It’s an irreversible trend for China’s economy to catch up with the US’
A view of Shanghai, China's major financial hub and destination for foreign investment Photo:VCG
Last year, due to multiple temporary reasons, the increment of the nominal GDP of the US was slightly larger than China's. Previously, there were always unfavorable factors for China's economy every year, but not only China's GDP growth rate exceeded that of the US but also its actual increment is bigger than the US' and that has lasted for quite some years. Therefore, China's GDP growth rate of 3 percent was higher than the US' 2.1 percent last year, but the increment of the US' GDP slightly surpassed China's. This is worth paying attention to.
Last year, the US boasted that its GDP growth rate might surpass China's for the first time since 1976. President Biden himself made such prediction twice, but that wish turned to be a mirage. It is believed that China's GDP growth rate and actual increment will once again surpass the US' this year, continuing the strong momentum of catching up with the US in terms of total economic size. I believe it won't happen again this year that actual increment of China's GDP being lower than US'. This year, China's GDP is expected to grow by around 5 percent, while the US is only expected to grow by 0.5 percent, indicating a huge gap. Moreover, the possibility of China's growth exceeding expectations is bigger than that of the US, as around 5 percent is clearly a conservative figure.
A significant source of China's social confidence is the consistently strong economic growth, which has led to a clear trend of narrowing the gap between China and the US in terms of GDP, as well as the transformation of people's lives in the field of livelihoods. The Chinese people have jointly joined the trend of modernization.
China's development potential is in a stage of continuous release, far from being exhausted. It is necessary to ensure that the momentum of development is sufficient and powerful. It has become a global expectation that China's total economic size will surpass that of the US in the next decade or so, and as long as China focuses on developing itself well, this result will be achieved naturally. Those who recently claimed that China will lose the hope of surpassing the US in total economic size due to its declining population and technology decoupling are wishful thinking of some elites in the US and the West. They want to undermine China's social confidence. What we need to do is to speak with facts and make their schemes fail.
It is worth emphasizing that once China's total economic size surpasses that of the US in about a decade, although there is still gap in terms of overall strength between China and the US and China's per capita GDP is only one-quarter that of the US, it will be a significant tipping point, and many things will change in ways we may not have imagined today. The world will believe that it is an irreversible trend for China to be the world No.1 economy again, and many countries, including some Western countries, will change their attitudes towards China. The situation of ideological competition will also change in a way that favors China. China's strategic initiative will take a significant step forward, and the social confidence of the Chinese people will also take a huge boost.
The author is a commentator with the Global Times. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn
As a seasoned expert in the field of economics and global affairs, it's clear from the provided article that the author is discussing the ongoing economic competition between China and the United States. The narrative revolves around the idea that China's economy is on an irreversible trend to catch up with and surpass that of the United States. Let's delve into the key concepts and ideas presented in the article:
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GDP Growth Rates: The author emphasizes the comparison of GDP growth rates between China and the United States. Last year, China's GDP growth rate exceeded that of the US, with China's growth rate at 3 percent compared to the US' 2.1 percent. The author predicts that China's GDP growth rate and actual increment will continue to surpass the US in the current year as well.
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Increment of Nominal GDP: The article highlights that, despite China's higher GDP growth rate, the increment of the nominal GDP of the US was slightly larger than China's due to multiple temporary reasons. The author suggests that this phenomenon is worth paying attention to, indicating a nuanced analysis of economic factors.
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Economic Catch-Up and Social Confidence: China's consistently strong economic growth is seen as a significant source of social confidence. The article discusses how this economic growth has led to a trend of narrowing the gap between China and the US in terms of GDP. The author attributes China's social confidence to its economic success and suggests that the momentum of development is far from being exhausted.
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Development Potential: The article asserts that China's development potential is continuously being released and is far from being exhausted. It emphasizes the necessity of ensuring a sufficient and powerful momentum of development. The global expectation is that China's total economic size will surpass that of the US in the next decade, provided China continues to focus on its development.
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Population Decline and Technology Decoupling: The article addresses recent claims that China may lose hope of surpassing the US in total economic size due to factors such as declining population and technology decoupling. The author dismisses these claims as wishful thinking by some elites in the US and the West, aiming to undermine China's social confidence.
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Global Perception and Ideological Competition: The article suggests that once China's total economic size surpasses that of the US, it will be a significant tipping point. The world's perception of China as the world's No.1 economy will be seen as an irreversible trend. The author predicts changes in attitudes towards China from various countries, including some Western nations. The article also touches upon shifts in the ideological competition, indicating a more favorable position for China.
In conclusion, the article presents a comprehensive analysis of the economic competition between China and the US, incorporating factors such as GDP growth rates, social confidence, development potential, and global perception. The author provides a nuanced perspective on the dynamics shaping the future of China's economic dominance.
