But even by that new standard — with growth forecasts on Wall Street sinking rapidly — the grim sales prediction from a key Tesla analyst on Wednesday was still shocking. There’ll be zero growth in sales volumes for the electric-vehicle maker this year, Wells Fargo’s Colin Langan said. And in 2025, it’ll be worse yet: volumes will drop.
Shares of the company reacted appropriately, dropping 4.5% to close at a 10-month low of $169.5 on Wednesday. The stock has now fallen 32% this year, missing out on a broader rally that has pushed the S&P 500 Index up 8.3%.
The reason is clear: Tesla’s ability to grow at the furious pace that its expensive valuation promises is no longer a guarantee. The company still trades at a multiple that is significantly higher than other mega-cap high-flyers, yet the pace ofexpansionin its revenue and profit have slowed markedly since last year.
“Right now, the market is voting and telling us that it believes Tesla does not currently deserve that high valuation,” Adam Sarhan, founder and CEO of 50 Park Investments, said in an interview. “For now, the sellers are in control and the market needs a bullish catalyst to get excited about.”
Wall Street has beenringing the alarm bell loudlyon Tesla since the beginning of March, after disappointing numbers from China, data from European countries and a productiondisruptionat its factory near Berlin pointed to first-quarter deliveries missing analysts’ average expectations.
Musk’s response — lowering prices to boost demand — is losing its edge as well.
Wells Fargo’s Langan was the latest to note that the company’s growth in its core markets has moderated, as he downgraded the stock to the equivalent of a sell rating on Wednesday.
The EV-maker is now a “growth company with no growth,” Langan wrote in a note to clients. He highlighted that sales volumes rose only 3% in the second half of 2023 from the first half, while prices fell 5%. Tesla has cut prices in Chinarepeatedlysince late 2022, sparking an international price war.
The troubles for Tesla and EVs more broadly started emerging in mid-October, when Musk’s company first warned about a slowdown in demand. But sentiment worsened further in early January after Tesla said its growth will be“notably lower”this year. Other automakers, EV suppliers and even rental-car companies joined in with similarly cautious comments.
While the weakness in EV demand spells trouble for all car companies, as a pure-play EV company with an eye-wateringly high valuation, Tesla shares have taken a serious hit.
Tesla’s steep slide this year has wiped off more than $245 billion from the company’s market value, and pushed it off the list of the 10 biggest companies on the S&P 500. Ithas also cost Muskhis “world’s richest man” status — he is now placed third, behind Bernard Arnault and Jeff Bezos.
Despite the decline, the stock still trades at around 55 times its forward earnings, compared to the average of about 31 for the Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Price Return Index.
“While an EV and battery technology leader, Tesla screens poorly relative to Mag 7 peers,” Wells Fargo’s Langan said, noting the valuation discrepancy.
The analyst lowered his 2024 profit estimate for the company to $2 a share from $2.40. That compares to analysts’ average expectation of $3.03 a share for the year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“For the longest time, Tesla has been heavily invested in one of the market’s favorite narratives, the electrification of the world’s car fleet,” said David Wagner, portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors. “Now, the market’s favorite narrative is artificial Intelligence and ESG has taken a bit of a back seat, thus the historical valuation premium may no longer be warranted, especially as future revenue growth and margin have slowed.”
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There'll be zero growth in sales volumes for the electric-vehicle maker this year, Wells Fargo's Colin Langan said. And in 2025, it'll be worse yet: volumes will drop. Shares of the company reacted appropriately, dropping 4.5% to close at a 10-month low of $169.5 on Wednesday.
What is the analyst prediction for Tesla stock? ›
Tesla Inc has a consensus price target of $207.58 based on the ratings of 33 analysts. The high is $310 issued by Morgan Stanley on September 5, 2024. The low is $24.86 issued by GLJ Research on September 5, 2024.
Is Tesla going to keep dropping? ›
Tesla (TSLA)
Wall Street consensus also has 2024 Tesla earnings firmly below last year's level. That signals another year of earnings declines for this growth stock. Analysts currently expect Tesla earnings per share of just $2.24 in 2024, according to FactSet. That would be a 28% decline vs. $3.12 in 2023.
