Toprak Razgatlioglu is on the brink of a thrilling opportunity to secure his third World Superbike Championship title this weekend at Estoril (October 10–12). But here’s the catch: can he wrap up the championship before the final round in Jerez? The answer is yes, but only under a very specific set of circumstances.
Razgatlioglu’s current situation mirrors the tense scenario he faced alongside Nicolo Bulega at last year’s Estoril round. Despite being in a strong position, Razgatlioglu cannot clinch the championship before Race 2 takes place. Initially, there are 124 championship points still up for grabs, but after the Superpole Race in Portugal, this number will drop to 87. If Bulega fails to score any points in both Race 1 and the Superpole Race, and Razgatlioglu wins both events, the Turkish rider’s maximum possible lead over Bulega would be 73 points.
To put it simply, for Razgatlioglu to become the 2025 World Superbike Champion ahead of the final round, he needs to be at least 62 points ahead of Bulega by the end of Race 2 over the Estoril weekend. That means across the three races (Race 1, the Superpole Race, and Race 2), Razgatlioglu must outscore Bulega by a minimum of 36 points to seal the championship there.
Here’s where it gets interesting: Race 2 offers a maximum of 25 points. Therefore, to have a realistic chance to claim the title in Race 2, Razgatlioglu needs to gain at least 11 points on Bulega across Race 1 and the Superpole Race combined.
The Superpole Race itself provides 12 points, but if Razgatlioglu loses two or more points to Bulega in Race 1, his opportunity to clinch the championship at Estoril slips away. So, if Bulega finishes within the top five in Race 1, Razgatlioglu must finish ahead of him to keep his championship hopes alive for Race 2. Yet even then, he must also earn enough points in the Superpole Race to maintain that advantage going into the final race.
On the other hand, if Bulega finishes outside the top five in Race 1, Razgatlioglu could theoretically finish one position behind Bulega and still retain a chance to win the title at Race 2, provided he gains sufficient points in the Superpole Race to meet the 11-point gain target over both preliminary races.
The only scenario where Razgatlioglu can guarantee a shot at the championship in Race 2 — without having to worry about punch-for-punch points management in the Superpole Race — is by outscoring Bulega by 23 points in Race 1 alone. This would put him at least 59 points ahead on Saturday evening. To achieve this, Razgatlioglu must win Race 1 while Bulega finishes 14th or worse.
But no matter what unfolds in Portugal, one undeniable fact remains: Razgatlioglu cannot capture the 2025 World Superbike Championship title on Saturday. Race 1 simply sets the stage, offering him a chance to seal the championship on Sunday.
And this is the part most people miss—while the points math might seem straightforward, the psychological battle and tactical precision over these races add layers of drama that could redefine who emerges as champion. Do you think Razgatlioglu can handle this pressure and claim the title before the final round? Or will Bulega turn the tables? Share your thoughts and predictions in the comments below!
