Markets Rise as Debt Ceiling Deal Strikes to the Senate (2024)

The debt deal clears the House

The debt-ceiling deal is a step nearer to changing into regulation after its breezy passage within the House final night time, making the prospect of a U.S. default all of the extra distant. Investors expressed reduction, sending international markets and U.S. inventory futures larger this morning.

The invoice now heads to a last vote within the Democratic-controlled Senate. The House vote was at all times seen as riskier, however the invoice’s passage within the higher home is not at all a fait accompli. A single member may gum up the laws — watch Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky, who desires bigger spending cuts, and Senator Bernie Sanders, impartial of Vermont, who stated he would vote against the deal. But Senate management hopes to get the invoice to President Biden’s desk by this weekend, with Senator Mitch McConnell, the highest Republican, saying he would again it “without delay.”

Speaker Kevin McCarthy has emerged in respectable form. Yes, he wanted Democrats to hold the invoice over the road. And some fiscal hawks in his occasion see the deal as a betrayal. (An analysis by The Times reveals the settlement will result in $1 trillion in deficit reductions; the Republicans initially demanded a $4.8 trillion minimize.)

But Mr. McCarthy held onto backing from conservative occasion members together with Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio.

President Biden has additionally received plaudits for reaching an settlement, with commentators calling it a win for him and one other instance of his “deal-making prowess.”

Time continues to be tight. As of Tuesday, the Treasury’s money stability had dwindled to $37.4 billion, a six-year low. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has calculated that the federal government would run out of money as quickly as Monday if a deal will not be handed by then.

Despite all of the drama in Washington, markets have been pretty muted. The S&P 500 completed barely larger in May, suggesting that buyers by no means priced within the doomsday situation of a default. That’s a far cry from the topsy-turvy buying and selling that rocked the market over the past massive debt-ceiling standoff in 2011, when stocks and the dollar fell.

Here are the opposite massive winners and losers from final month:

Tech shares, pushed by investor enthusiasm for synthetic intelligence, led the best way. The FANG+ Index, which incorporates A.I.-adjacent shares resembling Nvidia, Meta and Google, climbed almost 15 p.c. Meanwhile, commodity costs fell on issues that the worldwide economic system, particularly China, is headed for a downturn. West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil costs have declined in every of the previous 5 months.

Also lifting buyers’ temper this morning is news that two voting members of the Fed on Wednesday endorsed the idea of the central financial institution pausing fee will increase this month.

HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING

Amazon will settle costs that it violated guidelines on youngsters’s privateness. The tech big pays $25 million to resolve civil claims by the F.T.C. and the Justice Department that it stored delicate data collected from youngsters via Alexa-enabled devices for years. Meanwhile, about 2,000 Amazon staff walked off the job on Wednesday to protest points together with the corporate’s return-to-office mandate and up to date layoffs.

The Biden administration is reportedly divided over guidelines for synthetic intelligence. Some officers back stronger measures to rein within the likes of ChatGPT, in keeping with their European counterparts, whereas others fear that regulation may damage American innovation, based on Bloomberg. That cut up contributed to a lack of consensus at a gathering of trans-Atlantic tech policymakers in Sweden on Wednesday.

Eurozone inflation falls sooner than anticipated. Prices within the 20-country bloc rose at an annualized rate of 6.1 percent final month, down from 7 p.c in April and the double-digit will increase of the autumn. But costs for meals and companies continued to climb, making it extra possible that the European Central Bank will preserve elevating rates of interest.

Sean Combs sues Diageo, claiming racial discrimination. A beverage firm owned by the music mogul accused Diageo of neglecting the DeLeón tequila brand that they co-own — and stated the drinks big had pigeonholed DeLeón as “urban” and “Black.” Mr. Combs’s firm claimed that Diageo as a substitute favored different manufacturers like Casamigos, which was co-founded by George Clooney; Diageo denied the claims.

Dimon deflects blame for JPMorgan’s Epstein ties

With JPMorgan Chase going through accusations that it ignored warning indicators about Jeffrey Epstein, prime executives — together with the financial institution’s chief, Jamie Dimon — said in sworn testimony that they knew virtually nothing concerning the convicted intercourse offender.

What emerged from depositions of Mr. Dimon and a prime lieutenant, Mary Erdoes, was the impression that prime executives didn’t speak to 1 one other about one of many financial institution’s most infamous shoppers.

Mr. Dimon stated that he had barely heard of Mr. Epstein earlier than his arrest on federal intercourse trafficking costs. (This was regardless of Mr. Epstein making frequent appearances within the tabloids.) Mr. Dimon stated he “wouldn’t mind personally apologizing” to Mr. Epstein’s victims, although he maintained that JPMorgan wasn’t answerable for the financier’s crimes.

And Ms. Erdoes, JPMorgan’s asset administration chief, asserted that she had solely met Mr. Epstein twice, with the second time being to dismiss him as a shopper in 2013.

