Investors Have One Eye on Friday’s Jobs Report (2024)

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Investors Have One Eye on Friday’s Jobs Report (1)

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Tuesday is likely to be one of the quieter days in an otherwise busy and important week for the markets, with investors having one eye on Friday’s US jobs report following Janet Yellen’s hawkish comments at Jackson Hole on Friday.

Not only did Yellen give an upbeat assessment of the US economy on Friday, this was backed up by comments from her vice Chair Stanley Fischer who claimed that Yellen’s comments were consistent with as many as two rate hikes this year. We’ve had this hawkish commentary from officials on numerous occasions in the past but with a consensus appearing to build and policy makers repeatedly hinting that at least one hike this year is likely, markets need to take notice.

NFP: Hyperbole in High Gear

Still, investors are not totally convinced which makes Friday’s jobs report extremely important. Should we get a strong jobs report for August then the next FOMC decision in three weeks will absolutely be a live meeting, whether markets want to accept that or not. A weak report probably leaves us back at square one from where the markets are positioned because even now, they’re reluctant to buy what the Fed is selling.

While this is likely to be one of the quieter sessions on the economic data side, there are some releases that will be of interest. UK consumer credit numbers will be released shortly after the open which will give some useful insight into demand and availability of credit in July, the month after Brexit. Given what the other consumer data has told us since the vote, I don’t think we’ll see a dramatic change in the numbers and any change at all will probably be put down to it being a knee jerk reaction, unless it’s followed by a couple more months to support it.

XAU/USD – Gold Subdued as US Consumer Numbers Meet Expectations

In the eurozone we’ll get some services, industrial, consumer, business and economic sentiment surveys for August. While these tend to get less traction as they follow the PMI data, they are still useful and provide additional insight into how the economy could perform in the final four months of the year. We’ll also get some inflation data from Germany ahead of tomorrow’s preliminary eurozone reading for August.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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Investors Have One Eye on Friday’s Jobs Report (4)

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA

Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.

Investors Have One Eye on Friday’s Jobs Report (6)

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Brexit, Consumer Credit, eurozone, germany, Inflation, nfp, non farm payrolls, uk, unemployment, us, US Jobs Report

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Investors Have One Eye on Friday’s Jobs Report (2024)

FAQs

What is the US unemployment rate right now? ›

Basic Info. US Unemployment Rate is at 4.30%, compared to 4.10% last month and 3.50% last year.

What makes up the jobs report? ›

The monthly jobs report estimates the U.S. unemployment rate and the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls as well as average earnings and hours worked.

What is the unemployment rate in the USA in 2024? ›

The unadjusted unemployment rate in the United States stood at 4.1 percent in June 2024. This data is not seasonally adjusted. The adjusted monthly unemployment rate can be found here and the monthly civilian labor force participation rate here.

How many jobs are available in the US? ›

PressOffice@bls.gov JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – JUNE 2024 The number of job openings was unchanged at 8.2 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

What state pays the highest unemployment? ›

In the USA, Massachusetts, Washington and Minnesota are the states with the best payments, since the maximum amount is $1,015, $999 and $857, respectively.

Which country has the highest unemployment rate? ›

South Africa has the Highest Unemployment Rate in the World as Jobs Bloodbath Continues. ActionSA is highly concerned about South Africa's unemployment crisis, as for every 100 South Africans that entered the labour market this year, only six could get a job.

How does the US jobs report affect the stock market? ›

Slowing job growth may cause the Fed to reduce interest rates, which historically correlates with higher stock prices. On the other hand, job growth and low unemployment may spur the Fed to pump the brakes on economic growth by increasing interest rates, which typically depresses stocks.

How many jobs were lost in January 2024? ›

fyi counted 28,970 jobs gone during the first 31 days of 2024. Altogether, that's more than 40,000 Americans laid off in January alone. Based on a new Resume Builder survey, four in 10 companies said they are likely to have layoffs in 2024.

What is the job report for May 2024? ›

The U.S. economy added 272,000 jobs in May, underscoring the labor market is too hot for the Federal Reserve.

What US state has the lowest unemployment rate? ›

South Dakota recorded the nation's lowest unemployment rate at 2%, followed by North Dakota and Vermont, both at 2.1%.

Which state has the highest unemployment rate? ›

1. Which is the state with the highest unemployment rate in India? How about the state with the lowest unemployment rate in India? As of December 2022, Haryana had the highest unemployment rate in India, at 37.4 percent.

Why are so many people not working? ›

Many companies had to downsize or close, millions retired early, and the average employee sought more freedom and flexibility in their working schedules. All of this resulted in a lower labor force participation rate where less Americans were working.

What is the most common job to have in America? ›

The most common job in America is retail salesperson, with 3.76 million people in these jobs.

What is causing the labor shortage? ›

Pre-pandemic levels of the labor force participation rate were much higher than today, with a major chunk of the workforce now retired. Whether forced into early retirement by being furloughed or laid off or doing so willingly; Covid-19 has greatly impacted the participation and recovery of older workers.

What was highest unemployment rate in US history? ›

Unemployment was most severe in 1933 in Michigan, which also stands at the head of the array of the 1930-33 average with a rate of 35.9 percent.

What state in the US has the lowest unemployment rate? ›

South Dakota recorded the nation's lowest unemployment rate at 2%, followed by North Dakota and Vermont, both at 2.1%. Table with 3 columns and 5 rows.

Is unemployment still high in the US? ›

Is unemployment rising or falling? The unemployment rate has remained low and stable, fluctuating between 3.9% and 4.1% since Nov. 2021.

What is the ideal US unemployment rate? ›

The level at which unemployment equals positive output is highly debated. However, economists suggest that as the U.S. unemployment rate gets below 5%, the economy is very close to or at full capacity. So at 3.5% one could argue the level of unemployment is too low, and the U.S. economy is becoming inefficient.

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