Will Luna Classic reach 1 cent in 2023? Analysis (2024)

Terra Luna might be down – but Luna Classic is not out.

Zombie token Luna Classic shocked the crypto market when it pumped over 500% in September, reaching a price of $0.00035, and making a few adventurous traders rich. More of the same and it's not hard to imagine Luna Classic entering the crypto top 20 by market cap once again.

The bullish case for a $1 Luna Classic is out the window for 2023. You'll see why below. But what about Luna Classic reaching 1 cent ($0.01) in 2023?

Here are three points to consider, and some valuable comparisons to help you build a winning crypto portfolio.

Can Luna Classic hit 1 cent in 2023 on investment alone?

By that, we mean market cap.

Here's the implied market cap Luna Classic would require to hit the following price increases:

As you can see, it's impossible for Luna Classic to get a $6 trillion market in the next 12 months. That would make LUNC six times larger than the entire crypto industry.

A $600 billion market cap means beating Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, USDC and all other major crypto tokens. A $60 billion market cap that gets LUNC to $0.01 could be more possible – though it would require Luna Classic to do something incredible that warrants it overtaking the likes of BNB, Dogecoin, XRP, Cardano and so on.

Can Luna Classic burn its way to 1 cent in 2023?

Burning Luna Classic will drastically reduce the market cap figures you saw above.

Say the community can burn 15% of all Luna Classic tokens, that then reduces the implied market required to reach 1 cent by $10 billion. Such a successful burn rate would no date draw huge investment to Luna Classic.

Unfortunately, Luna Classic is way off track at present.

After the burn rate was cut in October from 1.2% down to 0.2% of every on-chain (and Binance) transaction, the monthly burn rate fell from 18.8 billion LUNC to 9.2 billion LUNC. It would take at least 10 years to burn 15% of the LUNC supply if things stay the same.

Compare this with newer altcoins like EverGrow, which burned 1% of its supply in November 2022.

EverGrow is winning the battle for the fastest-burning crypto token after it launched an NFT marketplace –LunaSky – which sends 100% of its revenue to burn EverGrow. There's also a 2% burn tax on each transaction. EverGrow is on track to burn about 15% of its supply in the next year once a handful more applications launch.

The Luna Classic pump in September came entirely from the news that Binance would implement a Luna Classic burn tax.

Now that that tax was slashed down, Luna Classic won't likely win investment due to coin burning.

Can Luna Classic/ USTC re-peg?

The algorithmic stablecoin UST worked in tandem with Terra Luna, and together they both entered the crypto top 10 before the dramatic collapse in May this year.

So imagine if USTC could repeg to the dollar, and turn live an incentive mechanism that drives investment back into LUNC and USTC?

That's the plan of the Terra Rebels.

They just won a vote that will see them contracted to secure the Terra Classic chain wallet interface (Luna is upgrading with an Inter Station wallet) and backend infrastructure. The Terra Rebels plan includes a repeg attempt in Q1 of 2023. Could it work?

There's not a lot of information about how a repeg would work.

Nevertheless, it could be a gamechanger that helps LUNC do the impossible and reach a 1 cent price.