Gold's Rising Tide: Unveiling the Q3 2025 Story
A Golden Quarter: Unprecedented Demand and Prices
The third quarter of 2025 witnessed an extraordinary surge in gold demand, setting new records and captivating investors worldwide. With prices soaring, demand reached unprecedented heights, painting a compelling narrative for the precious metal.
Demand and Value: A Dual Record-Breaking Act
Total gold demand, including over-the-counter (OTC) transactions, climbed 3% year-on-year to an impressive 1,313 tonnes - the highest quarterly figure on record. However, the value of this demand skyrocketed even further, jumping a staggering 44% year-on-year to a historic US$146 billion in Q3. Year-to-date, demand has increased by 1% to 3,717 tonnes, translating to US$384 billion in value - a 41% surge compared to the previous year.
Investors Take the Wheel
Investors were the driving force behind this gold rush. Massive buying in ETFs (+222 tonnes), coupled with four consecutive quarters of robust bar and coin demand exceeding 300 tonnes (316 tonnes), fueled the overall increase in demand. Central banks also played their part, with buying remaining elevated at 220 tonnes, a 28% increase from the previous quarter. However, their year-to-date buying of 634 tonnes has been slower compared to the same period last year, when they acquired 724 tonnes.
Jewelry's Mixed Tale
The jewelry sector experienced a double-digit year-on-year decline (the sixth consecutive quarter) to 371 tonnes, as volumes struggled in the record-high price environment. Interestingly, the value of jewelry consumption increased by 13% year-on-year to US$41 billion. This contrast highlights the resilience of the jewelry market, even in challenging price conditions.
Technology Demand: A Balancing Act
Technology demand saw a slight decrease compared to Q3 2024. While growing AI demand provided support, headwinds emerged from US tariff policies and the surging gold price. This sector's demand remained relatively stable, showcasing its resilience in the face of economic fluctuations.
Price Highlights: A Quarter of Records
The LBMA (PM) gold price set 13 new all-time highs during the quarter. The price rose by an impressive 16% in Q3, resulting in an average quarterly price of US$3456.54/oz - a 40% year-on-year increase and a 5% quarter-on-quarter rise.
Supply and Demand: A Balanced Equation
Total gold supply increased by 3% year-on-year to a quarterly record of 1,313 tonnes. Mine production, which typically experiences seasonal growth in Q3, rose by 2% year-on-year to 977 tonnes. The supply of recycled gold remained elevated but stable at 344 tonnes, up 6% year-on-year and down 1% quarter-on-quarter. Recycling activity was somewhat restrained by expectations of further price gains and supportive economic conditions.
OTC Investment: A Global Phenomenon
OTC investment added a significant 55 tonnes to Q3 demand. This measure reflects the continued widespread interest from institutions and high net worth individuals globally, particularly in September. It underscores the appeal of gold as a safe-haven investment and a hedge against economic uncertainties.
And Here's the Controversial Bit...
While gold's performance in Q3 was impressive, it's essential to consider the broader economic context. With central banks actively managing their gold reserves and investors seeking safe-haven assets, the question arises: Is this a sustainable trend, or a temporary blip in a volatile market? What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments and let's spark a discussion!
