Rapid evolution within the automotive industry is simultaneously a nursery for new technology and a graveyard for obsolete equipment. Case in point: as we await the arrival of true self-driving cars with advanced systems, other features that were once standard are gradually disappearing.
Such is the case with themanual gearbox, which is becoming a rarityin many markets. And it's not just North America, where automatic transmissions have long dominated. Information fromJATO Dynamicsshows that this type of transmission is losing popularity everywhere.
Two-Pedal Europe
Europe is a great example of this transition.In 2000, 89 percent of all new cars registered were equipped with a manual. In some countries such as Italy, France, Spain, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, and Portugal, that number exceeded 95 percent. Norway and Switzerland were exceptions, where approximately 25 percent of new cars were automatics.
This percentage remained high for a few years until different types ofautomatic transmissions reached the market.In 2017, the overall manual take rate fell to 78 percent of new cars, and it's plunged since then. In 2022 it was down to 34 percent, and through the first half of this year, we're sitting at 32 percent.
There are several reasons for this. Drivers are more aware of the advantages and ease of an automatic. Traffic jams are getting worse in many cities. And the price gap between manuals and automatics is shrinking. The influx of EVs, led globally by Tesla, certainly adds to this. These vehicles don't need transmissions with multiple gears to use power from torque-happy electric motors.
Auto In North America
JATO data shows that in the year 2010, only 6 percent of new light-duty vehicles sold in theUnited States featured a manual transmission.This percentage dropped to 4 percent in 2019, then 2 percent in 2020. For the last two years, the manual gearbox has barely registered in the US market with take rates of 1 percent. And this year it's even less, showing 0.9 percent through the first half of 2023.
Not Dead Yet
On the other hand, cars with manual transmissions remain a valid choice for buyers in emerging economies. Markets such as Latin America or South Africa still see a sizable portion of new vehicles registered with row-your-own gearboxes, accounting for more than 30 percent of sales. Although the price gap between manuals and automatics has decreased dramatically over the past 20 years, it is still an important aspect to consider among low-income consumers.
Will the eventual arrival of affordable electric cars change the situation? Seeing the significant drop in manual-equipped cars in China– where lower-priced EVs are gaining popularity– certainly paints a bleak picture for those who enjoy three-pedal driving.
The author of the article, Felipe Munoz, is an Automotive Industry Specialist at JATO Dynamics.
FAQs
Why have manual transmissions downshifted so much in popularity? Less Demand According to CNBC and Edmunds, auto manufacturers have reported that the consumer demand for annual transmission options in new vehicles has declined. Resources are not being allocated to make new cars with a 5- or 6-speed manual option.
How rare is a manual transmission? ›
Manual sales made up less than a percent of cars sold in the US in 2021, but last year, that number was around 1.7 percent. Not a lot, but not nothing. Many automakers have expanded their manual offerings, too, perhaps most notably Toyota bringing a manual to the Supra for the 2023 model year.
Why are manual cars so rare? ›
Automatics are much more utilitarian cars that get people from point A to point B, says Lauren Fix, the Car Coach. As such, Americans are much more likely to be doing several things at once when they're driving. That's not the case in the rest of the world.
What is manual gearbox problems? ›
Manual Transmissions: Grinding noises or a shaky feeling when shifting gears in a manual transmission is a clear indicator of trouble. This could be due to worn-out synchronisers or damaged gears. Ignoring these symptoms may lead to more significant transmission issues over time.
Why are car companies getting rid of manual transmission? ›
The average manual driver is not always so proficient. In getting the gear right, automatics consume less fuel, save money and emit fewer emissions. These are among the reasons why it's ever harder to buy a new manual-transmission model of any kind in many countries.
Are manual cars dying out? ›
With automatic transmission being the preferred choice — 2020 marked the first time ever they outsold manual — many brands are getting ahead of curve by doing away with manual altogether. Manual cars may still be available in more affordable brands, simply due to being cheaper to manufacture.
Will manuals ever come back? ›
I can't believe I'm writing this, but the manual transmission is making a comeback. The data are admittedly thin, but according to J.D. Power, 1.7 percent of car buyers this year opted for a manual transmission, compared to 0.9 percent in 2021 and 1.2 percent in 2022.
Will manual transmission become obsolete? ›
Do you think manual transmissions will eventually or soon become obsolete? If electrics become the norm, yes, probably since the most efficient designs don't use a transmission in the power train. If driverless automation takes hold and human drivers only operate in very limited capacities, yes.
How much longer will manual transmission last? ›
With proper maintenance, transmissions can last up to 300,000 miles or more. This includes changing the fluid in your transmission system and regular checkups. However, when you don't keep up with routine maintenance, your transmission might have problems at the 100,000-mile mark or even sooner.
Can a manual beat an automatic? ›
It's a common myth that manual cars are faster than automatic ones, but that isn't the case.
Manual transmissions require less servicing to remain functional and don't need the same type of oil as an automatic transmission. Cars with a stick-shift usually last longer than an automatic of the same make and model.
Is the manual transmission dead? ›
According to Autowise, only 34 new vehicle models in 2022 were released with the option of a manual transmission. For younger generations whose Drivers Ed days will coincide with future repercussions of minimized production, learning to drive in automatic cars could become the only feasible option.
How many miles should a manual gearbox last? ›
Your manual gearbox should be able to last up to 120,000 miles on average, however erratic and inefficient driving can definitely reduce this and cause damage.
What damages a manual gearbox? ›
Driving Habits That Can Damage The Gearbox
Some of the most common things that can hurt you are: Keeping the clutch slightly depressed: Try not to drive with your foot on the clutch. Putting even a little pressure on the clutch pedal can cause wear, burning, and other problems with the clutch.
Why are manual cars going extinct? ›
The company attributed growth to some of the new features like cruise control and parking assist that aren't compatible with manual transmissions. USA Today reported that in the U.K., automatic cars outsold manuals for the first time in 2020, citing stats from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.
Will manual transmission ever come back? ›
The Return of The Manual Transmission
This renewed interest, especially from younger drivers, provided a demand for stick shifts that saw manual transmission sales increase to 0.9% of the market in 2021, and 1.2% in 2022.
Why are there no manual transmissions? ›
The disappearance of the manual transmission is primarily due to automatics becoming better. According to U.S. News & World Report , the automatics of today shift faster and quieter, have more gears, and other improvements, closing the performance gap between manual and automatic transmissions.
Why is it so hard to find manual transmission? ›
Automotive history
Once deemed the standard, affordable car nationwide, manual transmission vehicles grew out of demand in recent decades as drivers began to opt for automatic transmission.
