According to current estimates, the next Bitcoin halving is expected to happen sometime in the first half of 2028, at block number 1,050,000.Meanwhile, the most recent halving took place on April 20, 2024 (at block number 840,000), slashing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Most Bitcoin investors get very excited about the Bitcoin halving, which happens approximately every four years. When a Bitcoin halving happens, the Bitcoin block reward decreasesby half. The block reward is received by the miner that adds the next block to the Bitcoin blockchain, and it is the only way in which new BTC coins are created.
Key highlights:
- The lastBitcoin halving happened in April 2024, reducingthe Bitcoin mining reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block.
- Historical data shows Bitcoin price has typically been higher at each subsequent halving, with significant fluctuations between cycles.
- In past cycles, Bitcoin reached the highest value 6 to 12 months after each halving.
- The halving process will continue until all 21 million Bitcoins are mined, with 28more halvings anticipated after 2024.
- The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur in the first half of 2028, at block number 1,050,000.
Historically, Bitcoin has rallied after each of the previous three halving events:
- 2012-2013: BTC's price increased from $12.4 to $1,170, gaining +9,335%
- 2016-2017: BTC's price increased from $680 to $19,400, gaining +2,753%
- 2020-2021: BTC's price increased from $8,590 to $66,708, gaining +676%
Given the historical trend, now might be a good time to buy BTC.
Every halving, therefore, reduces the amount of new BTC entering circulation, which is seen as a positive by existing BTC holders. This is because halvings reduce the Bitcoin inflation rate and also reduce the amount of potential selling pressure from Bitcoin miners. The Bitcoin halving in 2024 will reduce the block reward from the current 6.25 Bitcoin per block to 3.125 Bitcoin per block.
So far, we have had three Bitcoin halvings. The first happened in November 2012, the second happened in July 2016, the third happened in May 2020, and the fourth in April 2024. As for future Bitcoin halving dates, we can estimate when they will happen but can’t predict them with complete accuracy.
Bitcoin halving rewards have decreased from 50 per mined block in 2009 to 3.125 per mined block in 2024.
This is because the Bitcoin protocol is designed so that the block reward is reduced by half every 210,000 blocks. While the Bitcoin protocol targets a 10-minute block time, the time it actually takes to add a new block to the Bitcoin blockchain varies on a block-by-block basis.
If blocks are added too quickly, the difficulty of mining automatically increases. If blocks are added too slowly, the difficulty decreases. These difficulty adjustments happen after every 2016 blocks, which translates to approximately two weeks.
The last BTC halving date was April 20, 2024
Even though it’s impossible to predict the exact amount of time it will take to add blocks to the Bitcoin blockchain, we can still get a pretty accurate estimate of when the next Bitcoin halving will happen. At the current speed at which new blocks are getting added to the blockchain, the next Bitcoin halving will occur sometime in Q2 2028.The closer we get to the halving, the more accurate the estimates will be.
As we can see from this updated version of the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, the three past Bitcoin halvings happened when the BTC price was relatively low. If this trend were to continue, we would see the current crypto bear market extend into the first half of 2024, and we would expect the trend to start reversing in the second half of 2024. TheBitcoin halving could play an important role in the recovery of the crypto market.
However, the current cycle did break the historical trend, with Bitcoin reaching a new ATH about a month before the 4th halving. This could mean that the bull cycle came earlier this time around and will end sooner or that BTC could be primed for an even more explosive rally than in previous cycles. The likely reason why BTC has rallied earlier than in previous cycles is the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, which have enabled traditional investors to buy BTC more easily, which is something that wasn't the case before.
Bitcoin halving dates history
Now, let’s take a quick look at the history of Bitcoin halvings with our Bitcoin halving dates chart. So far, Bitcoin has had four halvings, and the price at each halving was significantly higher than at the previous halving.
| Date | Block height | Block reward reduction | BTC price at date of halving | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First halving | November 28, 2012 | 210,000 | 50 BTC => 25 BTC | $12.4 |
| Second halving | July 9, 2016 | 420,000 | 25 BTC => 12.5 BTC | $680 |
| Third halving | May 11, 2020 | 630,000 | 12.5 BTC => 6.25 BTC | $8,590 |
| Fourth halving | April 20, 2024 | 840,000 | 6.25 BTC => 3.125 BTC | $64,025 |
Now, let’s take a look at how the Bitcoin price has moved during each Bitcoin halving cycle. For each 4-year period, we’ll take a look at the highest and lowest prices reached by BTC.
