough few months for dividend payouts after Easyjet cut its dividend by 2.5 per cent back in November.

This was followed just a week later by FTSE 250 listed outsource firm Mitie, who proposed to cut its interim dividend by 26 per cent to 4p.

While last week aerospace and defence group Cobham cancelled its dividend altogether after it issued another profit warning.

Analysts say there is worse to come in 2017 - with support services Capita next in line.

Mould continued: 'The pay-out which looks at the greatest risk looks to be Capita. Although the support services firm offers cover of 2.1 times, the company has already dished out two profit warnings and the experiences of sector peers like Mitie, Serco and Interserve suggest that when things start to go wrong they can really go wrong, as complex contract bidding processes soak up cash.'

Pearson was the biggest faller on the FTSE 100 education giant Pearson, which plunged more than 25 per cent after it warned on profits and said it was planning to sell its publishing unit Penguin Random House

Non-life insurers Direct Line and Admiralcould also provide a unwelcome surprise in 2017.

Mould said: 'Direct Line’s full-year results are due on 28 February and Admiral’s full-year results are due 1 March.

Solid: Private equity firm 3i has a dividend cover of 2.9x earnings

'Sterling’s fall will be pressuring car parts costs and lower oil prices could encourage more driving (and thus more accidents) while a Government review due from the Lord Chancellor on 31 January could review the formula used to calculate compensation in serious injury claims.

'There are also suggestions Elizabeth Truss may cut the so-called Ogden rate and oblige car insurers to hold more cash on the balance sheet to meet their liabilities, thus reducing the amount of spare liquidity they can use to pay dividends.'

But it is not all doom and gloom as more than 40 FTSE 100 firms do offer dividends cover above the all important 2.0 times mark.

Stephen Hester has slowly turned around insurer RSA , while Simon Borrows 3i is also a top performer - even allowing for problems at the Agent Provocateur chain which has been heavily written down in value in 2016 and is up for sale.

Bonus: These stocks forecast to offer the highest dividend yield in 2017 with dividend cover of over 2 times earnings

Some links in this article may be affiliate links. If you click on them we may earn a small commission. That helps us fund This Is Money, and keep it free to use. We do not write articles to promote products. We do not allow any commercial relationship to affect our editorial independence.

Earnings cover key measure for picking dividend payers    (2024)

FAQs

How do you measure dividend coverage? ›

The dividend coverage ratio is calculated by dividing a company's annual EPS by its annual DPS or dividing its net income less required dividend payments to preferred shareholders by its dividends applicable to common stockholders.

What is a measure of how well earnings support dividend payments? ›

The payout ratio is a financial metric that shows the proportion of earnings a company pays its shareholders in the form of dividends. It's expressed as a percentage of the company's total earnings but it can refer to the dividends paid out as a percentage of a company's cash flow in some cases.

What measures the percentage of earnings that a firm pays in dividends? ›

The Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR) is the amount of dividends paid to shareholders in relation to the total amount of net income the company generates. In other words, the dividend payout ratio measures the percentage of net income that is distributed to shareholders in the form of dividends.

How do you measure the dividend policy? ›

Dividend policy is measured with dividend yield, payout ratio, large and small dividend payment status. Earnings management is measured with discretionary accruals, which are used as a proxy of accrual-based earnings management.

How do you measure dividends? ›

You'll find these in a company's 10-K annual report. Here is the formula for calculating dividends: Annual net income minus net change in retained earnings = dividends paid.

What is considered a good dividend cover? ›

Generally speaking, a DCR of 2 is viewed as good, as this indicates that a company has the capacity to pay its dividends twice over. A DCR of below 1.5 is viewed as a possible concern, signalling the use of loans.

What is the earnings coverage of preferred dividends ratio? ›

The preferred dividend coverage ratio is calculated by dividing a company's net income by its annual preferred dividend amount.

What is a good dividend payout ratio? ›

So, what counts as a “good” dividend payout ratio? Generally speaking, a dividend payout ratio of 30-50% is considered healthy, while anything over 50% could be unsustainable.

What is the dividend to earnings ratio? ›

To calculate the dividend payout ratio, the formula divides the dividend amount distributed in the period by the net income in the same period. For example, if a company issued $20 million in dividends in the current period with $100 million in net income, the payout ratio would be 20%.

What is a healthy dividend yield? ›

What Is a Good Dividend Yield? Yields from 2% to 6% are generally considered to be a good dividend yield, but there are plenty of factors to consider when deciding if a stock's yield makes it a good investment. Your own investment goals should also play a big role in deciding what a good dividend yield is for you.

Who determines the amount of earnings to be paid as dividends? ›

A dividend is a distribution of a company's earnings to eligible shareholders. Dividend payments and amounts are determined by the company's board of directors.

How do firms decide how much of their earnings to distribute as dividends? ›

The dividend payout amount is typically determined through forecasting long-term earnings and calculating a percentage of earnings to be paid out. Under the stable policy, companies may create a target payout ratio, which is a percentage of earnings that is to be paid to shareholders in the long-term.

What measures dividends? ›

It's a measure of how much incoming cash is "free" to pay out to stockholders and/or to grow the business. A free cash flow payout ratio greater than 100% means the company paid out more cash in dividends for the year than the "free" cash it took in.

How to pick dividend stocks? ›

Look at dividend growth

Generally speaking, you want to find companies that not only pay steady dividends but also increase them at regular intervals—say, once per year over the past three, five, or even 10 years.

How to evaluate a dividend policy? ›

The Dividend Relevance Theory evaluates a company's dividend policy based on the impact it has on shareholders' wealth. It considers factors such as the company's profitability, growth opportunities, stability of earnings, and the preferences of investors regarding current income versus capital gains.

How do you evaluate a dividend policy? ›

To evaluate the effectiveness of dividend policy, you need to compare and contrast the different types, models, factors, and measures of dividend policy, and analyze how they affect the financial performance and valuation of the company, as well as the preferences and expectations of different stakeholders.

How do you calculate dividend policy? ›

The dividend payout ratio can be calculated as the yearly dividend per share divided by the earnings per share (EPS), or equivalently, the dividends divided by net income (as shown below).

What is the formula for preferred dividend coverage? ›

The preferred dividend coverage ratio is calculated by dividing a company's net income by its annual preferred dividend amount.

How are insurance dividends calculated? ›

An annual dividend is a yearly payment granted to an insurance policyholder, often of a permanent life insurance or long-term disability policy. The dividend amount depends on factors such as profits made by the insurance company, investment performance, and the amount of money paid into the policy.

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