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Woloshin S, Schwartz LM, Welch HG. Know Your Chances: Understanding Health Statistics. Berkeley (CA): University of California Press; 2008.
Know Your Chances: Understanding Health Statistics.
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Number Converter
| 1 in __ | Decimal | Percent | __ out of 1,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 in 1 | 1.00 | 100% | 1,000 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 2 | 0.50 | 50% | 500 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 3 | 0.33 | 33% | 333 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 4 | 0.25 | 25% | 250 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 5 | 0.20 | 20% | 200 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 6 | 0.17 | 17% | 167 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 7 | 0.14 | 14% | 143 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 8 | 0.13 | 13% | 125 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 9 | 0.11 | 11% | 111 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 10 | 0.10 | 10% | 100 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 20 | 0.05 | 5.0% | 50 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 25 | 0.04 | 4.0% | 40 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 50 | 0.02 | 2.0% | 20 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 100 | 0.01 | 1.0% | 10 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 200 | 0.0050 | 0.50% | 5 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 250 | 0.0040 | 0.40% | 4 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 300 | 0.0033 | 0.33% | 3.3 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 400 | 0.0025 | 0.25% | 2.5 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 500 | 0.0020 | 0.20% | 2.0 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 600 | 0.0017 | 0.17% | 1.7 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 700 | 0.0014 | 0.14% | 1.4 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 800 | 0.0013 | 0.13% | 1.3 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 900 | 0.0011 | 0.11% | 1.1 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 1,000 | 0.0010 | 0.10% | 1.0 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 2,000 | 0.00050 | 0.050% | 0.50 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 3,000 | 0.00033 | 0.033% | 0.33 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 4,000 | 0.00025 | 0.025% | 0.25 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 5,000 | 0.00020 | 0.020% | 0.20 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 10,000 | 0.00010 | 0.010% | 0.10 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 25,000 | 0.00004 | 0.004% | 0.040 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 50,000 | 0.00002 | 0.002% | 0.020 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 100,000 | 0.00001 | 0.001% | 0.010 out of 1,000 |
| 1 in 1,000,000 | 0.000001 | 0.0001% | 0.001 out of 1,000 |
Note: For numbers less than 1 out of 1,000 (such as 0.50 out of 1,000), it is clearer to recast them as “___ out of 10,000” (“5 out of 10,000,” for instance), because it allows you to use a whole number rather than a decimal.
Risk Chart for Men
Find the line closest to your age and smoking status. The numbers in that row tell you how many out of 1,000 men in that group will die in the next 10 years from . . .
| Age | Smoking Status | Vascular Disease | Cancer | Infection | Lung Disease | Accidents | All Causes Combined | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Attack | Stroke | Lung | Colon | Prostate | Pneumonia | Flu | AIDS | COPD | ||||
| 35 | Never smoked | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 15 | ||||||
| Smoker | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 42 | ||||||
| 40 | Never smoked | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 24 | ||||
| Smoker | 14 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 62 | ||||
| 45 | Never smoked | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 35 | ||||
| Smoker | 21 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 91 | |||
| 50 | Never smoked | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 49 | ||
| Smoker | 29 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 128 | ||
| 55 | Never smoked | 19 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 74 | |
| Smoker | 41 | 7 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 178 | ||
| 60 | Never smoked | 32 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 115 | |
| Smoker | 56 | 11 | 59 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 256 | ||
| 65 | Never smoked | 52 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 176 | ||
| Smoker | 74 | 16 | 89 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 26 | 5 | 365 | |||
| 70 | Never smoked | 87 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 291 | ||
| Smoker | 100 | 26 | 113 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 45 | 6 | 511 | |||
| 75 | Never smoked | 137 | 32 | 8 | 13 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 449 | ||
| Smoker | 140 | 39 | 109 | 11 | 15 | 16 | 60 | 9 | 667 | |||
Source: Steven Woloshin, Lisa Schwartz, and H. Gilbert Welch, “The Risk of Death by Age, Sex, and Smoking Status in the United States: Putting Health Risks in Context,” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 100 (2008): 845–853.
Note: Shaded portions mean that the chance is less than 1 out of 1,000. People who have never smoked are defined as those who do not smoke now and who have smoked fewer than 100 cigarettes in their lifetime. Smokers are defined as people who have smoked at least 100 cigarettes in their lifetime and who currently smoke (any amount). COPD is chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, which includes emphysema and chronic bronchitis. The numbers in the All Causes Combined column do not represent row totals because they include many other causes of death in addition to the ones listed in the chart.
Risk Chart for Women
Find the line closest to your age and smoking status. The numbers in that row tell you how many out of 1,000 women in that group will die in the next 10 years from . . .
| Age | Smoking Status | Vascular Disease | Cancer | Infection | Lung Disease | Accidents | All Causes Combined | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Attack | Stroke | Lung | Breast | Colon | Ovarian | Cervical | Pneumonia | Flu | AIDS | COPD | ||||
| 35 | Never smoked | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | ||||||||
| Smoker | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | |||||||
| 40 | Never smoked | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19 | |||||||
| Smoker | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 27 | ||||||
| 45 | Never smoked | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 25 | ||||
| Smoker | 9 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 45 | |||
| 50 | Never smoked | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 37 | |||||
| Smoker | 13 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 69 | ||||
| 55 | Never smoked | 8 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 55 | ||
| Smoker | 20 | 6 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 110 | |||
| 60 | Never smoked | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 84 | ||
| Smoker | 31 | 8 | 41 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 167 | |||
| 65 | Never smoked | 25 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 131 | ||
| Smoker | 45 | 15 | 55 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 3 | 241 | |||
| 70 | Never smoked | 46 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 207 | ||
| Smoker | 66 | 25 | 61 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 44 | 4 | 335 | |||
| 75 | Never smoked | 86 | 30 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 335 | ||
| Smoker | 99 | 34 | 58 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 61 | 7 | 463 | ||||
Source: Steven Woloshin, Lisa Schwartz, and H. Gilbert Welch, “The Risk of Death by Age, Sex, and Smoking Status in the United States: Putting Health Risks in Context,” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 100 (2008): 845–853.
Note: Shaded portions mean that the chance is less than 1 out of 1,000. People who have never smoked are defined as those who do not smoke now and who have smoked fewer than 100 cigarettes in their lifetime. Smokers are defined as people who have smoked at least 100 cigarettes in their lifetime and who currently smoke (any amount). COPD is chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, which includes emphysema and chronic bronchitis. The numbers in the All Causes Combined column do not represent row totals because they include many other causes of death in addition to the ones listed in the chart.
Copyright © 2008, The Regents of the University ofCalifornia.
Know Your Chances: Understanding Health Statistics is herebylicensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0Unported license, which permits copying, distribution, and transmission of thework, provided the original work is properly cited, not used for commercialpurposes, nor is altered or transformed.
Bookshelf ID: NBK126161
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