also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
from the interest-rate specialists at www.FedPrimeRate.comSM
Monday, June 17, 2024
Odds Now At 90% (VERY LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain at 8.50% After The July 31, 2024 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting
Prime Rate Prediction |
Prime Rate Forecast
As of right now, our odds are at 90% (very likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at 5.25% - 5.50% at the July 31ST, 2024 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) holding at 8.50%.
======= Futures Market Has No Idea Where Where Short-Term Rates Will Be at The End of This Year
Current Interest-Rate-Futures Market Predictions for the December 18, 2024 FOMC Policy Meeting |
Nice Right now, a 44% majority believe that the Fed will have cut rates by 50 basis points (0.50 percentage point) by the end of 2024. If they're right, that would put the U.S. Prime Rate at an even 8.00% at year-end.
- From the May Jobs Report: Year-on-year (Y-O-Y),Average Weekly Earnings advanced by +4.08%, while the reading on Average Weekly Earnings was +3.78%
- The U-3 (official) jobless rate edged higher, from 3.9% during April, to 4.0% during May, 2024.
- Y-O-Y, the Core CPI for May, 2024 came in at +3.42%.
Stay tuned...
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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.
=======
NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)
=======
Current Odds
- Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 8.50% after the July 31ST, 2024 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (very likely.)
=========
Labels: banking, banks, disinflation, fed_funds_target_rate, Fed_Prime_Rate, housing, Housing_Inflation, inflation, money, odds, prime_rate, prime_rate_forecast, prime_rate_prediction
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posted by Steve Brown | 6/17/2024 01:15:00 AM | 0 comments
Wednesday, June 12, 2024
Fourth FOMC Meeting of 2024 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Holds at 8.50%
United States Prime Rate |
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its fourth monetary policy meeting of 2024 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% - 5.50%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 8.50%.
NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)
Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):
"...Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace.Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.
In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller..."
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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.
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Labels: banking, banks, Current_Prime_Rate, fed_funds_target_rate, Fed_Prime_Rate, federal_reserve, fomc, fomc_meeting, Interest_Rates, Prime Rate, Prime_Rate_Today, United_States_Prime_ Rate
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posted by Steve Brown | 6/12/2024 05:59:00 PM | 0 comments
Tuesday, May 07, 2024
Odds Now At 90% (VERY LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain at 8.50% After The June 12, 2024 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting
Prime Rate Prediction |
Prime Rate Forecast
As of right now, our odds are at 90% (very likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at 5.25% - 5.50% at the June 12TH, 2024 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) holding at 8.50%.
======= Jobs + Wages Weakening: Exactly What The Fed Wants
- The number of jobless people per job opening crept up during March, 2024 (graphic.) A lagging indicator, but nevertheless: further proof that the Fed's mission of killing jobs, and keeping short-term interest rates elevated, to tame inflation, is working.
- From the April Jobs Report: A rare negative month-on-month reading for Average Weekly Earnings (-0.09%.)
Stay tuned...
=======
The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.
=======
NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)
=======
Current Odds
- Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 8.50% after the June 12TH, 2024 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (very likely.)
=========
Labels: banking, banks, disinflation, fed_funds_target_rate, Fed_Prime_Rate, housing, Housing_Inflation, inflation, money, odds, prime_rate, prime_rate_forecast, prime_rate_prediction
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posted by Steve Brown | 5/07/2024 10:28:00 AM | 0 comments
Wednesday, May 01, 2024
Third FOMC Meeting of 2024 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Continues at 8.50%
United States Prime Rate |
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its third monetary policy meeting of 2024 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% - 5.50%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 8.50%.
NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)
Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):
"...Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee's 2% inflation objective.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and
inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4% to 5-1/2%. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that
inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agencymortgage‑backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective.In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions,
inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller..."
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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.
==========
==========
Labels: banking, banks, Current_Prime_Rate, fed_funds_target_rate, Fed_Prime_Rate, federal_reserve, fomc, fomc_meeting, Interest_Rates, Prime Rate, Prime_Rate_Today, United_States_Prime_ Rate
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posted by Steve Brown | 5/01/2024 04:00:00 PM | 0 comments
Monday, April 08, 2024
Odds Now At 95% (VERY LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain at 8.50% After The May 1, 2024 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting
Prime Rate Prediction |
Prime Rate Forecast
As of right now, our odds are at 95% (very likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at 5.25% - 5.50% at theMay 1ST, 2024 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) holding at 8.50%.
======= Latest on Disinflation
- Year-on-year (Y-O-Y), the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) slipped from 3.86% during January, to 3.75% during February, 2024. Good disinflation news...but not great.
- Y-O-Y, The Core PCE Price Index moved sideways, remaining at 2.8% from January to February of this year. With food + energy added to the mix, the PCE Price Index edged in the wrong direction: up, from 2.4% to 2.5%.
Wages
- Y-O-Y, average hourly +average weekly earnings advanced in sync, both by 4.14%, according to last Friday's Employment Situation Report for March, 2024.
=======
And so, based on these and other economic data, the Fed is likely to do nothing with the benchmark fed funds target rate onMay 1ST, 2024, which would mean Prime staying where it is until the following meeting and decision on short-term rates (June 12, 2024.)
