Stellar (XLM) Analysis (2024)

Trade setup: Bearish breakout below $0.10 and 200-day moving average. Trends are mixed now. Near-term, price appears oversold (RSI ~ 30) and could bounce up, albeit briefly. (set a price alert).

Momentum is Bearish but inflecting. MACD Line is below MACD Signal Line and RSI is below 45 but momentum may have bottomed since MACD Histogram bars are rising, which suggests that momentum could be nearing another upswing.

Support and Resistance: Nearest Support Zone is $0.075. The nearest Resistance Zone is $0.100 (previous support), then $0.130.

Stellar is an open-source payments network that serves as a distributed intermediary blockchain for global financial systems and circulates a native asset, Stellar Lumens (XLM). The Stellar blockchain allows anyone to issue new assets in the network and exchange for other assets via built-in asset exchange features. Assets on Stellar are issued and redeemed by anchors, who are trusted entities that issue digital credits on the Stellar network in exchange for deposits of the asset with the trusted entity. Anchors enable real world assets to be exchanged on Stellar by leveraging adistributed exchange that maintains an order book for every asset pair. Stellar supports the issuance of any type of asset including stocks, currencies, cryptoassets and more.

History

After leavingRipplein 2013 due to internal conflicts over vision,Jed McCaleb, along with partner Joyce Kim, forked the Ripple protocol and launched the Stellar project in 2014. With the creation of the non-for profitStellar Development Foundation(SDF), the team aimed to “promote global financial access, literacy, and inclusion…and create an open and affordable financial system where people of all income levels can access simple-to-use, secure, and low cost financial services.” The Stellar Development Foundation was created in collaboration with Stripe CEO Patrick Collison. Stripe invested $3 million in seed funding and received 2 billion Stellar Lumens (XLM) in exchange.

At launch the network generated 100 billion XLM and featured a 1% annual issuance rate. In 2015, Stellar redesigned its consensus protocol following a ledger fork in 2014 that rolled back hours of transactions. It’s new and current consensus protocol called “Stellar Consensus Protocol” was developed by Stanford professorDavid Mazières, chief scientist of the SDF.

In 2017, Jed McCaleb and Brit Yonge launchedLightyearas a for-profit entity of Stellar, that would build a universal payment network on Stellar. In 2017, Stellar announced a grants program that would award partners up to $2 million worth of Lumens for project development. In October 2019 Stellar removed the 1% annual issuance rate from the Stellar protocol stating that it was not benefiting the projects building on Stellar. In November 2019, the Stellar Development Foundationannouncedit burned more than 55 billion XLM (~55%) tokens as it moves away from airdrop programs.

Previously the foundation had retained 68 billion XLM earmarked for giveaways in order to grow the community. Citing a declining utility from airdrops, the SDF burned 50 billion of those tokens along with 5 billion of the 17 billion previously held in its operating fund. The burn reduced the total supply to 50 billion XLM of which SDF’s ownership of the total dropped from XLM supply from 85% to 60%.

Technology

The Stellar blockchain consensus mechanism is called Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP), an implementation of the Federated Byzantine Agreement (FBA). The FBA is a fairly new consensus mechanism pioneered by Ripple. The SCP is the first provable safe FBA blockchain protocol. An FBA allows nodes to choose which peers the trust based on intrinsic or extrinsic factors set by the nodes. This dynamic creates network-wide quorums as individual nodes relay and verify network activity information. FBAs rely on “quorum slices” to reach consensus—subsets of a quorum that can convince an individual node to agree with the “slice.” Stellar nodes can choose their own quorum slices.

To attack the Stellar network, a reputable institution would need to control 51% or more of the network’s trusted nodes. Stellar disinventivizes this by financial rewarding honest actors in the network via fees and other rewards. Stellar also adds an element of reputation and social identity by keeping network actors as known entities, which incentivizes financial institutions to maintain the trust of their peers.

Some of these trusted financial institutions are called Anchors, a crucial part of the Stellar blockchain network. Anchors maintain wallets with fiat and XLM balances to allow currency exchange. Anchors control the fees they charge for network peers to use their services, and users can pick which anchor manages their exchanges. The Stellar blockchain also supports launching native assets similar to issuing tokens on Ethereum. Compared to Ethereum, Stellar aims to offer faster transactions and lower network fees. All assets on the Stellar blockchain are not traded only by exchanging credits across between accounts in the network that are managed by anchors.

