Get ready for a winter like no other! The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its winter forecast for 2025-2026, and it's packed with intriguing predictions. But here's the twist: it's not just about the snow!
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has unveiled its latest outlook, focusing on seasonal changes across the United States during the crucial months of December, January, and February. And it's a doozy!
The Big Picture: Most of the contiguous U.S. is in for a warmer-than-average winter, with southern states experiencing a particularly dry and toasty season. Meanwhile, the northern states can expect a cooler and wetter climate.
But here's where it gets controversial: these weather patterns are influenced by the recent shift to La Niña, the cooler phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. ENSO is like a climate seesaw, determined by sea surface temperatures and precipitation levels in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
NOAA officials announced earlier this month that the U.S. had moved from the 'neutral' phase to La Niña, as sea surface temperatures dipped below average. And this is the part most people miss: La Niña and its counterpart, El Niño, have a massive impact on North American weather.
La Niña typically brings drought to the southern U.S. and flooding rains to the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During winter, it often leads to warmer, drier conditions in the South and cooler, wetter conditions in the North.
Forecasters predict La Niña will stick around until February 2026, before transitioning back to the neutral phase as spring arrives.
NOAA's winter outlook doesn't predict snowfall, but it does forecast above-normal precipitation along the West Coast, including the Pacific Northwest, northern California, the northern Rockies, Great Plains, and western Great Lakes. This aligns with La Niña's characteristic effects.
Similarly, the southern half of the country can expect drier-than-normal conditions, with NOAA predicting low precipitation across the Southwest, southern Texas, and the Southeast.
Outside the contiguous U.S., northwestern Alaska is predicted to have warmer-than-usual winter months, while the state's panhandle is expected to be cooler than normal. Western Alaska is forecast to receive above-average precipitation, while the panhandle area is predicted to be drier.
A separate forecast is issued for the Hawaiian islands.
So, there you have it! A winter forecast that's more than just about the snow. But here's the real question: do you think NOAA's predictions will hold true? Share your thoughts in the comments and let's discuss!
