USD to PHP Forecast for 2024, 2025-2026 and Beyond | LiteFinance (2024)

As the global economy marches into 2024, the interplay between the United States Dollar (USD) and the Philippine Peso (PHP) remains a keen interest for investors and traders. This article aims to provide an analytical perspective on the future fluctuations and trends of the USD/PHP exchange rate. By integrating insights from financial experts, historical data, and the prevailing geopolitical and economic landscapes, we will offer a nuanced outlook for 2024, 2025, and 2026, extending our gaze into the broader trading horizon.

Highlights and Key Points: USD to PHP Forecast 2024-2030

• The year 2024 is projected to start with a slight increase in the exchange rate, eventually climbing to around ₱ 59.54 - ₱ 61.96 by the year's end.
• In 2025, US Dollar will continue strengthening against Philippine Peso, potentially reaching ₱ 64.02.
• Forecasts differ for 2026: some analysts predict further growth to ₱ 65.62, the others foresee a gradual decrease to ₱ 61.62.
• The prediction up to 2030 is controversial — the continuation of downtrend, but due to rapid growth in 2028-2029 the asset will reach ₱ 65.70 in 2030.

Analysts’ USD PHP Projections for 2024

Let's take a look at USDPHP's expert forecasts for 2024.

LongForecast

Price range in 2024: ₱ 57.17 - ₱ 61.96 (as for July 24, 2024)

According to LongForecast, the USDPHP exchange rate will be growing up until the end of 2024, with small fluctuations along the way. The opening price in August will be ₱ 58.48, trades will close in December on ₱ 61.04. The volatility of the asset will be decreasing towards the year-end, indicating future perspectives for the asset.

CoinCodex

Price range in 2024: ₱ 58.14 - ₱ 60.03 (as for July 24, 2024)

In 2025, according to the forecast provided by CoinCodex, USDPHP rate will face moderate growth. From August to November the asset will be trading flat with a small volatility, to rise up to ₱ 60.03 in December, thus updating its all-time high. Trading range for the rest of 2024 promises to be quite narrow — from ₱ 58.14 to ₱ 60.03.

WalletInvestor

Price range in 2024: ₱ 58.446 - ₱ 59.541 (as for July 24, 2024)

WalletInvestor indicates steady growth of USDPHP exchange rate during the rest of the year. Trades will open at ₱ 58.453 in August and close at ₱ 59.538 in December. During the 5 month period a small volatility is noticed, a few insignificant corrections are possible. But the overall outlook is definitely bullish.

USDPHP Technical Analysis

When conducting a technical analysis of the USDPHP pair, it is essential to utilize multiple time frames and tools to provide an accurate market overview. Both short-term (hourly, 4-hour) and long-term (daily, weekly) time frames can help determine trends and potential entry and exit points. Such technical analysis tools like moving averages help identify trends. Support and resistance levels allow you to pinpoint key price levels. The RSI and MACD indicators are used to assess trend strength and potential reversals. "Head and shoulders," "Double top/bottom," and candlestick patterns such as "Doji" and "Hammer" can forecast price movements, showing changes in market sentiment.

USDPHP Analysis For Next Three Months

The USDPHP pair is trading in a moderate uptrend on the daily time frame. The position of moving averages confirms this, as the SMA50 is above the SMA200.

If the uptrend continues, the nearest target will be around 59.00, the resistance level set by the previous highs. This scenario will be confirmed if the price remains above 57.90, which is the key support and SMA50 level.

If a correction emerges, the rate may decline to the support level of 57.00, which is the SMA200. Once the RSI indicator drops below 40, the asset may fall to 56.35, the next important support level.

To reverse the uptrend, the price should drop below 56.35. The MACD crossing the zero line from the upside will signal an increase in bearish sentiment. In this case, the price may fall further to 55.25.

Long-Term USDPHP Technical Analysis for 2024

It is necessary to analyze key trends and levels that can affect the quotes to conduct a long-term technical analysis of USDPHP for 2024.