Both executives sought accountable others for JPMorgan’s lengthy ties to Mr. Epstein. Ms. Erdoes stated ending ties with him grew to become simpler after Jes Staley, who previously led the personal banking division, left the agency earlier in 2013. Ms. Erdoes referred to as Mr. Staley “Mr. Epstein’s advocate in the bank,” and in his absence, “I was exiting Mr. Epstein.”

For his half, Mr. Dimon advised that final authority for dropping Mr. Epstein as a shopper lay with Steve Cutler, JPMorgan’s former basic counsel. Mr. Dimon added that he believed Mr. Cutler and Ms. Erdoes “were both trying to do the right thing.”

Next up is Mr. Staley’s deposition, which may come as quickly as subsequent week. In authorized paperwork, Mr. Staley has claimed that he spoke with Mr. Dimon a number of occasions about retaining Mr. Epstein as a shopper, based on The Wall Street Journal, one thing JPMorgan denies.

Climate proposals stumble badly at oil big conferences

Investors in Chevron and Exxon Mobil on Wednesday overwhelmingly rejected an array of shareholder proposals meant to power the oil producers to chop greenhouse-gas emissions and disclose extra climate-related knowledge.

The abysmal outcomes underscore how efforts to make the fossil-fuel trade greener have been shedding steam, reinforcing what local weather shareholder activists advised DealBook was existential angst about how little floor their motion was gaining.

Nearly the entire proposals failed to realize greater than 20 p.c assist. That mirrored a broad pushback on efforts to power Chevron and Exxon to decarbonize and publish emissions targets in keeping with the Paris local weather accords. (Some of the measures failed regardless of assist from main buyers like Norway’s $1.4 trillion sovereign wealth fund and the British asset supervisor Legal & General.)

Big buyers have been taking part in down assist for E.S.G., the funding motion that focuses on environmental, social and company governance points, amid strain from conservative lawmakers throughout the United States. (It isn’t clear how cash managers like BlackRock and Vanguard, which had publicly promoted E.S.G. stances in recent times, voted on the most recent proposals.)

Meanwhile, U.S. oil firms have ramped up their fossil-fuel manufacturing, citing rising demand amid the battle in Ukraine and rising inflation. Chevron has even doubled down on conventional fuels by agreeing to purchase PDC Energy, a shale producer, for $6.3 billion.

Activists fumed concerning the outcomes, which capped a sharp reversal in their movement’s fortunes because the hedge fund Engine No. 1 received three seats on Exxon’s board in 2021. “It’s incomprehensible that most investors still accept the U.S. supermajors’ refusal to cut emissions this decade,” Mark van Baal, the founding father of the environmental advocacy group Follow This, stated after the conferences.

“We did not have a systemic issue with harassment — ever. … But what we did have was a very aggressive labor movement working hard to try and destabilize the company.”

Bobby Kotick, the C.E.O. of Activision Blizzard. In an interview with Variety, he defended the online game maker’s office tradition, as lawsuits and investigations over harassment and gender fairness loom over the corporate. Kotick additionally stated that he had wished to purchase Time Warner in 2018.

Harvey Pitt, former S.E.C. chair, dies

Harvey Pitt, who grew to become the S.E.C.’s youngest basic counsel and later returned as chair died on Tuesday on the age of 78. Mr. Pitt was appointed by President George W. Bush in 2001, ran the company within the turbulent interval after the Sept. 11 assaults and applied new laws handed within the wake of the Enron accounting scandal.

Mr. Pitt’s dream job become a nightmare. He lasted solely 18 months as chair, resigning following a sequence of political missteps. These included failing to reveal that his pick to head a new accounting board created after the Enron scandal had led the audit committee of an organization mired in its personal accounting scandal. Months prior, Mr. Pitt was extensively ridiculed for attempting to insert a provision into laws that might elevate his pay and elevate his standing. He later stated his position grew to become politicized after the Enron scandal.

Mr. Pitt returned to the personal sector, however the S.E.C.’s position remained a spotlight for him. He began and led Kalorama Partners, a regulation and consulting agency, and taught at Georgetown for a few years. But the company at all times remained top of mind. “Even in the last year, he has made himself available to offer advice,” S.E.C. commissioners wrote in a joint assertion on Wednesday. “Harvey loved this agency.”

THE SPEED READ

Deals

  • The electrical automobile maker Lucid plans to sell $3 billion value of inventory, with a lot of that going to its majority proprietor, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund. (CNBC)

  • WE Soda, a significant producer of a key glassmaking part, plans to go public on the London Stock Exchange, bucking a development of firms shunning the British inventory market. (FT)

Policy

  • Meta requested a federal court docket to block the F.T.C. from imposing sanctions on the corporate for alleged privateness violations; it additionally threatened to pull news from its platforms in California if the state handed a regulation requiring tech firms to pay publishers. (WSJ)

  • Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned that incidents with the Chinese military may “spiral out of control” after a fighter jet carried out an “aggressive” maneuver close to a U.S. army aircraft. (FT)

Best of the remaining

We’d like your suggestions! Please e-mail ideas and solutions to dealbook@nytimes.com.

