Sources
1Diversification does not eliminate the risk of loss.
2Estimates, opinions, and other forward-looking statements set forth herein are based on assumptions that Morgan Stanley believes to be reasonable as of the date hereof, including the analysis of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. The opinions of Morgan Stanley expressed herein reflect the current opinions of Morgan Stanley as of the date appearing in this material only. There can be no guarantee that views and opinions expressed by Morgan Stanley will come to pass. Represents the views of Morgan Stanley professionals based on their industry experience and understanding of the broader private credit market. There is no guarantee these trends will continue.
3Diversification does not eliminate the risk of loss.
4Data represents the period from Q1’08 to Q3’23. Calculated as annualized average returns divided by volatility. Volatility is measured using standard deviation.
5“Direct Lending” is represented by the Cliffwater Direct Lending Index (CDLI) and is calculated from quarterly data, which has been annualized. “High Yield Bonds” is represented by the ICE BofA High Yield Index calculated from annualized monthly data, except for the loss experience chart, where this is sourced from Moody’s. “Leveraged Loans” is represented by the Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan Index calculated from annualized monthly data, except for the loss experience chart, where this is sourced from Moody’s. The index performance is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not meant to depict the performance of a specific investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
6Represents average returns during seven time periods (1Q’09-2Q’09, 4Q’10-1Q’11, 4Q’12-4Q’13, 3Q’16-4Q’16, 3Q’20-1Q’21, 3Q’21-4Q’22, and 2Q’22 and 3Q’23) when rates increased by 75bps+.
7Represents loss rates for the COVID-to-Date period (Q1’20 to Q3’23). Default and Recovery rates are sourced from Moody’s.
Disclosures
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
The views and opinions and/or analysis expressed are those of the author or the investment team as of the date of preparation of this material and are subject to change at any time without notice due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Furthermore, the views will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that subsequently becomes available or circ*mstances existing, or changes occurring, after the date of publication. The views expressed do not reflect the opinions of all investment personnel at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) and its subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively "the Firm"), and may not be reflected in all the strategies and products that the Firm offers.
Forecasts and/or estimates provided herein are subject to change and may not actually come to pass. Information regarding expected market returns and market outlooks is based on the research, analysis and opinions of the authors or the investment team. These conclusions are speculative in nature, may not come to pass and are not intended to predict the future performance of any specific strategy or product the Firm offers. Future results may differ significantly depending on factors such as changes in securities or financial markets or general economic conditions.
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Charts and graphs provided herein are for illustrative purposes only.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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6710773 Exp. June 30, 2025
