Who is going to buy all this US debt? (2024)

Who is going to buy all this US debt? (1)

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Rod Khleif

Master Multi-Family Real Estate, Create Multi-Generational Wealth & Freedom, Invest Passively or Actively | 1-on-1 Expert Coach | Multifamily & Apartment Investing | Real Estate Investing | #1 Best-Selling Author

Published Jan 22, 2024

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Bloomberg recently estimated that interest expense on the United States' $33T debt just crossed $1T on an annualized basis. Federal receipts are $4.4T, which means almost a quarter of all revenue is consumed by interest. Interest expense has doubled over the past two years and will probably move higher with 2024 auction activity!

"Rather go to bed without dinner than to rise in debt." - Ben Franklin

We certainly have come a long way from the frugal beginnings of the country. The chart below shows how rapidly and seemingly out of control the US debt has skyrocketed to around $100K for every person in the country.

Who is going to buy all this US debt? (3)

In 2024, 33% of our outstanding public debt matures ($7.6T) and must be reissued in a higher rate environment. On top of this $7.6T, the federal deficit could hit $2.0T in 2024, which means the Treasury would have to issue nearly $10T of new debt. The question is: where is this money going to come from and what impact will this have on interest rates and taxes?

Of the $33T of debt, roughly 78% is owned by the public (70% US vs 30% International). The major US public owners include the FED ($6T, but they are no longer buyers), mutual funds, banks, states, pension funds and insurance companies. The international buying appetite has been falling over the past 10 years (dropping from 40% to the current 30%). The major international owners of US debt include Japan ($1.1T), China, UK, Belgium, Switzerland, Cayman Islands and smaller amounts from the rest of the world. After the recent weak treasury auction, US government officials warned that they are seeing waning demand from international buyers. China has been a net seller and Japan seems tapped out. The strong dollar is also working against the Treasury. The US dollar strength versus other currencies makes it attractive for international owners to sell US debt and use the dollars to buy their own currency, boosting the value.

The remaining debt (22%) is owned by inter-government agencies including Social Security and Medicare. If you believe that Social Security and Medicare are bleeding off their surplus, then logically they will be net sellers over time as they use reserves to pay recipients.

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The auctions will come down to simple supply and demand. We know the supply is increasing and the demand is falling, which is bad for pricing. If the rates on Treasuries are attractive (higher) relative to other options, then we should be able to reissue the debt. In the most recent auction, the FED had to pivot to shorter term notes to entice buyers. Today, the 6-month treasury note yields 5.25% versus 4.0% for the 10-year, so clearly interest costs will increase in the short term if the US government is forced to issue short-term debt to attract buyers. If we don't get our deficits under control, the situation will only grow worse.

There is evidence, however, that higher interest rates on US debt are attracting new buyers. Two European money managers, Rathbones and Pictet, both recently announced an increase in their holdings of US Treasuries due to the attractive rates. Currently the US 10-year (4.0%) is higher than in the UK (3.8%), Spain (3.2%), Germany (2.2%) and Switzerland (0.8%), so it seems attractive relative to these options.

We are not sure how this will all shake out, but at some point, something has to give because the trajectory we are on is unsustainable. At the end of the day, someone will have to pay for the sins of the past. Taxes need to move higher, and spending needs to be cut; both moves would hurt the economy. A weakening economy would have a ripple effect across all businesses and commercial real estate. We do not think the tax and financing benefits awarded to multi-family would be impacted during the "balance the budget phase" that is coming, due to the core nature of our product. However, the cloudy outlook reinforces our conservative thinking when evaluating deals.

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Real Estate Market Update Who is going to buy all this US debt? (7)

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Timothy Porter

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2mo

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Great job, unfortunately I see now way out for America's ever worsening debt crisis. However, hopefully automation can help pick up productivity before the dollar crashes to help make goods and services cheap when the average American is broke!

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MOMINUL ISLAM

Digital Marketer | SEO Service Provider | YouTube SEO Expert | Social Media Marketing Manager | Google and Facebook Ads Service Provider A Digital Marketing Specialist at Outsourcing BD Institute.

