The idea of negative interest rates may seem counterintuitive, if not downright crazy. In a world where lenders make money by charging their customers interest, why would they be willing to pay someone to borrow money? In this case, the lender is the one taking the risk of defaulting on the loan. As strange as it may seem, there are times when central banks run out of policy options to stimulate their nations' economies and turn to the desperate measure of negative interest rates.
Key Takeaways
- Negative interest rates are an unconventional, and seemingly counterintuitive, monetary policy tool.
- Central banks impose negative interest rates when they fear their economies are slipping into a deflationary spiral with no spending, dropping prices, no profits, and no growth.
- Cash deposited at a bank yields a storage charge rather than the opportunity to earn interest income when rates are negative
- The idea of negative interest rates is to incentivize loaning and spending, rather than saving and hoarding.
- Several European and Asian central banks have imposed negative interest rates on commercial banks.
What Are Negative Interest Rates?
An interest rate is the cost of borrowing. Financial institutions charge borrowers interest when they lend money. So taking a car loan, mortgage, line of credit, student loan, credit card, or any other debt means you'll pay interest. This means a 2% annualized interest rate on a $100 loan means that the borrower must repay the initial loan amount plus an additional $2 after one full year. Banks and central banks charge interest when they lend money to other institutions, too.
There are cases when interest rates dip below 0%. These are called negative interest rates. This happens during periods of deflation. During deflationary periods, the value of a nation's currency rises because of a drop in prices.
When this happens, central banks may have to set interest rates into negative territory. This means that borrowers may be credited interest rather than having to pay it. For instance, a -2% interest rate means the bank from the example above pays the borrower $2 after a year of using the $100 loan instead of the other way around.
Negative Interest Rates in Practice
Negative interest rates are an unconventional monetary policy tool. They are also fairly new:
- Sweden's central bank was the first to deploy them in July 2009, when the Riksbankcut its overnight deposit rate to -0.25%.
- The European Central Bank (ECB) followed suit in June 2014when it lowered its deposit rate to -0.1%.
- Other European countries and Japan also opted to offer negative interest rates, resulting in $9.5trillion worth of government debt carrying negative yields in 2017.
But why did they take this drastic measure? The monetary policymakers were afraid that Europe was at risk of falling into a deflationary spiral. In harsh economic times, people and businesses tendto hold on to their cash while they wait for the economy to improve.
But this behavior canfurther weaken the economy, as alack of spending causes further job losses,lowers profits, and prices to drop. All of this reinforcespeople’s fears, giving them even more incentive to hoard their money. As spending slows even more, prices drop again, creating another incentive for people to wait asprices fall further. And so on.
This is precisely the deflationary spiral that European central banks want to avoid with negative interest rates, which not only affects bank loans but also bank deposits.
When you deposit money in an account at a financial institution, you are in effect becoming a lender—letting the bank have use of your funds—and the institution effectively becomes a borrower.
The Theory Behind Negative Interest Rates
Cash deposited at a bank yields a storage charge when interest rates dip into negative territory. So depositors don't earn any interest income when they save their money but pay money to do so. By charging European banks to store their reserves at the central bank, the policyholders hope to encourage banks to lend more.
In theory, banks would rather lend money to borrowers and earn at least some interest as opposed to being charged to hold their money at a central bank. Additionally, negative rates charged by a central bank may carry over to deposit accounts and loans. This meansthat deposit holders would also be charged for parking their money at their local bank while some borrowers enjoy the privilege of actually earning money by taking out a loan.
Another primary reason the ECB turned to negative interest rates is to lower the value of the euro. Low or negative yields on European debt may deter foreign investors, thus weakening demand for the euro. While this decreases the supply of financial capital, Europe's problem is not one ofsupply but ofdemand. A weaker euro is liable to stimulate demand for exports and,hopefully, encouragebusinesses to expand.
Although the U.S. Federal Reserve has never imposed negative interest rates, it has come close with near-zero rates. On Mar. 15, 2020, it cut the benchmark interest rate to a 0% to 0.25% range.
Risks of Negative Interest Rates
Negative interest rates should help to stimulate economic activity and stave off inflation. However, some policymakers remain cautious about resorting to them because there are several ways they could backfire.
Consider what happens with certain assets like mortgages. These loans are contractually tied to the prevailing interest rate, which means that negative rates could squeeze profit margins to the point where banks lend less.
There is also nothing to stop deposit holders from withdrawing their money and stuffing the physical cash in mattresses because saving and storing their money at banks would come at a cost. While the initial threat would be a run on banks, the drain of cash from the banking system could lead to a rise in interest rates—the exact opposite of what negative interest rates are supposed to achieve.
Why Would Negative Interest Rates Be Implemented?
Negative interest rates occur when prices begin to start dropping to low levels as the value of a nation's currency increases. At these times, central banks may resort to negative interest rates. The purpose of negative interest rates is to fight deflation, discourage people from hoarding their cash, and encourage lending by financial institutions.
Who Benefits From Negative Interest Rates?
When interest rates are negative, lenders pay borrowers for holding debt. This means that someone gets paid interest for holding a loan, such as a mortgage or personal loan. As such, banks lose out while borrowers benefit. Savers, on the other hand, lose out. That's because it costs them money to store their cash at the bank. This means that they don't earn any interest on their deposits. Instead, they pay their bank interest to hold their savings.
Has the U.S. Ever Dipped Into Negative Interest Rate Territory?
The U.S. Federal Reserve has never resorted to negative interest rates, but it has come close. The Fed did lower rates to a range of 0% to 0.25% in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Bottom Line
While negative interest rates may seem paradoxical, this apparent intuition has not preventedsome European and Asian central banks from adoptingthem. This isevidence of the dire situation that policymakers believe characterizes the European economy.
When the Eurozone inflation rate dropped into deflationary territory at -0.5% in Mar. 2015, European policymakers promised to do whatever it tookto avoid a deflationary spiral. However,even as Europe enteredunchartered monetary territory, many analysts warnedthatnegative interest rate policies could have severe unintended consequences.