What is the stock market prediction for Tesla in 2024? ›
Tesla stock forecast September 2024
The averaged price for the month is expected to be $272.64, ending at $290.52. This indicates a potential increase in stock value, driven by the release of new models and growing demand for electric vehicles.
What is the 12 month forecast for Tesla stock? ›
Based on analyst ratings, Tesla's 12-month average price target is $208.98.
What is the 5 year prediction for Tesla stock? ›
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest predicts Tesla stock will surge 1,350% over the next five years. Elon Musk says it's an 'extremely challenging, but achievable' target. Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Investment Management, delivers a keynote speech at the ARK Innovation Center in St. Petersburg, in February 2024.
Is Tesla a buy sell or hold? ›
Tesla stock has received a consensus rating of buy. The average rating score is and is based on 50 buy ratings, 27 hold ratings, and 15 sell ratings.
What will Tesla stock be worth in 2025? ›
The long-term forecasts for Tesla's stock value in 2025 show a wide range of analyst expectations, between a low of $115 and a high of $1,063 per share. These projections account for various factors, including Tesla's market performance, EBITDA margins, and the expansion of the electric vehicle market.
How much will Tesla stock be worth in 10 years? ›
How Much Will Tesla Stock Be Worth in 10 Years? StockScan projects Tesla's stock could exceed $3,600 by 2035. This long-term outlook considers potential growth in production, technological advancements, and market expansion, though long-term predictions are inherently speculative.
Why is Tesla stock falling so bad? ›
Most of the decline wasn't due to Tesla-specific news. Instead, investors are digesting the latest data on the labor market released on Friday. The U.S. added 142,000 jobs in August, lower than the 160,000 economists expected, according to FactSet. It's another sign the U.S. economy and labor markets are weakening.
The S&P 500 generated an impressive 26.29% total return in 2023, rebounding from an 18.11% setback in 2022. Heading into 2024, investors are optimistic the same macroeconomic tailwinds that fueled the stock market's 2023 rally will propel the S&P 500 to new all-time highs in 2024.
What is the stock price prediction for Tesla in 2026? ›
(The older targets are adjusted for Tesla stock splits.) The $2,000 target was 2026. The $1,000 target was for 2025. Target prices typically have some sort of embedded date in them.
What is the AI predict for Tesla stock? ›
Tesla (TSLA) has an AI Score of 9/10 (Buy) because, according to an overall analysis, it has a probability advantage of +5.88% of beating the market (S&P500) in the next 3 months.
What do analysts say about Tesla stock? ›
Based on analysts offering 12 month price targets for TSLA in the last 3 months. The average price target is $208.3 with a high estimate of $310 and a low estimate of $24.86.
What is the 52 week high and low price for Tesla stock? ›
Peers
| Stock | Price($) | 52 wk high/low |
|---|
| Tesla | 229.61 | 273.93/139.01 |
| General Motors | 46.10 | 50.49/26.30 |
| TE Connectivity | 143.86 | 159.86/115.00 |
| Ford Motor | 10.62 | 14.84/9.52 |
1 more rowApple stock prediction 2030
According to various analyst projections, Apple's stock price is expected to continue its upward trend in the long term. By 2030, the stock price is predicted to reach $510, with some estimates suggesting it could go as high as $1,008.
What is the stock prediction for Tesla in 2025? ›
Tesla stock forecast 2025
Projected earnings in 2025 are $3.39 per share, a slight increase over the 2024 forecast. The revenue forecast for 2025 is $115.7 billion, a 17.8% increase from the 2024 projection.
What is a 12 month price target? ›
A price target represents an analyst's estimate of the future price of a stock or other security. For stock analysts, the timeline is generally 12 to 18 months, but technical traders also use price targets.
What is the fair price of Tesla stock? ›
As of 2024-09-18, the Fair Value of Tesla Inc (TSLA) is 97.41 USD. This value is based on the Peter Lynch's Fair Value formula. With the current market price of 227.87 USD, the upside of Tesla Inc is -57.2%.
What is the net income forecast for Tesla? ›
Analysis. Tesla's net income forecast is expected to average 15.455 billion over the next 5 fiscal years.
