Global Stock Markets
*Weighted equity index including both developing and emerging markets. Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics.
| Major Market Indexes | Price | 30-Day | YTD | 52-Week | 52-Week |
| Aug-23 | % Chg. | % Chg. | High | Low |
| S&P 500 | 5,605 | 0.9 | 17.5 | 5,667 | 4,117 |
| DAX | 18,579 | 0.1 | 10.9 | 18,869 | 14,687 |
| FTSE 100 | 8,315 | 1.8 | 7.5 | 8,446 | 7,291 |
| Nikkei | 38,364 | -3.1 | 14.6 | 42,224 | 30,527 |
| MSCI AC World Index* | 823 | 0.8 | 13.2 | 831 | 629 |
Commodity Price Outlook
F: Forecast by TD Economics, August 2024; Forecast are period averages; E: Estimate. Source: Bloomberg, USDA (Haver).
| Commodity | Price | 52-Week | 52-Week | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Aug-23 | High | Low | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F |
| Crude Oil (WTI, $US/bbl) | 74 | 94 | 69 | 76 | 74 | 82 | 78 | 77 | 80 | 82 | 80 | 78 | 78 | 78 | 76 |
| Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) | 1.93 | 13.20 | 1.24 | 2.66 | 2.16 | 2.59 | 2.75 | 2.23 | 2.30 | 2.60 | 2.80 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| Gold ($US/troy oz.) | 2497 | 2514 | 1820 | 1889 | 1977 | 1928 | 1977 | 2072 | 2325 | 2350 | 2350 | 2350 | 2325 | 2275 | 2175 |
| Silver (US$/troy oz.) | 29.24 | 32.10 | 20.97 | 22.56 | 24.19 | 23.58 | 23.27 | 23.37 | 29.00 | 31.00 | 31.00 | 31.00 | 30.00 | 29.00 | 28.00 |
| Copper (cents/lb) | 409 | 490 | 355 | 405 | 384 | 379 | 371 | 383 | 440 | 445 | 450 | 445 | 435 | 435 | 430 |
| Nickel (US$/lb) | 7.53 | 9.80 | 7.15 | 11.81 | 10.13 | 9.23 | 7.81 | 7.52 | 8.36 | 8.15 | 7.95 | 7.70 | 7.70 | 7.70 | 7.70 |
| Aluminum (Cents/lb) | 113 | 126 | 96 | 109 | 103 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 110 | 108 | 110 | 112 | 112 | 115 | 115 |
| Wheat ($US/bu) | 8.08 | 10.09 | 7.11 | 7.32 | 6.50 | 5.76 | 5.89 | 5.87 | 6.10 | 6.30 | 6.20 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
U.S. Economic Outlook
[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
F: Forecast by TD Economics, June 2024. * Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
| Economic Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Annual Average | 4th Qtr/4th Qtr |
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | 23 | 24F | 25F | 23 | 24F | 25F |
| Real GDP | 2.2 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Consumer Expenditure | 3.8 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Durable Goods | 14.0 | -0.3 | 6.7 | 3.2 | -4.1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 5.8 | 0.2 | 2.6 |
| Business Investment | 5.7 | 7.4 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 3.9 |
| Non-Res. Structures | 30.3 | 16.1 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 0.4 | -2.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 13.2 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 16.9 | 1.8 | 3.5 |
| Equipment & IPP* | -0.9 | 5.1 | -1.2 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Residential Investment | -5.3 | -2.2 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 15.4 | -5.1 | -3.3 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 6.7 | -10.6 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 6.1 |
| Govt. Expenditure | 4.8 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| Final Domestic Demand | 3.8 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Exports | 6.8 | -9.3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 1.2 | -0.3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 3.7 |
| Imports | 1.3 | -7.6 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | -1.7 | 3.9 | 3.3 | -0.1 | 4.8 | 3.1 |
| Change in Private | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Inventories | 27.2 | 14.9 | 77.8 | 54.9 | 30.9 | 62.4 | 68.5 | 69.6 | 64.0 | 58.4 | 57.1 | 55.8 | 43.7 | 57.9 | 58.8 | -- | -- | -- |
| Final Sales | 4.6 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| International Current | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Account Balance ($Bn) | -851 | -860 | -786 | -779 | -841 | -1002 | -1061 | -1073 | -1080 | -1073 | -1062 | -1049 | -819 | -995 | -1066 | -- | -- | -- |
| % of GDP | -3.2 | -3.2 | -2.8 | -2.8 | -3.0 | -3.5 | -3.7 | -3.7 | -3.7 | -3.6 | -3.5 | -3.4 | -3.0 | -3.5 | -3.6 | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax Corporate Profits | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Including IVA&CCA | -9.9 | 0.9 | 14.4 | 17.3 | -2.4 | -2.0 | -3.4 | 1.7 | -1.1 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3.4 | -0.2 | 5.1 | -1.5 | 0.6 |
| % of GDP | 11.8 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 12.2 | 12.0 | 11.8 | 11.6 | 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 11.9 | 11.7 | 11.2 | -- | -- | -- |
| GDP Deflator (y/y) | 5.3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| Nominal GDP | 6.3 | 3.8 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Labor Force | 3.9 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | -0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Employment | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Change in Empl. ('000s) | 899 | 753 | 667 | 617 | 772 | 698 | 551 | 414 | 356 | 360 | 361 | 362 | 3534 | 2659 | 1658 | 2936 | 2435 | 1439 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Disp. Income | 15.5 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 5.0 |
| Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 4.3 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 5.7 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 |
| Core CPI (y/y) | 5.5 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 2.2 |
| Core PCE Price Index (y/y) | 4.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 |
| Housing Starts (mns) | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| Real Output per Hour** (y/y) | -0.5 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
Economic Indicators: G7 & Europe
F: Forecast by TD Economics, June 2024. * Share of 2021 world gross domestic product (GDP) at PPP. Source: National Statistics Agencies, TD Economics.
