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EIU report
Global trade growth is expected to rebound modestly in 2024, after a sharp slowdown in trade activity in 2023. The path to recovery, however, will not be straightforward. High interest rates, subdued Western demand and persistent economic fragility in China–compounded by geopolitical strains and climate change factors–present downside risks to this outlook. As these risks build, navigating the global trade landscape will become increasingly complicated.
EIU’s report provides our latest analysis of the critical trends and threats that will affect the global trade landscape.
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Topics included in this report:
Food security concerns will intensify, particularly over rice
Export restrictions on critical minerals and rare earths will come into greater focus
China’s worsening industrial overcapacity will exacerbate international trade frictions
The Israel-Hamas war worsens supply-chain disruptions and maritime trade risks
The development of port, road and rail infrastructure
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Middle East outlook 2024
The Israel-Hamas war will continue to reverberate throughout 2024 and fuel simmering resentment towards Israel and its Western allies. The outlook is bleak for Arab-Israeli relations, and Iran’s proxies will be more disruptive after a period of relative calm.
Africa outlook 2024
Africa will be the second-fastest-growing major region in 2024, boosted by the services sector, which continues to play an important role in East Africa. However, security threats, political instability and repayment burdens will be risks to watch next year.
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