Supply Curve Details

As detailed in the launch section, the Stellar Development Foundation initially designed a distribution schedule that would help grow the number of XLM holders by airdropping the supply initially issued (100 billion XLM) to specific groups. Nevertheless, those distribution mechanisms initially designed by the SDF proved hard to effectively execute: Out of the 20 billion XLM to be distributed to Bitcoin holders (19 billion) and XRP holders (1 billion), only 2.037 billion were distributed in two rounds, inOctober 2016 andAugust 2017. The rest (17.963 billion) was re-allocated to the SDF operational budget in 2017. As such, the SDF increased its operational budget, initially set at 3 billion XLM by 600% through this re-allocation. Out of the 50 billion XLM to be distributed through the Direct Sign-up program, the SDF only managed to effectively distribute 4.2 billion XLM, less than 10% of what was originally planned. Out of the 25 billion XLM to be distributed through the Partnership program, the SDF only managed to effectively distribute 1.138 billion XLM, less than 5% of what was originally planned. It’s also interesting to note that the address that received this 1.138 billion XLM sent then back to the SDF-managed address in November 2019, right before the SDF burnt 55 billion XLM, as detailed below. Globally, the SDF only managed to distribute 7.375 billion XLM through these three programs, instead of the 95 billion initially scheduled. Built-in Inflation Mechanism Until October 2019, the Stellar ledger also featured a built-in, fixed, nominal inflation mechanism.

New Lumens were added to the network at a rate of 1% each year. Each week, the protocol would distribute these Lumens to any account that receives over 0.05% of the “votes” from other accounts in the network. Given the very high supply concentration within the SDF treasury addresses due to the inefficiency of the distribution mechanisms, the SDF would receive over 95% of the votes, and thus 95% of the built-in inflation, increasing its operational budget by more than 4 billion XLM thanks to this built-in inflation mechanism. In October 2019 Stellar removed the 1% annual issuance rate from the Stellar protocol stating that it was not benefiting the projects building on Stellar. 2017 Inflation Exploit From January to April 2017, Stellar suffered a serious inflation bug,discovered in 2019 by Messari. The bug was exploited, significantly inflationary, and patched with little publicity in April 2017. The attacker was able to create over 2.2 billion Lumens worth nearly $10 million at the time. Once it discovered and patched the bug, the SDF destroyed the equivalent number of coins that were created through the bug. Nevertheless, the XLM burned to offset the inflation bug came from the Direct Sing-up program allocation. As such, the SDF burnt supply that was meant to be distributed to the crowd to offset an inflation bug that was exploited by an attacker.

Conscious of the difficulty to distribute this important supply overhang, the SDF decided to burn more than 55 billion XLM in November 2019. 37.6 billion XLM were burned from the Direct Sign-up Program allocation, reducing the supply left to be distributed to 4 billion XLM. As a result, instead of distributing 50 billion XLM through the Direct Sign-up program, the SDF will only distribute a maximum of 8.2 billion XLM (4.2 billion distributed from 2015 to 2019 and 4 billion left to be distributed). 12.988 billion XLM were burned from the Partnership program, reducing the supply left to be distributed to 8 billion XLM. As a result, instead of distribution 25 billion XLM through the Partnership program, the SDF will only distribute a maximum of 8 billion XLM. 4.88 billion XLM were burned from the SDF operational budget. Nevertheless, this burn only offset the newly issued XLM received through the built-in inflation during the first 5 years of the protocol. Through this burn, the SDF reduced the maximum supply from 105 billion XLM to 50 billion XLM.

Consensus Details

Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP) is a modified version of Federated Byzantine Agreement (FBA). In an FBA system, there are quorums and quorum slices. Quorum is a set of nodes sufficient to reach agreement. Given that an FBA system is open participation, meaning that participants can join and leave as they please, it is impossible for the system to know how many nodes are sufficient for quorum without knowing the identities and amounts of nodes in the system. Thus, FBA introduces a concept of quorum slices nodes. A quorum slice is a subset of a quorum that can convince one particular node about agreement.

In an FBA system nodes broadcast and individually determine which quorums slices to trust, and build their own quorum based on the information they have at hand. In FBA systems it is crucial that these quoroms overlap to ensure the network reaches consensus. Ripple for example, provides a list of trusted validators to use in order ensure there is overlap when participating in the Ripple Consensus Protocol (RCP).

