Futures contract | Brilliant Math & Science Wiki (2024)

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This is an introductory page in Options. If you are unfamiliar with any of the terms, you can refer to the Options Glossary.

A futures contract (future) is a standardized contract between two parties, to trade an asset at a specified price at a specified future date. The seller will deliver the underlying and the buyer will take delivery of the underlying and pay the agreed-upon price. The price that is agreed on is known as the future price or the delivery price and is determined when the contract is entered into. Since the price of the future is dependent on the price of the asset, this is a derivative instrument.

A futures contract is very similar to a forward contract. However, the futures market evolved to reduce the illiquidity and counter-party risk of the forward contract. A clearing house acts as the middleman, which performs the trade with both the buyer and seller. Clearinghouses overcome the potential credit risk by requiring the participants to put up an initial amount of cash, known as the initial margin. Futures positions are marked to market, and if there are insufficient funds, the exchange will require an additional maintenance margin, or is allowed to immediately liquidate the position.

True False

True or False?

A futures contract has very low counter-party risk.

Contents

  • Features of a Future
  • Payoff Diagrams
  • Pricing Futures Contracts

Features of a Future

Each contract is standardized. The following information has already been determined.

  1. The underlying asset, including its quality:
    The amount and quality of the underlying asset. For example, 1000 bushels of Grade 4 corn.

  2. The time of maturity \( T: \)
    The date at which the underlying is to be delivered. This could be a specific date or a time range.

  3. The place of delivery for physical underlying:
    The place(s) at which the underlying is to be delivered. This is often a centralized location that is close to the place of production or transport.
    Some futures contract are cash settled, which means that the seller of the future transfers the associated payoff in cash. This avoids having to deal with delivery or transportation concerns.

  4. The initial margin and margin maintenance amount:
    This is determined by the exchange. Typically, the initial margin is 2 to 10 percent of the full value of the futures contract. When the position moves against the trader leading to a drop below the maintenance amount, then the trader will receive a margin call to top up the margin account, or be forcibly liquidated out of his position.
    This allows the exchange to limit the amount of counter-party risk involved.

Note that the price of the contract is not stated. Instead, it is determined by market forces.

A futures contract is similar to a forward contract in that they both agree to trade an underlying at a specified future date. However, future contracts

  1. are traded through an exchange,
  2. are standardized,
  3. require a margin, and
  4. have negligible counter-party risk.

Your futures contract is invalidated You buy it back for $0 because they are bankrupt The bankruptcy court will decide a suitable settlement Nothing. Your contract is with the exchange The SEC will guarantee the contract

Futures contract | Brilliant Math & Science Wiki (1) You sell a May Gold Futures contract from a Lehman Brothers trader. What happens when Lehman collapses?

Image credit: The logo is the trademark of Lehman Brothers.

Payoff Diagrams

Futures contract | Brilliant Math & Science Wiki (2)

The value of a futures position at maturity is the difference between the delivery price \( K \) and the underlying price \( S_T \) at the time of maturity:

  • For a long position, the payoff is \( S_T - K \), and it will benefit from a higher underlying price.
  • For a short position, the payoff is \( K - S_T \), and it will benefit from a lower underlying price.

Pricing Futures Contracts

For further details, see Pricing Forward and Futures.

The value of the physical delivery can be priced as

\[ F = S_0 e ^ { rt }. \]

Increases. It is more expensive to borrow money Stays constant. Interest rate has no effect Decreases. More people want to place their money in the bank Increases. More people can borrow money to buy stocks Decreases. It is more expensive to borrow money

Futures contract | Brilliant Math & Science Wiki (3) How does the price of a future change as interest rate increases?

Image credit: Google Finance

Cite as: Futures contract. Brilliant.org. Retrieved from https://brilliant.org/wiki/futures-contract/

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Futures contract | Brilliant Math & Science Wiki (2024)

FAQs

How do you solve futures contracts? ›

The notional value of a futures contract demonstrates the value of the assets underlying the futures contract. To calculate the notional value of a futures contract, the contract size (in units) is multiplied by its current price. Notional value helps you understand and plan for the risks of trading futures contracts.

