Could New Zealand face a measles surge of up to 150 new cases every week? That’s the worrying possibility suggested by recent government modelling — and it’s sparking serious discussion about how ready the country really is to handle another epidemic.
According to official simulations conducted last year by the New Zealand Institute for Public Health and Forensic Science (PHF), formerly known as ESR, a “worst-case” or pessimistic scenario shows that if measles begins spreading under unfavorable conditions — such as in communities with low vaccination rates — infections could climb to as many as 150 new cases each week. But here’s where it gets interesting: experts say a more likely outcome would mirror the 2019 outbreak, which peaked at around 100 cases weekly.
That 2019 outbreak was no small matter — it resulted in 2,185 confirmed infections and saw 768 hospitalizations, with roughly half of those being children. This context makes the current situation particularly alarming. As of now, 13 confirmed cases have been reported across six regions, and over 2,100 people are believed to have been exposed. Health officials are racing to contain the spread, warning that the healthcare system could become overwhelmed if weekly cases climb past 100.
The PHF’s detailed modelling report — which used AI-driven simulations to create realistic population scenarios — was shared with Health Minister Simeon Brown back in May. It wasn’t designed to predict the future, but rather to explore “what if” situations over a six-month period, helping officials plan effective responses. By factoring in New Zealand’s declining 2024 childhood vaccination rates, researchers simulated outcomes similar to the 2019 outbreak and tested how different conditions might amplify or reduce the spread.
Here’s a crucial finding: raising vaccination rates by just five percent could cut hospitalizations in half during an outbreak. However, timing is everything — that increase would need to happen quickly to make a real difference.
But this raises a bigger question — why are vaccination rates dropping in the first place? Experts have been warning for years that a new outbreak was inevitable, pointing to a growing gap in immunity. Many young adults likely missed one or both doses of the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine as children, and current coverage among young children has fallen to 82%, and an even more concerning 72% among Māori children under five.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has already issued a sharp warning to New Zealand, urging the country to close what it calls “alarming gaps” in vaccination among Māori and Pacific communities. To achieve herd immunity, 95% of the population needs full coverage — a benchmark New Zealand is still far from reaching.
So, while PHF’s modelling isn’t a crystal ball, it does highlight one uncomfortable truth: without swift and widespread vaccination efforts, history could repeat itself — and this time, the healthcare system might not be ready.
What do you think? Are vaccination campaigns failing to reach the people who need them most — or are communities losing trust in the system? Share your thoughts below — because this debate affects every one of us.