Consensus in FBA systems is reached through a multi round process where validators share ledger candidates between each other, adding and subtracting transactions until their candidate proposals match what their validators in their quorom slice proposed. Once a supermajority is reached, each server independently computes a new ledger hash from the agreed-upon set of transactions and compares results. Once a super majority of validators agree upon the hash of the new ledger candidate, the ledger candidate is considered final. SCP differentiates itself from RCP in that validators can choose their own quorom slices rather than using a pre-defined one (from Ripple). Furthermore, rather than relying on a super majority of nodes for consensus SCP introduces notions of validator quality, where validators are weighted based on trustworthiness and reliability, and validator grouping, where validators are grouped by organization. SCP posit these additions allow for stronger quorums.

Asset profile is provided by messari. Original version can be found at Messari

Stellar (XLM) Analysis (2024)

FAQs

Will XLM reach $1? ›

Answer: Stellar Lumens has the potential to reach only around $1 in 2025 and $3 in 2027 or beyond. We could see a $5 beyond 2030 if the current crypto economic situation is sustained.

Is Stellar Xlm a good investment? ›

Yes. Analysts from WalletInvestor and TradingBeasts consider Stellar XLM to be a good investment idea. It is expected that XLM coin may show a positive trend in the long term. Please always do your own research before opening a trade.

What will XLM be worth in 2025? ›

Stellar (XLM) Price Predictions 2023 - 2031
YearMinimum PriceAverage Price
2024$0.194375$0.22088
2025$0.282727$0.309233
2026$0.371079$0.397585
2027$0.459431$0.485937
5 more rows
3 days ago

Is XLM bullish or bearish? ›

The Stellar (XLM) price has fallen since a long-term resistance area rejected it at the end of May. Even though there are signs of a potential bounce developing, the majority of long- and short-term readings suggest that the trend is still bearish.

How high can XLM go? ›

According to the technical analysis of Stellar prices expected in 2023, the minimum cost of Stellar will be $0.0734306562. The maximum level that the XLM price can reach is $0.0858709121. The average trading price is expected around $0.0983111679.

Should I buy Stellar or Ripple? ›

However, the choice between them depends on your preferences. Stellar is a more decentralised platform which is also highly accessible to ordinary users. On the other hand, Ripple is highly secure, but can only be used by a controlled group of financial institutions.

Will XLM make me a millionaire? ›

Yes, it can – if you own millions of XLM tokens. Right now, you would need around 12 million XLM tokens to be a millionaire. Even if it goes 10x, you would still need millions of tokens to be a millionaire in terms of USD.

Is Stellar worth holding? ›

The potential increased value could make XLM an excellent asset to buy and hold. Of course, the coin's value is closely tied to its utility and ability to solve real-world problems. Lumens check both boxes because of Stellar's ability to process international payments quickly, efficiently and at low cost.

Is Stellar better than Ethereum? ›

Whenever some new computational ability is added to Stellar, it's created and approved by a community and then implemented into Stellar on a fundamental level. So there's less freedom than with Ethereum, but it's far faster and trimmer as a result.

Can XLM go to $100? ›

The future of Stellar Lumens remains bright and there has never been a better time to invest in this promising cryptocurrency. Although a future where the Stellar Lumens hits $10 or $100 is still improbable, few currencies can boast of having such positive reviews.

Can Stellar Lumens reach $20? ›

Investors and crypto industry observers are convinced that Stellar Lumens will be worth more in 5 years than they are today. And while volatilities and rapidly changing crypto market dynamics make it impossible to accurately predict future XLM prices, these analysts believe that it may be trading at between $1 and $20.

Will Shiba Inu ever reach $1 cent? ›

With the current circulating supply, Shiba Inu is unlikely to reach 1 cent any time soon. The overall market cap of Shiba Inu has been fluctuating around $6 billion for the last couple of weeks.

Is Stellar Lumens burning coins? ›

In November 2019, the Stellar Development Foundation announced it burned more than 55 billion XLM (~55%) tokens as it moves away from airdrop programs. Previously the foundation had retained 68 billion XLM earmarked for giveaways in order to grow the community.

Can Stellar reach $1000 dollars? ›

XLM Price Prediction: Can Stellar Lumens (XLM) reach $1,000? To reach a level of $1000, XLM needs to grow at a rate of 12,500 times (which is of course too high), considering its current price of $0.08.

