Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin's Potential Surge to $250,000 by 2025 (2024)

According to Geoff Kendrick, the head of FX research, west and digital assets research at Standard Chartered Bank, Bitcoin's price could potentially surge to approximately US$250,000 by 2025 if the current trend of inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continues. Kendrick also suggests that if reserve managers announce their acquisition of Bitcoin, it could further drive its price upward, settling it around US$200,000 by the end of 2025.

Since the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs on January 11, there has been a significant influx of funds into these ETFs, surpassing increases in open interest. Kendrick notes that while open interest levels are nearing those seen in 2021, the overall market positioning appears to be more sustainable this time, with most inflows coming from stable pension-type funds.

Standard Chartered analysts have historically used gold as a comparison to predict Bitcoin's price movements based on ETF flows. Kendrick incorporates this comparison into his projections, using various gold-based measures to estimate Bitcoin's future price trajectory.

Kendrick draws parallels between the maturation of the ETP market for gold and the anticipated faster maturation of the ETF market for Bitcoin. He predicts that this accelerated maturation could lead to a price increase similar to that seen in gold, resulting in a projected price level of US$200,000 by the end of 2025.

Additionally, Kendrick suggests that an optimized gold-bitcoin portfolio could indicate a price level of around US$190,000 based on an 80% gold and 20% Bitcoin allocation. Furthermore, extrapolating the correlation between ETF inflows and Bitcoin's price suggests a potential price level of US$250,000 if total ETF inflows reach his mid-point estimate of US$75 billion.

While Kendrick maintains a baseline price estimate of US$200,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2025, he acknowledges the possibility of an overshoot to US$250,000 if ETF inflows exceed expectations or if reserve managers increase their Bitcoin holdings. As of the end of 2024, Kendrick has revised his price estimate to US$150,000, citing the rapid impact of ETF inflows on Bitcoin's price thus far.

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