On the monthly chart, the 50-period SMA is below the 200-period SMA, indicating short-term bearish sentiment.

The key resistance level for 2024 is 59. The support levels are at 54.00 and 55.00. The price has repeatedly bounced from these levels before.

The RSI at 64.92 indicates strong bullish momentum. However, it has not reached the critical overbought level of 70 yet, suggesting that the price may continue to grow. Both MACD lines are close to each other in the positive zone above 1.12, confirming the upward movement. The uptrend may continue if the price continues to trade smoothly.

The USDPHP pair may continue to rise to 61.00 and higher if the current economic conditions persist and the US dollar strengthens. Bullish RSI and MACD indicators confirm this scenario.

If global or local economic conditions change, the price may decline to the support level of 56.00. In case of a strong bearish impulse, quotes may fall to 54.00. Monitor the RSI and MACD indicators, as they help assess the strength of the correction.

Long-Term Trading Plan for USDPHP

Let us create a trading plan based on conducted technical analysis.

Targets for 3 months

1. Target zone: 56.00.
   • Open long trades if the price breaks through 55.00.
   • Stop-loss: 54.50.
   • Take-profit: 56.00.
2. Target zone: 54.00 (if a correction emerges).
   • Open short trades if the price falls below 55.00.
   • Stop-loss: 55.50.
   • Take-profit: 54.00.

Targets for 12 months

1. Target zone: 58.00.
   • Open long trades if the price breaks through 56.00.
   • Stop-loss: 55.50.
   • Take-profit: 58.00.
2. Target zone: 52.50 (if a strong correction emerges).
   • Open short trades if the price falls below 54.00.
   • Stop-loss: 54.50.
   • Take-profit: 52.50.

It is crucial to monitor RSI values. If the indicator exceeds 70 and drops below 30, it points to an overbought or oversold condition in the market, respectively. Pay attention to the crossing of the MACD lines and their position regarding the zero line to confirm the trend.

Trading signals:

• Bullish signal: The price breaks through the resistance of 55.00 with RSI and MACD confirmation.
• Bearish signal: The price falls below the support of 54.00 with RSI and MACD confirmation.

When trading the USDPHP pair, monitor macroeconomic indicators and global events that may affect exchange rates. Adjust your trading plan regularly based on the market situation.

USD to PHP Forecast for 2025

Let's take a look at USDPHP's expert forecasts for 2025.

LongForecast

Price range in 2025: ₱ 59.38 - ₱ 64.02 (as for July 24, 2024)

The 2025 forecast provided by LongForecast promises the continuation of bullish trend — despite some fluctuations and corrections, the USDPHP rate will grow, estimating ₱ 64.02 on its maximum and ₱ 61.87 at the year-end.

CoinCodex

Price range in 2025: ₱ 58.14 - ₱ 62.81 (as for July 24, 2024)

The experts at CoinCodex foresee the USDPHP pair to be trading flat in 2025. By summer the rates will gradually increase, reaching a new all-time high of ₱ 62.81, but in September the gradual decrease begins. Trading range appears to be quite narrow: ₱ 58.14 - ₱ 62.81. The year-end price will be estimated at ₱ 59.95.

WalletInvestor

Price range in 2025: ₱ 59.543 - ₱ 62.425 (as for July 24, 2024)

The forecast by WalletInvestor states that USDPHP will be on a steady and monthly uptrend during 2025. Despite some corrections in July and October, the asset will maintain the upward trajectory, closing at ₱ 62.415 at the year-end.

USD to PHP Forecast for 2026

Let's take a look at USDPHP's expert forecasts for 2026.

LongForecast

Price range in 2026: ₱ 57.39 - ₱ 65.62 (as for July 24, 2024)

Price range in 2026: ₱ 57.39 - ₱ 65.62 (as for July 24, 2024)

2026, asLongForecastforecast promises, will bring some obstacles to USDPHP. The year will kick-off with a surge, but the correction will start in February, coming to an end by June. As the summer starts, rates will begin rising more intensely. Finally, trades will close at ₱ 64.65, reaching the new maximum of ₱ 65.62 in the process.