5mo

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Great

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Who is going to buy all this US debt? (2024)

FAQs

Who is going to buy all this US debt? ›

The international buying appetite has been falling over the past 10 years (dropping from 40% to the current 30%). The major international owners of US debt include Japan ($1.1T), China, UK, Belgium, Switzerland, Cayman Islands and smaller amounts from the rest of the world.

Who is buying U.S. debt? ›

Foreign holders of United States treasury debt

Of the total held by foreign countries, Japan and Mainland China held the greatest portions, with China holding 797.7 billion U.S. dollars in U.S. securities. Other foreign holders included oil exporting countries and Caribbean banking centers.

Who owns over 70% of the U.S. debt? ›

Who owns the most U.S. debt? Around 70 percent of U.S. debt is held by domestic financial actors and institutions in the United States. U.S. Treasuries represent a convenient, liquid, low-risk store of value.

Who are the biggest buyers of US treasuries? ›

The three largest holders of Treasuries -- Japan, China and the UK -- led the purchase U.S. government debt. Japanese investors raised their stash of Treasuries to $1.138 trillion in December, from $1.127 trillion in November, data showed. Their holdings were the largest since August 2022.

What would happen if China sold all its US treasuries? ›

If China (or any other nation that has a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.

How much does China owe the United States? ›

China (Mainland)

China is the U.S.'s second-largest foreign creditor, owing more than $1 trillion of U.S. debt. With 1.4 billion people, the world's second-largest economy and rapid economic growth, mainland China is an undisputed economic powerhouse [source: World Bank].

Who is the US most in debt with? ›

Nearly half of all US foreign-owned debt comes from five countries. All values are adjusted to 2023 dollars. As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).

Does any country owe the US money? ›

Then there are the countries that owe America money. Even though Japan holds the biggest amount of U.S. debt, the U.S. is also owed a lot of money by them too. Debts and investments are reciprocal relationships. Debts are often created as a natural part of doing international business.

Who is in control of the U.S. debt? ›

Economists use the ratio of debt to a nation's gross domestic product as an indicator of a country's financial sustainability. The national debt in the United States is primarily held by the American public, followed by foreign governments, U.S. banks, and investors. Treasury.gov.

Does China own the US? ›

While Chinese ownership of U.S. land has been a hot topic among lawmakers — even becoming the center of a Montana Senate race this year — China only had a stake in 383,935 acres of U.S. land as of 2021, which is less than 1% of all foreign-held land.

Why is the US in so much debt? ›

One of the main culprits is consistently overspending. When the federal government spends more than its budget, it creates a deficit. In the fiscal year of 2023, it spent about $381 billion more than it collected in revenues. To pay that deficit, the government borrows money.

Who is the world's largest buyer of US debt isn't going away? ›

For all the focus on China, Japan is actually the top holder of U.S. sovereign debt, with a total of $1.1 trillion.

Why is China dumping US debt? ›

China sold a record $53.3 billion worth of Treasurys and agency bonds in the first-quarter, Bloomberg reported. It previously unloaded US debt to prop up its yuan, which has again grown weak against a rallying dollar. The country is piling into gold, which now makes up the highest share of its reserves since 2015.

What would happen if China called in US debt? ›

If China called in all of its U.S. holdings, the U.S. dollar would depreciate, whereas the yuan would appreciate, making Chinese goods more expensive.

Who is in control of the US debt? ›

Economists use the ratio of debt to a nation's gross domestic product as an indicator of a country's financial sustainability. The national debt in the United States is primarily held by the American public, followed by foreign governments, U.S. banks, and investors. Treasury.gov.

Who does the US borrow debt from? ›

The federal government borrows money from the public by issuing securities—bills, notes, and bonds—through the Treasury. Treasury securities are attractive to investors because they are: Backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government.

How much US debt does Russia own? ›

According to the US Treasury, Russian ownership of US Treasuries was $2.1 Billion in Nov 2022.

How will the US pay its debt? ›

When the federal government spends more than its budget, it creates a deficit. In the fiscal year of 2023, it spent about $381 billion more than it collected in revenues. To pay that deficit, the government borrows money. That can happen by selling marketable securities like treasury bonds.

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