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Labour are on course to surpass Tony Blair’s landslide majority in 1997, according to YouGov’s first major poll of the general election campaign.
The pollsters’ MRP forecast, based on data from more than 58,000 people, suggests Sir Keir Starmer’s party will win a huge majority of 194, with some 422 seats, while the Conservatives could suffer their biggest loss since 1906, winning just 140 seats.
The poll –which came after Nigel Farage announced his intention to stand as an MP, in a blow to the Tories – also followed Redfield and Wilton’s second nationwide poll, of 10,000 people– which put the Tories on just 20 per cent, 26 points behind Labour.
Another mega-poll published over the weekend had earlier suggested that the Tories could win just 66 seats in parliament.
The result would be a Labour landslide, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party securing 476 MPs – a majority of 302 – once tactical voting has been taken into account.
This blog will keep track of every major poll released between now and the general election, and what it means for the parties.
Labour will win more southern seats than Tories, YouGov poll suggests
In a blow to Rishi Sunak, YouGov’s new poll suggests Labour could be on course to win more seats in the south of England than the Conservatives, even when excluding London.
Andy Gregory3 June 2024 21:42
YouGov poll suggests biggest Labour majority since 1924
YouGov’s MRP poll predicts Labour would win a 194-seat majority – which would mark the highest number since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.
Andy Gregory3 June 2024 21:09
The Lib Dems are on course to win 44 seats, according to YouGov’s new poll – which would be four times as many as in 2019.
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Andy Gregory3 June 2024 20:26
YouGov poll in graphs: How many seats could each party win?
Andy Gregory3 June 2024 20:05
Greens to gain a second seat – but no others –under new YouGov projections
The Green Party would gain its second seat in the Commons under YouGov’s new MRP poll projections, seizing Bristol Central while holding Brighton Pavilion.
But the prospects of achieving any further seats remain a distant prospect, with the party a considerable way behind Labour in all of the seats in which it is second place.
Andy Gregory3 June 2024 19:44
Reform not close to winning any of seats in which it is in second place, YouGov poll suggests
While YouGov’s polling was carried out prior to Nigel Farage’s announcement today, in the 27 seats where Reform had polled in second place ahead of the Tories, the party was not close to winning any of them.
Andy Gregory3 June 2024 19:24
Mapped: What would the election results look like under YouGov projections?
Andy Gregory3 June 2024 19:05
Labour leading Tories by 20 per cent, Survation polling suggests
New Survation polling also suggests that Labour has a 20-point lead over the Tories.
The survey of more than 15,000 people, carried out on behalf of the campaign group Best For Britain between 22 and 29 May, suggests that Sir Keir Starmer’s party is leading with 45 per cent of the vote.
Andy Gregory3 June 2024 18:47
January polling suggested Farage would win in Clacton
A Survation poll in January suggested that Nigel Farage standing in Clacton could see Reform surge from third place into pole position, notes commentator Professor Tim Bale.
Without Mr Farage in the picture, the Tories led with 38 to Reform’s 18 points. But with the ex-Ukipper standing in the Essex seat, Reform would secure 37 per cent of the vote, and the Tories just 27, the polling suggested.
As noted by Survation’s researcher Jack Peaco*ck, Clacton has the fourth highest proportion of Leave voters of any constituency (71.8 per cent), and was the only seat in which Ukip won a greater portion of the vote in 2015 than Boston and Skegness.
A total of 250 people in Clacton were polled over the phone on the question of a race without Mr Farage, and 264 were asked about the prospect of a race in which he did stand.
Andy Gregory3 June 2024 18:13
More than 130 seats hang on knife-edge in new YouGov poll
There are 131 seats in which the winning party is projected to have a lead of fewer than five per cent, according to YouGov’s new poll.
Those include Robert Jenrick’s Newark seat, Esther McVey in Tatton, and Karen Bradley in Staffordshire Moorlands.
Andy Gregory3 June 2024 17:48
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