The Great Stock Market Crash of 1929: Why History Textbooks and the Conventional Wisdom Get It Wrong
By Thomas F. Schwartz
History textbooks tell us that the 1929 stock market crash signaled the beginning of the “Great Depression.” Warning signs of overvaluation and buying on the margin were flashing red lights that a corrective path needed to be taken to avoid Black Monday. But none of this was evident to the leading economists at the time and the stock market crash did not cause the “Great Depression.” Why the market collapsed in October 1929 and did not surpass its pre-Depression value until 1954 continues to lack a consensus among economists. The discipline of economics was still being developed in 1929. Even in hindsight, the evidence is not clear why the market crashed in 1929. The housing market crash in 2007-2008 producing a global credit crisis that reduced housing prices more than during the Great Depression was also unforeseen. Numerous books and even a Hollywood film, The Big Short, attempt to answer the question that Queen Elizabeth asked economists, “Why did nobody notice?” Major economic upheavals are not always evident in real time but only in hindsight—and not even then.
Most stocks were trading at 14 to 19 times earning in September 1929 with profits growing faster than stock prices. Some stocks were indeed overvalued and overpriced as in any market at any time. The Bull Market of the 1920s allowed credit to be extended generously so new investors only needed to purchase stock at twenty-five percent of its value, the other seventy-five percent was borrowed money from a brokerage firm. At the time of the crash, roughly 600,000 margin accounts were held by brokerage firms out of a total national population of 120 million Americans. It has been estimated that three million Americans owned stock of some sort, most of small amounts fully paid. Again, that represented less than 2.5% of the American population. Unlike today with most Americans tied to the stock market directly with retirement accounts or indirectly with managed pension plans, most Americans in the 1929 were not active in the stock market directly or indirectly. The image of vast numbers of investors jumping out of office building windows simply did not occur. In fact, as the business historian, Robert Sobel, noted, “the suicide rate was down during this period.”
At its peak on September 3, 1929, the Dow hit 381.17. The “crash” witnessed losses of 12.8% and 11.7% on Black Monday and Tuesday. The market hit bottom almost two years later at 41.2 marking a decline in value of 89.2%. As one writer described it “In less than 35 months, a dollar invested in stocks shriveled into barely more than a dime.” Surprisingly, no bank failures or major business failures occurred in the immediate aftermath of the crash. While the market crash did not cause the Great Depression, it was a factor in the economic malaise that characterized the period.
Economic downturns hurt the optimistic bullish investors but reward the pessimistic bearish investors. Several individuals who bet against or “shorted” the market became rich or richer. Percy Rockefeller, William Danforth, and Joseph P. Kennedy made millions shorting stocks at this time. They saw opportunity in what most saw as misfortune.
These five takeaways are: (1) "buy and hold" long term investing does not guarantee gains, (2) paying huge premiums for growth can be risky, (3) the next crash may come unexpectedly, (4) a crash may come even if corporate profits are rising, and (5) reaching the bottom may take much longer than most experts think.
There were many causes of the 1929 stock market crash, some of which included overinflated shares, growing bank loans, agricultural overproduction, panic selling, stocks purchased on margin, higher interest rates, and a negative media industry.
The 1929 crash didn't cause the Great Depression outright, with only 10% of Americans invested in the market, but it lowered consumer spending, caused panic that worsened an ongoing recession, reduced corporations' assets and hurt their future prospects, and contributed to a banking crisis.
The crash of 1929 did not occur in a vacuum, nor did it cause the Great Depression. Rather, it was a tipping point where the underlying weaknesses in the economy, specifically in the nation's banking system, came to the fore.
One of the most important lessons to take away from the Depression is that anything can happen, and it's always a good idea to plan ahead. As the unemployment rate keeps rising, you may be worried that you've missed your chance. But it's not too late to set up an emergency fund.
Several individuals who bet against or “shorted” the market became rich or richer. Percy Rockefeller, William Danforth, and Joseph P. Kennedy made millions shorting stocks at this time. They saw opportunity in what most saw as misfortune.
Men and women lost their life savings, feared for their jobs, and worried whether they could pay their bills. Fear and uncertainty reduced purchases of big ticket items, like automobiles, that people bought with credit. Firms – like Ford Motors – saw demand decline, so they slowed production and furloughed workers.
Among the suggested causes of the Great Depression are: the stock market crash of 1929; the collapse of world trade due to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff; government policies; bank failures and panics; and the collapse of the money supply. In this video, Great Depression expert David Wheelock of the St.
Factories were shut down, farms and homes were lost to foreclosure, mills and mines were abandoned, and people went hungry. The resulting lower incomes meant the further inability of the people to spend or to save their way out of the crisis, thus perpetuating the economic slowdown in a seemingly never-ending cycle.
Could the Great Depression happen again? It could, but such an event is unlikely because the Federal Reserve Board is unlikely to sit idly by while the money supply falls by one-third.
The Federal Reserve could have prevented deflation by preventing the collapse of the banking system or by counteracting the collapse with an expansion of the monetary base, but it failed to do so for several reasons. The economic collapse was unforeseen and unprecedented.
Some people believed that abuses by utility holding companies contributed to the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression that followed. Many people blamed the crash on commercial banks that were too eager to put deposits at risk on the stock market.
The crash frightened investors and consumers. Men and women lost their life savings, feared for their jobs, and worried whether they could pay their bills. Fear and uncertainty reduced purchases of big ticket items, like automobiles, that people bought with credit.
The main cause of the Wall Street crash of 1929 was the long period of speculation that preceded it, during which millions of people invested their savings or borrowed money to buy stocks, pushing prices to unsustainable levels.
Great Depression, worldwide economic downturn that began in 1929 and lasted until about 1939. It was the longest and most severe depression ever experienced by the industrialized Western world, sparking fundamental changes in economic institutions, macroeconomic policy, and economic theory.
The country's gross national product declined by over 25 percent within a year, and wages and salaries declined by $4 billion. Unemployment tripled, from 1.5 million at the end of 1929 to 4.5 million by the end of 1930.
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