The US economy is extremely fragile right now and could tip into a recession within months, according to a new model (2024)

Looking at the factors that the committee has weighed the most in the past — including employment, consumer spending, measures of income, and factory output — the model has said there is a "better-than-even chance" that a recession will be called sometime in 2024. However, the committee also typically makes the declaration several months after the downturn has started, and the model said that if a recession is declared, it will begin in the last months of 2023.

The model can't predict new factors, and those look ugly

A slightly-better-than-50% chance is not terribly indicative of what will happen. This could be a glass-half-full or a glass-half-empty situation, depending on how strong your economic stomach is.

However, the model does suggest that the economy is teetering on the edge.

Let me start by noting that for all the ominous signs in the past 18 months — most notably the highest inflation in 40 years and a steep and steady rise in interest rates to combat the inflation — we have seen some good indicators giving us hope for a soft landing.

People keep spending gobs of money, especially on experiences this past summer. The labor market has been strong. There has also been a longer-that-typical lag in the impact of higher interest rates thanks to a large cash cushion at the start of the pandemic and many Americans already being locked into lower-rate mortgages.

Now, here is the part where I play "Debbie Downer."

The model also suggests that anything not included in it yet could easily push the scales one way or another, and unfortunately, the list of things that are coming — or things that could come — is ugly.

First, the student-loan payment restart on October 1 is expected to drain about $8 billion a month from consumers. The impact on spending will be enormous.

Gas prices are soaring, with oil prices at their highest level of 2023. There are signs that the cost of gas could ease next year, but that would only be after it gets worse.

Insurance premiums are spiking across healthcare, home insurance, and autos, hitting Americans deeper in their wallets.

And US personal savings have plummeted after surging during the pandemic. According to data from the San Francisco Fed, these excess savings could run out this quarter.

Other factors not out of the woods

And then there are the maybes: the United Auto Workers strike and a potential government shutdown.

As the strike drags on, the impact will be huge, with the loss of wages for auto workers and the potential to drive up inflation and the costs of monthly car payments.

And while the government has avoided a shutdown for now, the ousting of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy feels like a bad omen for the next showdown coming in November. The immediate impact of a shutdown would be volatility in the stock market and millions of government workers going without pay. It'll get more worrisome if it drags on like the most recent shutdown, which lasted 35 days.

If the model is correct, there is already a good chance a recession may hit. Any of these other impending factors could also make it worse.