The golden rule of investing | Robeco Global (2024)

Warren Buffet’s first rule of investing is to never lose money; his second is to never forget the first rule. This golden rule is key for long-term capital protection and growth. One oft-used strategy to limit losses in turbulent markets is an allocation to gold. Gold investing is widely regarded as a safe haven during extreme macroeconomic downturns in periods of war, hyperinflation, or major recessions.

But do such allocations to gold really provide the expected protection in practice? And even if so, are there any better ways to mitigate risks? To answer these questions, we revisited the strategic role of gold in investment portfolios and focused on its marginal downside risk reduction benefits relative to bonds and equities.

Our analysis, featured in a new research paper, focuses on annual real returns starting in 1975, when gold became truly tradeable. We took the perspective of a US investor who could strategically invest in equities, bonds, and gold and would care about a wide range of downside risk measures, including downside volatility, loss probability and expected loss.

The key findings of our empirical study are that a modest gold allocation in a traditional mix of equities and bonds reduces the risk of capital losses by around 10% across a wide range of equity-bond allocations. Still, this also reduces the return, leading to a small increase in the return/risk ratio as shown in Figure 1 summarizing the main findings of this study.

Figure 1: Four defensive portfolios

The golden rule of investing | Robeco Global (1)

Source: Lohre, H., and Van Vliet, P. (2023) “The golden rule of investing”, working paper.

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Importantly, however, our simulations show that the downside volatility can be reduced further by adopting a low volatility style in the equity investment and letting this defensive equity allocation replace part of the bond allocation. The portfolio with the lowest downside volatility on a one-year horizon consists of 45% bonds, 45% low-volatility stocks and 10% gold.

Our simulations show that the downside volatility can be reduced further by adopting a low volatility style

As a result, this defensive mix has significantly lower downside risk than a traditional equities/bonds portfolio, with higher returns leading to a large increase in the Sortino ratio. This defensive strategy therefore proves to be an effective way for investors to adhere to Buffet’s golden rule, while still delivering long-term capital growth.

Moreover, additional simulations and robustness checks show that these key findings hold not just for the one-year returns initially considered, but also for a wide range of investment horizons, ranging from one month up to 36 months. While these results are robust when gold futures are used instead of a direct gold investment, adding gold mining stocks is less effective in reducing the downside risk of a low-volatility equity portfolio. Lastly, we document that, while the risk mitigation role of gold is muted in a mean-variance setup, low volatility investing is considered just as relevant as when evaluated through a downside risk lens.

Read the full paper on SSRN

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FAQs

The golden rule of investing | Robeco Global? ›

Warren Buffet's first rule of investing is to never lose money; his second is to never forget the first rule. This golden rule is key for long-term capital protection and growth. One oft-used strategy to limit losses in turbulent markets is an allocation to gold.

What is the golden rule of investment? ›

Rule No.

1 is never lose money. Rule No. 2 is never forget Rule No. 1.” The Oracle of Omaha's advice stresses the importance of avoiding loss in your portfolio.

What is the 10/5/3 rule of investment? ›

According to this rule, stocks can potentially return 10% annually, bonds 5%, and cash 3%. While these figures are not guarantees, they serve as a guideline for investors to forecast potential returns and adjust their portfolio accordingly.

What is the universal rule of investing? ›

A universal rule that most young investors know is diversification, i.e. don't put all of your investing capital into one name. Diversification is a good rule of thumb, but it can also diminish your profits when one of your picks makes a big move while other names don't.

What is the golden rule level of investment? ›

The steady-state, value of k which maximizes consumption per worker is called the Golden Rule Level of Capital, a term first coined by Edmund Phelps and is denoted by k*g. In order to ascertain whether the economy is at the Golden Rule level, we have to determine first the steady-state consumption per worker.

What is Warren Buffett's golden rule? ›

"Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1."- Warren Buffet.

What are Warren Buffett's 5 rules of investing? ›

A: Five rules drawn from Warren Buffett's wisdom for potentially building wealth include investing for the long term, staying informed, maintaining a competitive advantage, focusing on quality, and managing risk.

What is the 70% investor rule? ›

Basically, the rule says real estate investors should pay no more than 70% of a property's after-repair value (ARV) minus the cost of the repairs necessary to renovate the home. The ARV of a property is the amount a home could sell for after flippers renovate it.

What is the 70 20 10 rule for investing? ›

It indicates an expandable section or menu, or sometimes previous / next navigation options. It's an approach to budgeting that encourages setting aside 70% of your take-home pay for living expenses and discretionary purchases, 20% for savings and investments, and 10% for debt repayment or donations.

What is the 80% rule investing? ›

In this case, many investors will find that roughly 20% of their investment holdings will lead to about 80% of their growth. While these percentages won't be exact, the general rule applies that a small number of your investments will result in the most growth.

Do 90% of millionaires make over 100k a year? ›

Ninety-three percent of millionaires said they got their wealth because they worked hard, not because they had big salaries. Only 31% averaged $100,000 a year over the course of their career, and one-third never made six figures in any single working year of their career.

What is the golden rule of wealth? ›

1. Earn More Than Your Spend. Regardless of how much money you make, if you never save any of it, you will never build up any substantial amount of wealth. It is not how much you make but how much you keep that matters.

What is the 7% loss rule? ›

To make money in stocks, you must protect the money you already have. That brings us to the cardinal rule of selling. Always sell a stock it if falls 7%-8% below what you paid for it. This basic principle helps you always cap your potential downside.

What is the Golden Rule investment? ›

Warren Buffet's first rule of investing is to never lose money; his second is to never forget the first rule. This golden rule is key for long-term capital protection and growth.

What is the most popular Golden Rule? ›

The most familiar version of the Golden Rule says, “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.” Moral philosophy has barely taken notice of the golden rule in its own terms despite the rule's prominence in commonsense ethics.

What is the Golden Rule strategy? ›

Treat people the way you want to be treated."

Why do investors use the rule of 72? ›

Bottom Line. The rule of 72 can help you get a rough estimate of how long it will take you to double your money at a fixed annual interest rate. If you have an average rate of return and a current balance, you can project how long your investments will take to double.

What is the rule of 72 in investment strategy? ›

The Rule of 72 is a quick way to get a useful ballpark figure. For investments without a fixed rate of return, you can instead divide 72 by the number of years you hope it will take to double your money. This will give you an estimate of the annual rate of return you'll need to achieve that goal.

What is the basic golden rule? ›

The most familiar version of the Golden Rule says, “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.” Moral philosophy has barely taken notice of the golden rule in its own terms despite the rule's prominence in commonsense ethics.

What is the Golden Rule for 401k? ›

Maximize Employer Match

One of the golden rules of retirement savings is to contribute at least enough money to take full advantage of your employer match. For example, if your employer matches dollar for dollar your first 4% of 401(k) contributions, you should strive to put at least 4% into your 401(k).

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