We've blown past the point of no return: humanity has officially failed to keep global warming within the crucial 1.5°C limit. That's the stark warning from UN Secretary-General António Guterres, and it demands immediate, drastic action. What does this mean for our planet, and what can we possibly do now?
In an exclusive interview granted just before the pivotal COP30 climate summit next month, Guterres didn't mince words. He acknowledged the grim reality: we are now “inevitably” going to overshoot the 1.5°C target set in the Paris Agreement, unleashing “devastating consequences” across the globe. He implored world leaders gathering in Belém, Brazil, to face the truth: every delay in cutting emissions only intensifies the risk of triggering irreversible “tipping points” in vital ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest, the Arctic, and our oceans.
“Let’s recognize our failure,” Guterres stated bluntly in his interview with The Guardian and Amazon-based news organization Sumaúma. “The truth is that we have failed to avoid an overshooting above 1.5°C in the next few years. And that going above 1.5°C has devastating consequences...We don’t want to see the Amazon as a savannah. But that is a real risk if we don’t change course and if we don’t make a dramatic decrease of emissions as soon as possible.”
Think of these tipping points as the point of no return for certain ecosystems. For example, if the Amazon rainforest is degraded enough, it could transform into a savannah, releasing vast amounts of stored carbon into the atmosphere and fundamentally altering weather patterns worldwide.
The past decade has been the hottest ever recorded, a clear signal of the escalating crisis. Despite growing scientific consensus and increasingly dire warnings about the speed of temperature increases driven by burning fossil fuels (oil, coal, and gas), Guterres lamented that government commitments simply aren't enough.
And this is the part most people miss: fewer than a third of the world’s nations (just 62 out of 197, according to Climate Watch Data) have submitted their updated climate action plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. The US, under the Trump administration, abandoned the process, while Europe has made promises it has yet to fully deliver on. China, the world's biggest emitter, faces criticism for setting insufficiently ambitious targets.
Guterres emphasized that this lack of ambition in NDCs makes a temporary breach of the 1.5°C target unavoidable. “From those [NDCs] received until now, there is an expectation of a reduction of emissions of 10%. We would need 60% [to stay within 1.5C]. So overshooting is now inevitable.”
But here's where it gets controversial: Guterres hasn't completely abandoned hope. He believes it might still be possible to temporarily exceed the 1.5°C limit and then bring temperatures back down by the end of the century. However, this would require a radical shift in direction, starting at COP30, and a commitment to aggressive climate action that extends far beyond the summit. This idea of "overshoot and return" is hotly debated in the scientific community, with some arguing it relies on unproven technologies and carries enormous risks. What do you think? Is it a realistic goal, or wishful thinking?
Guterres also called for a rebalancing of power at COP meetings, advocating for greater representation and influence for civil society groups, particularly Indigenous communities, over corporate lobbyists.
“We all know what the lobbyists want,” he said. “It’s to increase their profits, with the price being paid by humankind.”
He argued that transitioning away from fossil fuels is not just an environmental imperative but also a matter of economic self-interest. The age of fossil fuels is ending, he asserted, driven by the burgeoning renewables revolution. “We are seeing a renewables revolution and the transition will inevitably accelerate and there will be no way in which humankind will be able to use all the oil and gas already discovered.”
When asked if he had discussed the controversial issue of Brazil's recent approval of oil exploration near the mouth of the Amazon River with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Guterres replied, “Not yet. I’ll take advantage of the Cop [to do this].” This highlights the complex challenges of balancing economic development with environmental protection, especially for countries like Brazil with significant natural resources.
One of Brazil's key initiatives at COP30 will be the Tropical Forests Forever Facility, aiming to raise $125 billion to protect standing forests. Importantly, 20% of any funds disbursed will be directed to Indigenous communities, who are recognized as the most effective stewards of biodiversity and carbon sinks.
Guterres repeatedly emphasized the critical role of Indigenous voices at COP30. The UN highlighted that this interview marked the first time the Secretary-General had granted an exclusive interview to a journalist from an Indigenous community: Wajã Xipai, a Sumaúma reporter from the Xipai people, accompanied by The Guardian.
“It is fundamental to invest in those who are the best guardians of nature. And the best guardians of nature are precisely the Indigenous communities,” Guterres stated. He added that world leaders should learn from Indigenous peoples about how to achieve a harmonious relationship with nature.
Despite increasing criticisms of the COP system of global environmental governance, Guterres defended its crucial role.
“The alternative is a free-for-all,” he warned. “And we know what free for all means...there will always be a group of rich people and rich companies that will be able to protect themselves as the planet is being progressively destroyed.”
As he approaches the end of his tenure as Secretary-General next year, Guterres reflected on his nine years in the role, expressing regret that he didn't prioritize climate and nature earlier. He reaffirmed his unwavering commitment: “I will never give up on my commitment to climate action, on my commitment to biodiversity, on my commitment to the protection of nature…to preserve the most precious possession that we have, which is our mother nature.”
So, what's your take on this? Do you think humanity can still avert the worst consequences of climate change? What actions should individuals, governments, and corporations take now to make a difference? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