| | 2022 | 2023 | 2024F | 2025F |
| Real GDP (Annual Per Cent Change) |
| G7 (42.4%)* | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| U.S. | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Japan | 1.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Euro Area | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Germany | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.3 |
| France | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Italy | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| United Kingdom | 4.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Canada | 3.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Consumer Price Index (Annual Per Cent Change) |
| G7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| U.S. | 8.0 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 2.2 |
| Japan | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Euro Area | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Germany | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| France | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| Italy | 8.7 | 5.9 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| United Kingdom | 9.1 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Canada | 6.8 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Unemployment Rate (Per Cent Annual Averages) |
| U.S. | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| Japan | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Euro Area | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.5 |
| Germany | 5.3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 5.7 |
| France | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.2 |
| Italy | 8.1 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| United Kingdom | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.7 |
| Canada | 5.3 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.6 |
Global Economic Outlook
[Annual Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
F: Forecast by TD Economics, June 2024. * Share of 2021 world gross domestic product (GDP) at PPP. Forecast for India refers to fiscal year. Source: International Monetary Fund, TD Economics.
| 2022 Share* | Forecast |
| Real GDP | (%) | 2023 | 2024F | 2025F |
| World | 100.0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| North America | 18.9 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| United States | 15.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Canada | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Mexico | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| European Union (EU-27) | 14.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Euro Area (EU-20) | 12.0 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Germany | 3.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.3 |
| France | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Italy | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Other EU Members | 2.8 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| Asia | 45.0 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| Japan | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Asian NIC's | 3.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Hong Kong | 0.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.5 |
| Korea | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Singapore | 0.4 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Taiwan | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| Russia | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| Australia & New Zealand | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Emerging Asia | 32.8 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.9 |
| ASEAN-5 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| China | 18.4 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.3 |
| India** | 7.3 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Central/South America | 5.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| Brazil | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| Other Emerging Markets | 12.7 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| Other Advanced | 3.4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| United Kingdom | 2.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
Long-Term U.S. Economic Outlook
[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
F: Forecast by TD Economics, June 2024. * Intellectual property products. ** Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
| Economic Indicator | Annual Average | Fourth Quarter / Fourth Quarter |
| 23 | 24F | 25F | 26F | 27F | 28F | 29F | 23 | 24F | 25F | 26F | 27F | 28F | 29F |
| Real GDP | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Consumer Expenditure | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Durable Goods | 4.2 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Business Investment | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| Non-Res. Structures | 13.2 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 16.9 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Equipment & IPP* | 2.2 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Residential Investment | -10.6 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Govt. Expenditure | 4.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Final Domestic Demand | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Exports | 2.6 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| Imports | -1.7 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.1 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Change in Private | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Inventories | 43.7 | 57.9 | 58.8 | 54.6 | 54.6 | 54.6 | 54.5 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Final Sales | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| International Current | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Account Balance ($Bn) | -819 | -995 | -1066 | -1016 | -986 | -963 | -918 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| % of GDP | -3.0 | -3.5 | -3.6 | -3.2 | -3.0 | -2.8 | -2.6 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Pre-Tax Corporate Profits | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Including IVA&CCA | 1.5 | 3.4 | -0.2 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 5.1 | -1.5 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| % of GDP | 11.9 | 11.7 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.1 | 11.4 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| GDP Deflator (y/y) | 3.6 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Nominal GDP | 6.3 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| Labor Force | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Employment | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Change in Empl. ('000s) | 3,534 | 2,659 | 1,658 | 1,206 | 999 | 960 | 960 | 2,936 | 2,435 | 1,439 | 1,062 | 960 | 960 | 960 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Personal Disp. Income | 8.0 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 |
| Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 4.5 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 7.7 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 4.1 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Core CPI (y/y) | 4.8 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Core PCE Price Index (y/y) | 4.1 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Housing Starts (mns) | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.45 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Real Output per Hour** (y/y) | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
Long-Term Canadian Economic Outlook
[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
FAQs
On the basis of these inflation forecasts, average consumer price inflation should be 3.2% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025, compared to 4.06% in 2023 and 9.59% in 2022.