| Lowest price | Highest price | |
|---|---|---|
| First halving cycle (November 2012 - July 2016) | $12.4 (December 2012) | $1,170 (November 2013) |
| Second halving cycle (July 2016 - May 2020) | $535 (August 2016) | $19,400 (December 2017) |
| Third halving cycle (May 2020 - April 2024) | $8,590 (May 2020) | $73,628 (April 2024) |
| Fourth halving cycle (April 2024 - H1 2028*) | $57,050 (May 2024) | $66,990 (April 2024) |
*The fifth halving is expected to happen in the first half of 2028. The closer we get to the halving, the more accurate the prediction will be.
As we can see from the Bitcoin halving cycle price chart, Bitcoin halvings have historically represented strong opportunities to buy BTC. However, there have only been 3 complete halving cycles so far, so the sample size isvery small.
Pre-halving period (2009-2012)
The period between the Genesis block and the first Bitcoin halving in 2012 can be called the pre-halving period. This period lasted from the launch of Bitcoin on January 3, 2009, until November 28, 2012.
The Bitcoin protocol started off by providing a 50 BTC block reward to miners. Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous inventor of Bitcoin, was participating in Bitcoin mining during the protocol’s early days and amassed a huge stash of BTC. According to estimates, Satoshi mined between 750,000 and 1.1 million BTC. If Satoshi Nakamoto is still alive, they are one of the richest people on the planet.
- Block reward: 50 BTC
- Bitcoins mined: 10.5 million
- Highest price: $29.6
- Lowest price: $0.06
Bitcoin halving 2012 (first halving)
The second Bitcoin halving happened on November 28, 2012, reducing the block reward to 25 BTC. During this first halving cycle, Bitcoin began seeing mainstream attention due to its use on dark web markets like Silk Road, and the collapse of the Mt. Gox cryptocurrency exchange also captured a lot of attention. During this period, the Bitcoin price surpassed $1,000 for the first time ever.
- Halving date: November 28, 2012
- Block reward: 25 BTC
- Bitcoins mined: 5.25 million
- Highest price: $1,170
- Lowest price: $12.4
Bitcoin halving 2016 (second halving)
The second Bitcoin halving happened on July 9, 2016, and reduced the Bitcoin block reward to 12.5 BTC. During this second halving cycle, Bitcoin got some serious competition in the cryptocurrency market, as the emergence of Ethereum and ICOs helped spark a crypto market bubble that reached its peak in late 2017 and early 2018.
Even though Bitcoin dominance fell sharply during this period, BTC investors still had the opportunity for substantial gains as the price peaked at almost $20,000.
- Halving date: July 9, 2016
- Block reward: 12.5 BTC
- Bitcoins mined: 2.625 million
- Highest price: $19,400
- Lowest price: $535
Bitcoin halving 2020 (third halving)
The third Bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2020, and brought the block reward into the single digits, or 6.25 BTC, to be more precise. During this halving cycle, the Bitcoin market cap surpassed $1 trillion for the first time ever, and BTC reached its all-time high of $73,628.
This cycle was marked by growing adoption and investment from sophisticated investors, although the rising crypto prices, of course, also attracted a large mainstream crowd to the crypto markets. It was also market by the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs by large financial firms like BlackRock and Fidelity, which streamlined institutional investor's Bitcoin purchases.
The third halving cycle has been a bit unusual, as BTC reached its highest price toward the end of the cycle, whereas previously, the highest cycle price came within roughly one year of each Bitcoin halving event.
- Halving date: May 11, 2020
- Block reward: 6.25 BTC
- Bitcoins mined: 1.3125 million
- Highest price: $73,628
- Lowest price: $8,590
Bitcoin having 2024 (fourth halving)
The fourth BTC halving occurred on April 20, 2024, halving the Bitcoin mining reward rate to 3.125 BTC. While we're still very early in the fourth halving cycle, we've already observed some interesting trends that are in line with historical trends. Mainly, the price of BTC has not been moving in a positive direction immediately after the halving, which is the same pattern we've observed in previous halving cycles.
- Halving date: April 20, 2024
- Block reward: 3.125 BTC
- Highest price: $66,990
- Lowest price: $57,050
How many Bitcoin halvings will there be?
