Stagflation is an economic condition that combinesslowgrowthand relatively high unemploymentwithrising prices, or inflation. The standard macroeconomic remedies for inflation or unemployment are considered ineffective against stagflation. In fact, there is no universal agreement on the best way to stop stagflation.
The problem is that the normal responses to the two major components of stagflation—recession and inflation—are diametrically opposed.
Key Takeaways
- A government may alleviate a recession by pouring more money into the economy to lower loan rates and jump-start spending.
- It counters inflation by reducing the flow of money, forcing loan rates higher to slow spending.
- Stagflation, once thought impossible, is unlikely to respond well to either policy.
Recession and Inflation
Governments respond to recessions through expansionary monetary and fiscal policies. That is, they pump more money into the economy. More money means cheaper money. Businesses are encouraged to borrow, grow, and hire. Consumers use credit more and consider major purchases.
Inflation requires the opposite response. The government restricts the supply of money in the system in order to make it more expensive to borrow. Businesses and consumers borrow less and spend less. The overall economy slows down. With demand declining, prices stop rising.
But what can policymakers do when a recession coincides with higher inflation? It's the worst of both worlds, and it's supposed to be impossible.
When the Impossible Happens
New Zealand economist A.W. Phillips studied inflation and unemployment data in the United Kingdom from 1861 through 1957. Hefound a consistent inverse relationship between rising prices and rising unemployment.
Phillips concluded that periods of low unemployment forced an increase in the price of labor which was passed on to consumers. That is, labor shortages lead to higher costs of living.
Conversely, Phillips noted that recessions slowed the rate of wage inflation. With more workers competing for fewer jobs, employers could pay lower wages. These were reflected down the line in the prices paid by consumers. Prices fell or at least stayed steady.
This inverse relationship between the level of unemployment and the rate of inflation was represented in a model that came to be known as the Phillips Curve.
Using the Phillips Curve
Prominent 20th-century Keynesian economists and government policy buffs such as Paul A. Samuelson and Robert M. Solow believed that the Phillips Curve could be used to monitor the trade-off between inflation and unemployment and keep the business cycle in balance.
Nevertheless, the U.S. entered into a period of stagflation in the 1970s, when it experienced simultaneous increases in consumer prices and unemployment. Confronted with a reality that was thought to be impossible, Keynesian economists struggled to come up with an explanation or a solution.
How Economists Proposeto Fight Stagflation
The search for a weapon to fight stagflation led in part to the rise of supply-side economic theories as an alternative to Keynesian economics.
Milton Friedman, who had argued during the 1960s that the Phillips Curve was built on faulty assumptions and that stagflation was possible, rose to prominence when events proved him right.
Friedman theorized that once people adjusted to higher inflation rates, unemployment would rise again unless the underlying cause of unemployment was addressed.
Control Inflation First
Friedman argued that traditional expansionary policy would lead, in turn, to a permanently increasing inflation rate. He argued that the bank must work to stabilize prices in order to prevent inflation from spinning out of control.
If the government deregulated the economy, he said, the free market would allocate labor towards its most productive uses.
Inflation reached a peak in 1980 at 13.5%.
Most neoclassical or Austrian views of stagflation, such as those of economist FriedrichHayek,aresimilar to Friedman's. Common prescriptions includethe ending of expansionary monetary policy andallowing prices to adjust in the free market.
Modern-day Keynesian economists such as Paul Krugman argue that stagflation can be understood through supply shocks and that governments must act to correct the supply shock without allowing unemployment to rise too quickly.
The Political Battle
The most obvious fixes for stagflation tend to be deeply unpopular in the U.S. For example, if the price of oil is a key cause of out-of-control prices, privatization or price controls might be imposed. If higher wages are blamed for inflation, the government might limit wage increases.
In the absence of any government action, stagflation might correct itself in time. In the 1970s, stagflation was at least partially caused by a sudden surge in the global price of oil, imposed by the oil-producing nations of the Mideast. Over time, the cost of oil returned to more normal levels and the economy began to emerge from its slump.
What Happens During Stagflation?
During stagflation, an economy suffers slow growth and high unemployment, which often go hand in hand; however, stagflation also throws in rising prices, or inflation, into the mix, which makes stagflation a difficult problem to tackle.
What Is Worse, Stagflation or a Recession?
Stagflation is considered to be worse than a recession because it is more difficult to remedy. With a recession, a central bank can cut interest rates to stimulate growth, with stagflation, cutting rates would solve the slow growth but worsen the existing inflation.
Do Stocks Go Up During Stagflation?
No, stocks generally do not go up during stagflation because companies suffer during stagflation due to slow economic growth and high prices.
The Bottom Line
Stagflation is a unique economic phenomenon; a mix of slow growth, high unemployment, and rising prices. It is a combination of the worst aspects of economic turmoil. Traditional monetary policies can now be seen to combat one economic turmoil or the other, for example, rising prices or high unemployment, but are difficult to combat stagflation because of the opposite direction changes in interest rates have on such factors, such as slow growth and rising prices.
Economists still have not found the best way to control stagflation without putting a massive strain on the population, but there have been a variety of proposed theories. Luckily, stagflation is not common.
