Inflation and Sentiment Continue to Put Pressure on Stocks (2024)

Mike HorwathMarket Update

Inflation and Sentiment Continue to Put Pressure on Stocks

Global equity markets fell across the board last week. We saw global markets (represented by the MSCI All Country World Index) down -4.4% and domestic stocks (represented by the S&P 500 Index) down -5.0%.

Inflation

On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its May Consumer Price Index (inflation) report. It surprised to the upside, showing an 8.6% year-over-year climb. It was energy and food that continue to drive prices higher. Excluding energy and food (which is called core inflation), the May figure was 6.0%. Both figures came in above expectation and spooked investors.

Federal Reserve Rates

Investors had been optimistic that inflation had peaked back in March, however, the report last week showed that thought to be premature. All eyes turn to the Federal Reserve meeting this week where interest rates will once again be increased. What we saw on Friday was the market increasing a higher probability that the Fed will raise rates by 0.75% instead of 0.50%. We will get that announcement on Wednesday from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed has already stated their preference for 0.50% increases in June and July and were hoping to reduce to 0.25% beginning in September. Below is now what the market is pricing in for September.

Inflation and Sentiment Continue to Put Pressure on Stocks (2)

Consumer Sentiment

The combination of inflation, higher interest rates, and geopolitics continues to weigh on consumers. The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment came out last week and recorded its lowest score ever in its history, which dates to the 1970s. The survey asks random consumers questions about their feelings on financial and economic conditions moving forward. This reading has clearly diverged from consumer spending, which continues to remain strong despite the drop in sentiment.

Bond Market

As markets price in new information, the bond market has quickly become a much more attractive place to invest. Just over two years ago in March 2020, 10-year government bonds yielded investors just over 0.50% per year. After all of the action over the last 6-7 months, that same bond now yields an investor 3.15% per year.

I’d like to leave you with the final line we’ve used since we started these commentaries back at the very height of market volatility in March 2020. Always remember that we create financial/investment plans not for the easy times, but to prepare for the tough ones.

Inflation and Sentiment Continue to Put Pressure on Stocks (3)

Mike Horwath

Mike heads the internal Investment Committee that is responsible for the investment direction of the firm. He works closely with Diversified’s financial planners to support the investment side of the lifelong financial planning process. Lastly, it’s Mike’s responsibility to oversee the ever-changing global investment landscape and work with the planners to evaluate the impact on each of our client’s strategies.

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Inflation and Sentiment Continue to Put Pressure on Stocks (2024)

FAQs

Should you buy stocks when inflation is high? ›

High inflation has historically correlated with lower returns on equities. Value stocks tends to perform better than growth stocks in high inflation periods, and growth stocks tend to perform better during low inflation.

How do inflation and interest rates affect stocks? ›

Lower rates can also lead to inflation, which undermines the effectiveness of low rates. Higher rates discourage spending and can depress company returns and, therefore, stock prices. Changes in interest rates tend to impact the stock market quickly but may have a lagging effect in other areas.

Who gets richer during inflation? ›

Inflation can have varying effects on different wealth brackets with the middle class benefiting from real estate assets, but facing challenges in other areas. The "wealth effect" benefits those with substantial assets from increased asset values, like stocks, real estate and entrepreneurial endeavors.

Who benefits from high inflation? ›

Poor people don't own much, and so they just get the part of inflation where their income becomes less valuable. The middle class typically benefits from inflation because the middle class typically has a lot of debt.

What is the best investment when interest rates are rising? ›

Dividend stocks

Dividend stocks should also do well in an environment where interest rates stay high because the dividend payments offer an immediate return to investors. After you receive the dividend, you can decide whether to reinvest the proceeds back into the company or find a better use for the cash.

Who benefits from high interest rates? ›

With profit margins that actually expand as rates climb, entities like banks, insurance companies, brokerage firms, and money managers generally benefit from higher interest rates. Central bank monetary policies and the Fed's reserver ratio requirements also impact banking sector performance.

What happens to the stock market when inflation rises? ›

As inflation in a country rises, the central banks increase the interest rates to gain control. Higher interest rates erode market liquidity, resulting in a bearish condition with reduced stock prices. In such a scenario, most investors sell off their stocks to avoid huge losses.

Can you have inflation and recession at the same time? ›

In economics, stagflation (or recession-inflation) is a situation in which the inflation rate is high or increasing, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high.

What investments do not do well in inflation? ›

While inflation's effects on the economy and asset values can be unpredictable, history and economics offer some rules of thumb. Inflation is most damaging to the value of fixed-rate debt securities because it devalues interest rate payments as well repayments of principal.

Is it worth investing during inflation? ›

For investors, returns on investments should be at least as high as the inflation rate. Otherwise, their investments are losing money even if they gain in dollar value. Similarly, individuals should ensure that their salaries keep pace with inflation; otherwise, they are losing buying power.

Who makes money from inflation? ›

The financial sector can benefit from inflation in several ways. For example, as inflation increases, interest rates tend to go up as well. This provides financial institutions with higher returns on their Credit Cards, loans and other forms of debt.

How to survive high inflation? ›

To survive inflation, consider spending or saving less, earning more, and using money wisely, especially if you're retired. Additionally, be mindful of taking on new debt and consider refinancing to fix your rates or consolidate existing debts.

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