Why is XLM price so low? ›

Why Is Stellar Lumens XLM So Cheap? A number of factors can be attributed to Stellar Lumens XLM incredibly cheap prices. One could argue the case of demand and supply, competition, and the most recent Ripple effect. Demand and supply here affect Stellar Lumens prices in two ways.

How much will XLM be worth in 2040? ›

Stellar Price Predictions
YearPrice Prediction
2024$0.48
2025$0.60
2030$0.91
2040$5.87
1 more row

Where will XLM be in 2030? ›

Stellar price prediction September 2030: Stellar's price for September 2030 according to our analysis should range between $0.27 to $0.31 and the average price of XLM should be around $0.29.

Which cryptocurrency has the most potential? ›

Which is the best potential cryptocurrency to invest in? The best potential cryptocurrency to invest in is AiDoge. The platform's native token, $AI, will let users create memes, vote on them, and earn rewards if their memes become popular.

Is Stellar risky? ›

Stellar receives an average risk rating from InvestorsObserver analysis.

Is Stellar a fork of XRP? ›

Stellar also uses a distributed ledger protocol to process transactions, and its code is very similar to Ripples. In fact, lots of people think that it is a fork of Ripple, however, the Stellar Lumens developers say that it is not.

What is benefit of XLM? ›

Advantages. Thanks to its proprietary consensus mechanism, Stellar Lumens has faster, cheaper transaction speeds, and transactions typically cost less than a penny. This is a significant advantage over other global payment companies which charge higher fees.

Will 1000 XLM make me rich? ›

And the short answer to this is YES. Stellar Lumens investment can turn you into a super-rich crypto investor when done right. Analysis by most crypto investment experts and Stellar Lumens investors indicates that XLM prices will be way higher in the next 5 to 10 years than they are today.

How much is 20 000 XLM in dollars? ›

20000 Stellar Lumens is 1870.792 US Dollar.

How much is 100k XLM in usd? ›

100000 Stellar Lumens is 8872.169 US Dollar.

Why is Stellar tanking? ›

There is no obvious reason why Stellar has dropped so far down so quickly, the foundation has been getting their heads down and developing the project so maybe it is time to ignore the prices and focus on the products for Stellar and all crypto assets.

What price will Stellar reach? ›

Further, according to our analysis in the long term, Stellar price prediction for November 2023 shows the average price of XLM at $0.084 and the highest possible price for November 2023 would be $0.09.

Is Stellar better than Bitcoin? ›

The Stellar blockchain uses a consensus algorithm that is faster, cheaper, and more energy-efficient than that of Bitcoin.

What is the disadvantage of Stellar? ›

The main disadvantage lies in the low speed of transactions. Stellar's security system is far from ideal. Stellar is well suited for building simple decentralized applications. Stellar's annual inflation rate is 1%.

Why is Stellar undervalued? ›

Some reasons include the following: 1) Not enough people know about Stellar Lumens. 2) Not enough people are using Stellar Lumens. Would you invest in Stellar Lumens (XLM) cryptocurrency in 2020?

What crypto is like Stellar? ›

Top 10 Alternatives & Competitors to Stellar..
  • Ethereum. (39)4.3 out of 5.
  • Metamask. (27)4.5 out of 5.
  • Corda. (22)4.3 out of 5.
  • Kaleido. (21)4.8 out of 5.
  • Coinbase Institutional. (21)4.0 out of 5.
  • Blockstream. (17)4.2 out of 5.
  • Hyperledger. (16)4.1 out of 5.
  • GoCoin. (15)4.4 out of 5.

Will XLM reach $500? ›

By the end of next year, Stellar will have what it takes to hit $100. The Stellar price prediction 2025 places the price of Stellar as high as $500 as long as the developments continue on the blockchain. What do you think about the XLM price prediction in our Stellar Lumens news today?

Can you make money on XLM? ›

You can earn interest on XLM just like you would with a traditional bank savings account but with one key difference. Instead of near to zero interest rates at banks, we offer you 5.65% interest on Stellar.

When to sell XLM? ›

You may want to sell XLM if you're seeking to: Avoid losses or capture gains in times of price volatility. Realize gains from previous XLM purchases. Claim gains or losses as part of your annual tax reporting.

Why is Stellar Lumens struggling? ›

Despite being notable for its impressive transaction speed attributed to its shortened approval cycle, Stella Lumens is currently struggling because it has an exceedingly small circulation volume coupled with the fact that the development pattern on the platform is slow.