What is the forecast for the US economy? ›
Amid anticipated below-trend growth in 2025, core inflation falling to near the Fed's 2% target, and an unemployment rate rising moderately above current levels, we expect the Fed's rate target to end 2025 in a range of 3.25%–3.5%. That would be 2 percentage points below its current 5.25%–5.5% target range.
What is the real GDP forecast for the United States? ›
Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate), Second Quarter 2024. Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024, according to the "second" estimate. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.
What is the dollar vs CAD forecast for 2024? ›
Partly because of this, RBC expects the US dollar to strengthen relative to its Canadian counterpart in the months ahead. “We still see a higher USD/CAD in the medium-term, with our end-2024 and 2025 peak forecasts unchanged at 1.40 and 1.42, respectively.
What will $1 be worth in 30 years? ›
Real growth rates
| One time saving $1 (taxable account) | Every year saving $1 (taxable account) |
|---|
| After # years | Nominal value | Nominal value |
|---|
| 30 | 7.07 | 93.87 |
| 35 | 10.04 | 137.72 |
| 40 | 14.31 | 200.13 |
7 more rowsNext Release
September 2024 CPI data are scheduled to be released on October 10, 2024, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time.
What is the latest economic outlook for the US? ›
We foresee real GDP growth averaging 2.5% in 2024 and easing to 1.7% in 2025. Unmistakable labor market cooling: The soft July jobs report points to a deterioration in labor market conditions, in line with several other labor market indicators.
Is the US in recession now? ›
"Even though today we're not in a recession, the trajectory of the U.S. is one of a slowdown," Daco noted. "Whether payrolls, the unemployment rate, layoffs, they all point to a slowdown in employment."
Is the US economy slowing down in 2024? ›
U.S. economic growth slowed dramatically in the first quarter of 2024, with inflation-weary consumers tightening their belts and spending less, the government reported on Thursday.
Is there a risk of recession in 2024? ›
In light of recent economic developments, J.P. Morgan Research has raised the probability of a U.S. and global recession starting before end-2024 to 35%. The probability of a recession happening by the end of 2025 remains unchanged at 45%.
The state of the U.S. economy is strong despite inflation remaining elevated. The economy is expanding at a crisp pace, the labor market is loosening slightly and inflation is slowing from its peak.
What is the US GDP right now? ›
US GDP is at a current level of 28.65T, up from 28.27T last quarter and up from 27.06T one year ago. This is a change of 1.36% from last quarter and 5.87% from one year ago. US GDP or Gross Domestic Product is the total value of goods produced and services provided in the US.
Should I buy USD now or wait? ›
As a general rule, there's no definite time as to when you should buy US Dollars before your trip. If you're a constant international traveller, you can get the best rate if you shop around and compare options.
What is the USD prediction for 2025? ›
USD to INR Forecast 2025-2030: While big banks such as ING forecast USD to INR to keep the 84.00 level in 2025, some AI-based websites are pointing towards a USD to INR strength to 90 in the next years and 100 by 2030. AI Predicts +21.46% rate increase by 2030.
What is the USD prediction for 2024? ›
We predict only mild strength in the USD in early 2024 because we expect a mild US recession and only a modest increase in volatility and credit spreads, and mild weakness in equity markets. Notwithstanding some expected USD strength in early 2024, the next major move in the USD will be down in our view.
What is the expected inflation rate for the next 5 years? ›
Basic Info. US Expected Change in Inflation Rates: Next 5 Years is at 3.10%, compared to 3.00% last month and 2.80% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 3.19%.
What is the latest inflation rate for the US? ›
Key takeaways
- The current annual inflation rate is 2.9%, the lowest since March 2021.
- Prices are still 20.9% more expensive since the pandemic-induced recession began in February 2020, with just 6% of the nearly 400 items the Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks cheaper today.
The annual inflation rate in the US slowed for a fifth consecutive month to 2.5% in August 2024, the lowest since February 2021, from 2.9% in July, and below forecasts of 2.6%.
What is the CPI forecast for August 2024? ›
August 2024 CPI Report: Inflation cooled, edging closer to the Fed's target. The August 2024 CPI report moderated to 2.5% year-over-year, cementing the likelihood that the Fed will begin cutting rates next week.