CoinCodex

Price range in 2026: ₱ 57.23 - ₱ 61.62 (as for July 24, 2024)

According to the forecast by CoinCodex, the US Dollar to Philippine Peso rate will start holding back in 2026. Trades will open at ₱ 60.04. During the next 12 months the price will make several attempts to correct upwards, with most notable ones in July and August. Unfortunately, despite all the effort, the trend will remain bearish. The year will end at the ₱ 58.10 mark.

WalletInvestor

Price range in 2026: ₱ 62.413 - ₱ 65.298 (as for July 24, 2024)

The WalletInvestor analysts keep it optimistic towards the future market performance of USDPHP. They believe that the US Dollar will continue strengthening against the Philippine Peso — according to their evaluations, the December trades will close at ₱ 65.298. And, discounting some corrections in July and October, the rate growth won’t be interrupted.

Recent Price History of the USD PHP Pair

Over the past six months, the USD to PHP exchange rate has seen significant fluctuations, reflecting economic conditions and market sentiment between the U.S. and the Philippines. The highest rate was 57.04 PHP on September 4, 2023, showing relative dollar strength or peso weakness likely due to interest rate differentials, trade deficits, or investment flows. The six-month average rate was 56.015 PHP. The lowest rate was 54.341 PHP on July 13, 2023, possibly responding to global economic news, monetary policy shifts, or local fiscal policies.

For comparison, in 2022, the rate ranged from 50.9448 PHP to 52.4636 PHP, indicating generally stable yet fluctuating trends. This volatility offers insights into future trends and informs financial decisions. Analysts and traders closely track these movements to gauge market sentiment and identify potential turning points. Businesses trading in these currencies use historical data to hedge against exchange rate risk in financial planning and budgeting.

Long-Term USD to PHP Forecast for 2027-2030

The USDPHP price predictions up to 2030 are ambiguous. On the one side, 2028-2029 will be marked by the continued growth, which will bring the new all-time high of ₱ 68.82. On the other hand, 2027 and 2028 will see the continued decrease, the annual minimum will reach ₱ 54.56. After the 2029 surge another decline is expected — the min-max rate of 2030 will be estimated at ₱ 62.13 - ₱ 65.70, with the asset entering the side movement. It will be the time of challenges, risks and opportunities for the investors.

Source: CoinCodex

Which Factors Impact USD PHP Forecast?

The USD/PHP exchange rate's upward trend over the past decade is influenced by several economic factors. Here's an analysis of the most crucial elements:

• Persistently High Inflation and Interest Rates in the Philippines: The Philippines' higher inflation and interest rates than the US are pivotal in exerting downward pressure on the peso.
• Dependence on Imports, Remittances, and BPO Revenue: The country's economy relies heavily on imports, remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW), and Business Process Outsourcing (BPO).
• Potential Easing of PHP Depreciation: If the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) maintains a hawkish monetary policy stance, it could help stabilize the peso by making it more attractive to investors seeking higher yields.

Impact of Global Economic Conditions: External factors such as global economic slowdowns can reduce OFW remittances, a significant source of income for the Philippines, thereby affecting the peso.

Is USD/PHP Still a Good Investment?

The Philippine Peso is expected to see gradual but steady depreciation against the U.S. Dollar over time. This reflects economic challenges in the Philippines and global economic influences on currency values. Over the long term, the peso will likely continue depreciating due to domestic reforms, investment flows, and global growth.

While the overall trend points to depreciation, opportunities exist for investors who are attentive to market movements and reforms. However, uncertainty persists, so USD/PHP investments should be cautious, balancing risks and rewards. Portfolios should be diversified, and positions should be continually reevaluated against economic developments in both countries.

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.