What is the 5 year projection for Stellar Lumens? ›

As per the Stellar Lumens price prediction 2025, the coin might touch a maximum price of $0.311, while on the downside, it might fall up to $0.216. As per our XLM prediction, the average price might be trading around $0.264 by the end of 2025.

Can XRP reach $1000? ›

If you're wanting to get an in-depth overview of the XRP and its future, you're at the right place. This article reviews this coin's prospects and what it holds in the future for the crypto market and investors. Plus, we've answered the question, "Can XRP reach $1000?" Overall, this is unlikely in the coming years.

Can Shiba hit .10 cents? ›

Can Shiba Inu reach a penny? Technically speaking, Shiba Inu could reach a penny if enough capital were to start investing in dog-themed cryptocurrencies. But since Shiba Inu would need trillions in capital to reach $0.01, institutions and governments would need to purchase SHIB, which seems highly unlikely.

Can SHIB reach 50 cents? ›

The forecast of the price of the SHIB cryptocurrency with respect to the goal of 50 cents on the dollar is clear: it is a value that this token it won't reach in 2022, and unless the math changes, it won't do it in the following years either. In fact, Shiba Inu (SHIB) will most likely never be worth $0.50 or 50 cents.

How much is 1 million Shiba Inu worth? ›

1000000 SHIBA INU is 8.765025 US Dollar.

Is Stellar Lumens better than Ripple? ›

Stellar's cryptocurrency is more accessible for the average individual. This is what makes it unique. Unlike Ripple that is more directed towards banks, Stellar is focusing more on people, especially those who live in parts of the world that are still developing.

What companies accept Stellar Lumens? ›

Some of the top exchanges that list lumens (XLM).
  • Coinbase. Coinbase is a US-based exchange and helps you earn lumens for learning about Stellar.
  • Kraken. Kraken is a US-based exchange with a web-based trading experience.
  • Binance. ...
  • Bittrex. ...
  • Bitfinex. ...
  • Upbit. ...
  • Coincheck. ...
  • Huobi.

How much would Stellar Lumens be worth? ›

Stellar Lumens Price Chart (XLM/USD)
24 Hour High24 Hour LowMarket Capitalization
0.09 USD0.09 USD2,340,515,233.17 USD

What is best crypto to buy now? ›

An In-Depth Analysis of the Best Cryptos to Buy Now
  • Bitcoin – The First and Largest Cryptocurrency With Unparalleled Long-Term Potential. ...
  • Ethereum – Top Crypto to Buy for Long-Term Growth Loved by Web3 Developers. ...
  • Cardano – Unique Blockchain With Growing Developer Activity. ...
  • IOTA – Payment Protocol for IoT Devices.
May 5, 2023

Is XRP and XLM the same? ›

XRP and XLM are altcoins that focus on managing cross-border transactions. XLM is available mainly to those who don't have access to traditional banking functions. XRP is for people who do business with banks.

Does Stellar have inflation? ›

Before Protocol 12, Stellar had a built-in inflation mechanism designed to allow account holders to collectively direct inflation-generated lumens toward projects built on Stellar.

Can XLM hit 5? ›

Answer: Stellar Lumens has the potential to reach only around $1 in 2025 and $3 in 2027 or beyond. We could see a $5 beyond 2030 if the current crypto economic situation is sustained.

Should I own XLM? ›

The quick answer to this is that Stellar Lumens (XLM) is worth buying in 2023 for long-term investors. Note that while the coin is still popular, the growth of the biggest XLM price influencer - the Stellar blockchain network - is gradual, implying that its coin prices will most likely grow at an equally slower pace.

Who owns Stellar Lumens? ›

Stellar lumens (XLM) are the tokens released as native assets by the Stellar Development Foundation, a nonprofit launched by Ripple co-founder Jed McCaleb in 2014.

How much will XLM cost in 2040? ›

XLM Coin Price Prediction 2040

By 2040, we may expect an average price of $66.89 depending upon the market trend. Our maximum price prediction for Stellar Lumens Coin is $75.78 in 2040.

Why is XLM so cheap? ›

Why Is Stellar Lumens XLM So Cheap? A number of factors can be attributed to Stellar Lumens XLM incredibly cheap prices. One could argue the case of demand and supply, competition, and the most recent Ripple effect. Demand and supply here affect Stellar Lumens prices in two ways.

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