Bitcoin halvings are one of the most critical events in the crypto industry, regulating the Bitcoin mining economy and introducing cyclical price activity to the sector.
There will be many more Bitcoin halvings in the future, as they will continue until the last Bitcoin is mined. In total, there will be 32 Bitcoin halvings, which means there are 28more halvings left to go.
Here's the list of theupcoming halvings, their estimated halving dates, and their respective miner reward reductions:
| Bitcoin Halving # | Est. Year | Block Number | Block Reward | New BTC Mined | All BTC Mined | % of All BTC Mined |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5th halving | 2028 | 1,050,000 | 1.5625 | 328,125 BTC | 20,671,875 BTC | 98.4375% |
| 6th halving | 2032 | 1,260,000 | 0.78125 | 164,062.5 BTC | 20,835,937.5 BTC | 99.21875% |
| 7th halving | 2036 | 1,470,000 | 0.390625 | 82,031.25 BTC | 20,917,968.75 BTC | 99.609375% |
| 8th halving | 2040 | 1,680,000 | 0.1953125 | 41,015.625 BTC | 20,958,984.38 BTC | 99.8046875% |
| 9th halving | 2044 | 1,890,000 | 0.09765625 | 20,507.8125 BTC | 20,979,492.19 BTC | 99.90234375% |
| 10th halving | 2048 | 2,100,000 | 0.048828125 | 10,253.90625 BTC | 20,989,746.09 BTC | 99.95117188% |
| 11th halving | 2052 | 2,310,000 | 0.0244140625 | 5126.953125 BTC | 20,994,873.05 BTC | 99.97558594% |
| 12th halving | 2056 | 2,520,000 | 0.01220703125 | 2563.476563 BTC | 20,997,436.52 BTC | 99.98779297% |
| 13th halving | 2060 | 2,730,000 | 0.006103515625 | 1281.738281 BTC | 20,998,718.26 BTC | 99.99389648% |
Bitcoin has a maximum supply of 21 million BTC, of which 19.7 million have already been mined. When all 21 million BTC are mined, Bitcoin miners will no longer be receiving any block rewards but will only receive the transaction fees paid by users. By the time of the next Bitcoin halving in 2028, 98% of the total Bitcoin supply will have been mined.
Bitcoin inflation
Bitcoin is designed as a digital currency with a limited supply. This is why you'll often see people describe Bitcoin as a "deflationary" currency. However, until the limit of 21 million BTC is reached, the supply of Bitcoin will inflate.
Even though the Bitcoin supply is technically inflating, the difference between Bitcoin and traditional currencies is that with Bitcoin, we can predict its level of inflation with great accuracy for any given point in the future. This is because Bitcoin's supply dynamics are clearly defined by the code in the Bitcoin protocol. Meanwhile, the inflation of fiat currencies is much less predictable since it is influenced by economic trends, politics, and countless other factors.
With each halving, Bitcoin's inflation rate is reduced significantly. The chart below demonstrates how the Bitcoin supply (orange) and annualized inflation rate (blue) will trend in the future based on the rules implemented in the Bitcoin protocol.
Image source: BitcoinVisuals.com
The bottom line: After the 2024 halving, we can expect 28 more BTC halvings, with the last one estimated for the 2130s
As the next halving approaches, the accuracy at which we can predict the Bitcoin halving date increases significantly. The reason for this is the lower amount of blocks and a more precise calculation at which these blocks will be produced. As of writing, the next BTC halving is expected for the first half of 2028, while the last, fourth, halving happened in April 2024.
Each halving cycle has introduced unique trading patterns, and there are plenty of reasons to expect we will see the same with the next halving. While we cannot say how the price of Bitcoin will move after the 2024 halving, we say that it will likely be very volatile, like in the previous halving cycles.
It is worth noting that we are currently in the early phases of BTC halvings's life cycle, with the final halving slated far in the future, in 2136.
Another digital currency that follows a halving cycle that is very similar to Bitcoin is Litecoin. You can read more about Litecoin halving dates and their historical price impact in our previous article.
Other cryptocurrencies will also likely benefit from the positive sentiment that is expected to develop as the next Bitcoin halving approaches. To learn more, check out our list of the best cryptocurrencies to buy before the next Bitcoin halving.