Stay tuned...
=======
The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.
=======
NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)
=======
Current Odds
- Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 8.50% after the May 1ST, 2024 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 95% (very likely.)
=========
Labels: banking, banks, disinflation, fed_funds_target_rate, Fed_Prime_Rate, housing, Housing_Inflation, inflation, money, odds, prime_rate, prime_rate_forecast, prime_rate_prediction
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posted by Steve Brown | 4/08/2024 10:08:00 PM | 0 comments
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Second FOMC Meeting of 2024 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Holds at 8.50%
United States Prime Rate |
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its second monetary policy meeting of 2024 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% - 5.50%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 8.50%. NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)
Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):
"...Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace.Job gains have remained strong, and theunemployment rate has remained low.Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and
inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency
mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of
monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.
.."
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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.
========== ==========
Labels: banking, banks, Current_Prime_Rate, Economy, fed_funds_target_rate, Fed_Prime_Rate, Fed_Video, federal_reserve, fomc, fomc_meeting, Interest_Rates, Prime_Rate_Today, rates
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posted by Steve Brown | 3/20/2024 10:45:00 PM | 0 comments
Thursday, February 08, 2024
Odds Now At 90% (Very Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue At 8.50% After The March 20, 2024 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting
Prime Rate Prediction |
Prime Rate Forecast
As of right now, our odds are at 90% (very likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at 5.25% - 5.50% at theMarch 20TH, 2024 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) holding at 8.50%.
=======
The U.S. economy remains strong, despite the relatively high cost of borrowing. Both short- and long-term interest rates are restrictive right now, and have been for some time. This interest-rate environment should have helped to cool the American consumer down, but so far, that hasn't happened.
The economy grew at a healthy 3.3% during Q4, 2023, while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% last month, with an estimated 353,000 non-farm jobs added to the American workforce.
So, at this point, it's unlikely the Fed will lower the benchmark fed funds target rate onMarch 20TH, as many were hoping might happen.
Stay tuned...
=======
The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.
=======
NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)
=======
Current Odds
- Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 8.50% after the March 20TH, 2024 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (very likely.)
=========
Labels: banking, banks, disinflation, fed_funds_target_rate, Fed_Prime_Rate, housing, Housing_Inflation, inflation, money, odds, prime_rate, prime_rate_forecast, prime_rate_prediction
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posted by Steve Brown | 2/08/2024 04:20:00 AM | 0 comments
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
First FOMC Meeting of 2024 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Continues at 8.50%
United States Prime Rate |
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its first monetary policy meeting of 2024 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% - 5.50%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 8.50%. NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)
Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):
"...Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace.Job gains have moderated since early last year but remain strong, and theunemployment rate has remained low.Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and
inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency
mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of
monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.
.."
==========
The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.
==========
==========
Labels: banking, banks, Current_Prime_Rate, Economy, fed_funds_target_rate, Fed_Prime_Rate, Fed_Video, federal_reserve, fomc, fomc_meeting, Interest_Rates, Prime_Rate_Today, rates
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posted by Steve Brown | 1/31/2024 08:01:00 PM | 0 comments
Wednesday, January 03, 2024
Odds Now At 90% (Very Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue At 8.50% After The January 31, 2024 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting
Prime Rate Prediction |
Prime Rate Forecast
As of right now, our odds are at 90% (very likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at 5.25% - 5.50% at the January 31ST, 2024 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) remaining at 8.50%.
=======
Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y), the Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, fell from 3.4% during October 2023, to 3.2% during November, 2023. It was 4.8% back in November of 2022.
=======
Right now, we have odds at 65% (on the fence) the Fed will cut short-term rates, including the U.S. Prime Rate, by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) at the March 20, 2024 FOMC meeting.
Stay tuned...
=======
The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.
=======
NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)
=======
Current Odds
- Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 8.50% after the January 31ST, 2024 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (very likely.)
=========
Labels: banking, banks, disinflation, fed_funds_target_rate, Fed_Prime_Rate, housing, Housing_Inflation, inflation, money, odds, prime_rate, prime_rate_forecast, prime_rate_prediction
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posted by Steve Brown | 1/03/2024 08:49:00 AM | 0 comments
Monday, January 01, 2024
FOMC Meeting Schedule for 2024
Here's the 2024 meeting schedule for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC.)
Why is this schedule important to you? Because it's at these monetary policy meetings that the FOMC votes on whether to raise, lower or make no changes to the target range for Fed Funds Target Rate, and when the Fed Funds Target Rate changes, the United States Prime Rate (also known as the Fed Prime Rate) will also change (how the United States Prime Rate works):
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- January 31, 2024
- March 20, 2024
- May 1, 2024
- June 12, 2024
- July 31, 2024
- September 18, 2024
- November 7, 2024
- December18, 2024
===============================
Labels: Fed_Chair_Conference, fed_funds_target_rate, federal_reserve, fomc, fomc_meeting, fomc_meeting_schedule, prime_rate
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posted by Steve Brown | 1/01/2024 05:03:00 AM | 0 comments