REITs Positioned To Make Gains in 2024, Say Industry Experts - NAI Mid-Michigan (2024)

FROM NAI GLOBAL PARTNERS

According to expert panelists at the recent Nareit REITworld annual conference, 2024 could be a year of opportunity for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). They added a note of caution, however, that there are still headwinds affecting investor perspectives on REITs and capital markets in general.

Market upsides

Among the upsides for REIT markets are potential rate cuts in 2024, as well as generally strong positioning for the sector.

As Jeff Horowitz, head of global real estate, gaming, and lodging investment for Bank of America Securities, explained on the panel, REITs are well prepared for a “higher-for-longer” rates environment. He added that public markets in general are “really well positioned” with a typical five-year window on debt maturity at below 4% rates.

“This is a moment when REITs should ultimately be able to play offense…we’ve got to be a little bit more optimistic and a little bit more upbeat because it’s not so bad.”

Investment by asset type

Strong performance in specific asset types was noted as another silver lining for REITs, with panelists pointing specifically to healthcare properties, industrial assets, and data centers. Demand for data centers is expected to continue for the next three to five years, driven by growth in the AI sector.

Looking across other asset types, A-rated malls have also recently been in the REITs spotlight as an asset of choice for picky investors. Those properties are anticipated to see strong NOI (Net Operating Income) growth in coming years, thanks largely to high occupancy, continued tenant demand, and rent growth.

Other areas where we’ve seen strong recent movements include low-priced office REITs and other asset types responding to the possibility that rates may remain stable or decrease in the near future.

Potential headwinds

There are, however, still challenges to keep in mind when it comes to determining how the market may play out in the coming months.

Steve Sakwa, senior managing director for investment banking advisory group Evercore ISI, puts it like this: “The road is still pretty rocky going into next year,” adding that REIT earnings and access to capital was still a “tale of two cities,” with certain asset types facing steeper difficulties ahead.

He noted office assets in particular as: “[B]y far the most distressed, dislocated property type with probably the most uncertainty.”

Rates boosting REITs

Among the strongest factors shaping the REITs market as we move into 2024 is the likelihood of federal interest rate cuts. If those do materialize, we could see a lot of growth for the sector.

According to Sakwa, that scenario holds true if the Federal Reserve cuts rates multiple times. In that case, REITs could be pushed 15-20% higher, with most of those gains materializing in the second half of the year. It’s a bold prediction and certainly well worth keeping an eye on. As always, however, our top advice to real estate professionals and investors is to focus on fundamentals and consider all the factors in play before making any large-scale investment decisions.

REITs Positioned To Make Gains in 2024, Say Industry Experts - NAI Mid-Michigan (2024)

FAQs

REITs Positioned To Make Gains in 2024, Say Industry Experts - NAI Mid-Michigan? ›

Rates boosting REITs

What is the 90% rule for REITs? ›

To qualify as a REIT, a company must have the bulk of its assets and income connected to real estate investment and must distribute at least 90 percent of its taxable income to shareholders annually in the form of dividends.

What is the 5 and 50 rule for REITs? ›

General requirements

A REIT cannot be closely held. A REIT will be closely held if more than 50 percent of the value of its outstanding stock is owned directly or indirectly by or for five or fewer individuals at any point during the last half of the taxable year, (this is commonly referred to as the 5/50 test).

Why REITs are not popular with investors? ›

Private REITs

The lack of government regulation makes it difficult for investors to evaluate them since little to no information is available publicly. Also, they are not required to prepare audited financial statements.

Do REITs perform well during high interest rates? ›

During periods of economic growth, REIT prices tend to rise along with interest rates. The reason is that a growing economy increases the value of REITs because the value of their underlying real estate assets increases.

What is considered bad income for a REIT? ›

Bad REIT earnings tend to run afoul of Section 856, which provides that at least 95% of a REIT's gross income must be derived from “rents from real property.” It also provides that at least 75% of its gross income must be derived from that source.

What is the REIT 10 year rule? ›

For Group REITs, the consequences of leaving early apply when the principal company of the group gives notice for the group as a whole to leave the regime within ten years of joining or where an exiting company has been a member of the Group REIT for less than ten years.

What is the 2 year rule for REITs? ›

IRS safe harbor rules provide relief in situations where a REIT might engage in a prohibited transaction if REIT compliance is not met. To ensure these rules are satisfied: The property held to produce rental income must remain in the REIT for at least two years.

Are REITs double taxed? ›

Unlike many companies however, REIT incomes are not taxed at the corporate level. That means REITs avoid the dreaded “double-taxation” of corporate tax and personal income tax. Instead, REITs are sheltered from corporate taxes so their investors are only taxed once.

How much of a REIT can one person own? ›

It's important to note that five or fewer investors can't own more than 50% of the shares in a REIT or it will be taxed as a personal holding company.

Does Warren Buffett recommend REITs? ›

Conclusion. Warren Buffet prefers to invest in REITs instead of real property because they are a great source of passive income, are reward-oriented, and are more liquid than property ownership.

What is the negative side of REITs? ›

REITs can be sensitive to interest rates and may not be as tax-friendly as other investments. When a REIT is concentrated in a particular sector like hotels, and that sector is negatively impacted, investors can see amplified losses.

What is the average return on a REIT? ›

Due in part to their attractive current yields, REITs have tended to deliver annualized total returns to investors of 10 to 12 percent over time.

How are REITs doing in 2024? ›

After lagging equities the past two years, REITs offer an attractive investment opportunity in 2024. The headwind of higher bond yields and central bank rate hikes is likely to abate and may turn into a tailwind if our view about an impending economic slowdown and decelerating inflation trends is correct.

Do REITs do well in a recession? ›

REITs Outperform Stocks During Recessions

Publicly traded stocks rely heavily on the performance of the companies that are being traded in order to succeed. During a recession, those companies struggle, and their stock value drops.

What are the most profitable REITs to invest in? ›

Best-performing REIT mutual funds: June 2024
SymbolFund name1-year return
CSDIXCohen & Steers Real Estate Securities11.23%
JABGXJHanco*ck Real Estate Securities R610.31%
RRRRXDWS RREEF Real Estate Securities9.01%
BRIUXBaron Real Estate Income7.83%
1 more row
Jun 3, 2024

What is the 75 75 90 rule for REITs? ›

Invest at least 75% of total assets in real estate or cash. Earn at least 75% of gross income from rents, interest on mortgages that finance real property, or real estate sales. Pay a minimum of 90% of taxable income in the form of shareholder dividends each year.

What are the 3 conditions to qualify as a REIT? ›

Derive at least 75% of its gross income from rents from real property, interest on mortgages financing real property or from sales of real estate. Pay at least 90% of its taxable income in the form of shareholder dividends each year. Be an entity that is taxable as a corporation.

How much of my retirement should be in REITs? ›

“I recommend REITs within a managed portfolio,” Devine said, noting that most investors should limit their REIT exposure to between 2 percent and 5 percent of their overall portfolio. Here again, a financial professional can help you determine what percentage of your portfolio you should allocate toward REITs, if any.

What is the 30% rule for REITs? ›

30% Rule. This rule was introduced with the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) and is part of Section 163(j) of the IRS Code. It states that a REIT may not deduct business interest expenses that exceed 30% of adjusted taxable income. REITs use debt financing, where the business interest expense comes in.

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