Content Source: www.nytimes.com

Markets Rise as Debt Ceiling Deal Strikes to the Senate (2024)

FAQs

What happens to the stock market when the debt ceiling is raised? ›

Immediate market impact of a debt ceiling deal

After weighing their options, many investors may find the returns from investing in US Treasuries better than stocks. That will temporarily suck some liquidity out of the stock market, he said.

Has the government ever failed to raise the debt ceiling? ›

While the treasury has used these measures when previous negotiations stalled—including in 2011 and 2023—Congress has never failed to raise the ceiling before the measures have been depleted.

What happens to social security if the debt ceiling isn't raised? ›

Under normal conditions, the Treasury sends Social Security payments one month in arrears. That means the check you receive in June covers your benefits for the month of May. If the debt ceiling isn't raised, the Social Security payments due to be sent to beneficiaries in June would most likely still go out.

Should I sell stocks because of debt ceiling crisis? ›

Don't give up on the stock market

Fleeing when you are fearful is a natural response. But in this case, it would be unwise. There's a low probability the government will default, but if you jump out of the market, you might see losses if, at the last moment, Congress increases the debt ceiling, Price said.

What stocks will benefit from the debt ceiling deal? ›

Companies involved in building roads, bridges, airports and other infrastructure projects may experience increased demand and potential growth opportunities.”

What happens to money market funds if the debt ceiling isn't raised? ›

As default concerns rise, investors fear money market funds may "break the buck," which happens when a fund's so-called net asset value, or total assets minus liabilities, falls below $1.

Who does America owe debt to? ›

As of April 2024, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($749.0 billion), the United Kingdom ($690.2 billion), Luxembourg ($373.5 billion), and Canada ($328.7 billion).

Why is America in so much debt? ›

One of the main culprits is consistently overspending. When the federal government spends more than its budget, it creates a deficit. In the fiscal year of 2023, it spent about $381 billion more than it collected in revenues. To pay that deficit, the government borrows money.

Has the US ever defaulted on its debt? ›

Since the United States has never defaulted on its obligations, the scope of the negative repercussions related to a default are unknown but would likely have catastrophic repercussions in the United States and in markets across the globe. How is the debt ceiling different from a government shutdown?

What happens to Medicare if the debt ceiling isn't raised? ›

The government wouldn't be able to pay everyone on time. It would likely prioritize payments to investors holding U.S. Treasury bonds, to avoid a “technical default.” Payments like Social Security, Medicare, tax refunds, military salaries and others would likely be delayed.

What happens to a 401k if the debt ceiling isn't raised? ›

Because U.S. debt is considered the bedrock of the global financial system — party due to its stability — a default could undermine economies worldwide. At home, many Americans would likely see a decline in their wealth as the stock market recoiled, bringing down the value of their 401(k) plans.

How much does the government owe the Social Security fund? ›

As of 2021, the Trust Fund contained (or alternatively, was owed) $2.908 trillion. The Trust Fund is required by law to be invested in non-marketable securities issued and guaranteed by the "full faith and credit" of the federal government. These securities earn a market rate of interest.

What is the safest place for money if the US defaults? ›

U.S. government securities—such as Treasury notes, bills, and bonds—have historically been considered extremely safe because the U.S. government has never defaulted on its debt. Treasury bonds also pay the highest interest rates. They are offered to investors for a term of 20 or 30 years to maturity.

Should I pull out money from stock market? ›

While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.

What happens to gold if the US defaults on debt? ›

"Gold is typically a stable asset that holds its worth over time. The precious metal is often not affected by inflation or fluctuations in currency values, making it a go-to option for investors looking to safeguard their assets. If the United States defaults on its debt, gold may prove to be a wise investment choice."

Will the stock market crash if the US defaults on its debt? ›

A U.S. debt default would lead to a slump in stock and bond markets, while eroding the U.S.' financial standing in the world, analysts say.

Will stocks rebound in 2024? ›

Market Sectors To Watch In 2024

Analysts project 11.5% earnings growth and 5.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in 2024. Fortunately, analysts see positive earnings and revenue growth for all eleven market sectors this year.

How does debt affect the stock market? ›

More government bonds can often lead to higher interest rates and lower stock market returns. When the U.S. government issues more Treasury securities to cover its budget deficit, the market supply of bonds increases and investors tend to demand a higher interest rate to compensate for the increased risk.

How did the debt ceiling crisis affect the stock market in 2011? ›

Looking back, the period of July 22 to August 8, 2011 ultimately contributed to a downgrade in U.S. credit on August 5. During this period, global equities declined by an average of 13%, with the S&P 500 index down 17%.

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