What is the formula for futures contracts? ›

Futures Contracts Pricing

Futures price = (Spot price * (1 + r)^t) + (net cost of carry)

What is the payoff of a futures contract? ›

The payoff for a person who buys a futures contract is similar to the payoff for a person who holds an asset. He has a potentially unlimited upside as well as a potentially unlimited downside.

What is the payoff diagram for futures? ›

The pay-off diagram of a financial derivative contract like futures is graphical representation showing the price of the underlying asset on the X-axis and profits on the upper Y-axis and losses on the lower Y-axis.

Is trading futures hard? ›

Remember that futures trading is hard work and requires a substantial investment of time and energy. Studying charts, reading market commentary, staying on top of news—it can be a lot for even the most seasoned trader.

Why do my trades always go wrong? ›

Poor Risk Management

Traders who fail to set and adhere to stop-loss orders or those who over-leverage their positions can suffer significant losses when the market moves against them. Using stop-loss orders can assist investors in controlling emotions and preventing hasty decisions driven by fear or greed.

How do you calculate the number of futures contracts? ›

The optimal futures contracts number is the optimal number of contracts needed to hedge a position. It is calculated by dividing the product of the optimal hedge ratio and the units of the position being hedged by the size of one futures contract.

How do you calculate the basis of a futures contract? ›

Basis is most often calculated as the difference between the cash price and the nearby (closest to expiration) fu‑ tures contract. For example, in June the wheat basis would be calculated using the current cash price minus the July futures contract price.

How do you calculate the fair value of a futures contract? ›

In the futures market, fair value is the equilibrium price for a futures contract or the point where the supply of goods matches demand. This is equal to the spot price and accounts for compounded interest and lost dividends resulting from the futures contract ownership versus a physical stock purchase.

What are the disadvantages of a futures contract? ›

Following are the risks associated with trading futures contracts:
  • Leverage. One of the chief risks associated with futures trading comes from the inherent feature of leverage. ...
  • Interest Rate Risk. ...
  • Liquidity Risk. ...
  • Settlement and Delivery Risk. ...
  • Operational Risk.

How do you calculate futures payoff? ›

The value of a futures position at maturity is the difference between the delivery price K K K and the underlying price S T S_T ST​ at the time of maturity: For a long position, the payoff is S T − K S_T - K ST​−K, and it will benefit from a higher underlying price.

What is the method of closing a futures contract? ›

After establishing a futures position, the primary decision you will make is when to close the position. To close an open position, you can take the opposite position in the same futures contract you are currently holding in your account.

What is the futures triangle method? ›

The Futures Triangle is a simple method to map three competing factors: the pull of the future, the push of the present, and the weight of history.

How do you calculate futures settlement? ›

For most Equity Index futures, daily settlement price for the front month is calculated using a volume weighted average price (VWAP) based on the last 30 seconds of the trading day.

How do futures contracts payout? ›

Settlement: As the delivery date approaches, the futures contract can be settled in one of two ways: physical delivery or cash settlement. In physical delivery, the seller delivers the underlying asset to the buyer. In cash settlement, the parties simply settle the net cash difference.

How to calculate the number of futures contracts? ›

The optimal futures contracts number is the optimal number of contracts needed to hedge a position. It is calculated by dividing the product of the optimal hedge ratio and the units of the position being hedged by the size of one futures contract.

How to calculate profit or loss on futures contracts? ›

For futures trading, the profit or loss is determined by the difference between the contract purchase price and the selling price, multiplied by the contract size and the number of contracts. The calculation becomes more nuanced in options trading due to the option's premium, intrinsic value, and time value.

How do you calculate futures contract risk? ›

To quantify the amount of the basis risk, an investor simply needs to take the current market price of the asset being hedged and subtract the futures price of the contract.

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