World Bank predicts significant drop in global food prices in 2025 (2024)

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World Bank predicts significant drop in global food prices in 2025? ›

Data updated as of May 10, 2024. Food prices are expected to ease. The World Bank's food price index is expected to decline by 6 percent in 2024 and an additional 4 percent in 2025.

The global food crisis has been partially made worse by the growing number of food trade restrictions put in place by countries with a goal of increasing domestic supply and reducing prices. As of February 12, 2024, 16 countries have implemented 23 food export bans, and 8 have implemented 15 export-limiting measures.

As a result, the October 2023 Outlook tentatively suggests a global peak in the prevalence of severe food insecurity was reached at 11.9% globally in 2020-2022, with only a slight near-term improvement to 11.8% (2021-2023) and 11.6% (2022-2023), showing significant variation across regions and income groups.

Why is food so expensive? Food prices have risen steadily since 2020 thanks to a combination of factors, including inflation, labor costs, the supply chain and the war in Ukraine. These challenges won't be resolved in 2024 but the economic outlook and overall inflation are improving.

Food prices are expected to continue to decelerate in 2024 compared to recent years. In 2024, all food prices are predicted to increase 2.2 percent, with a prediction interval of 1.0 to 3.5 percent.

Conflict is the primary driver of food insecurity in the world, and the greatest threat to a more stable, prosperous and food-secure future.

This surge in demand, coupled with unpredictable weather patterns and climate change, sets the stage for an expected shortage in 2024.

INTERVIEWS WITH FOOD SECURITY EXPERTS

Up to 783 million people faced hunger in 2022, and projections show that in 2030, over 600 million people will still struggle to feed their families. What can we do to fight the global food crisis, especially in the most vulnerable regions?

By 2050, with a global population of close to 10 billion, experts project that the problems of food access inequality and the environmental and economic consequences of global warming will only grow more severe. As these issues evolve, the need for sustainable food and sustainable food systems will become more urgent.

The world population could be too big to feed itself by 2050. By then, there will be almost 10 billion people on the planet and food demand will have increased by 70 percent compared to 2017. Scientists put the limit on how many people Earth can feed at 10 billion - max!

Will food prices go down in 2025 in the USA? ›

The decline, reflecting robust harvests, unfolded despite the non-renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, some trade restrictions, and the ongoing El Niño. Global food prices are expected to ease further in 2024 and 2025 (2 and 3 percent, respectively) as the global supply outlook continues to improve.

According to a new report by the Federal Trade Commission, the largest grocery retailers — which include Walmart, Kroger, and Amazon, which owns Whole Foods — used the pandemic as an excuse to raise prices across the board.

According to officials with the US Department of Agriculture, 2024 could be the year it happens, at least by a little bit. Last week, the agency released its Food Price Outlook for the new year. In the report, USDA officials predict that grocery store prices will fall by . 4%, after seeing a 5% increase in 2023.

The Bankrate promise

The largest share (35 percent) say inflation could reach that target by the end of 2024, but those odds were only slightly higher than the percentage of economists who expect 2 percent inflation by the end of 2025 (29 percent) or the end of 2026 (29 percent).

Bread now costs over $2 per pound — $2.03, to be exact, as of January. Last January, the same pound cost just $1.89 for a year-over-year increase of 7.7%. A standard loaf of sliced white bread weighs 20oz, which means a loaf costs about $2.54, so $20 can buy you just shy of eight loaves.

The PCE Index is projected to fall to 2.1% by fourth-quarter 2024, averaging 2.3% for the year. Supply chain improvements and falling housing prices have yet to be fully reflected in inflation numbers.

Both in the United States and in developing nations, food insecurity is often linked to poverty. Shifts in the global economy, including rises in global food and oil prices, can affect food security throughout the world, with especially severe effects in low-income countries (13).

Ending world hunger is one of the greatest challenges of our time; as many as 309 million people are facing acute levels of food insecurity in 2024 in the 72 countries with WFP operations and where data is available.

Ensuring the Future of Food Security

Crucial steps to ensure food security across the world will need to include a more effective distribution of food supplies and a drastic change in the food system as we know it. We can no longer produce food for economic profit.

Global food demand will increase by more than 50 percent in 2050, but due to climate change, agriculture yields of major crops could decrease over that same period. This dangerous combination could lead to price spikes, food insecurity, social unrest, political tensions, and conflict.