Plant-based retail market overview | GFI (2024)

Plant-based meat and seafood sales

2023 marked a year of sales declines for plant-based meat and seafood, with losses in the double digits.

These trends reflect a return to pre-pandemic sales levels following unprecedented food-at-home growth during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020—dollar sales in 2023 were roughly $240 million above 2019 levels. They also signal opportunities to better meet consumer needs and expectations on the key drivers of consumer choice—taste, price, and convenience. For more information and analysis on the plant-based meat and seafood category’s sales performance, read our plant-based meat sales analysis, where we share insights into where the plant-based meat and seafood category is today and what that means for its future.

Key insights

• Plant-based meat and seafood sales fell significantly in 2023. In the past two years, unit sales decreased 26 percent from 289 million units in 2021 to 215 million units in 2023. Notably, packaged conventional meat and seafood unit sales also declined over the same period from 12.9 billion units in 2021 to 12.2 billion units in 2023, or -6 percent. So, from 2021 to 2023, plant-based meat and seafood sales declined by 74 million units, while packaged conventional meat and seafood sales declined by 713 million units. This dynamic underscores that, while plant-based meat and seafood is experiencing substantial declines, it’s within a context of broader meat and seafood unit declines. Many of the same consumer pressures, like price, are likely impacting both the conventional meat and seafood and plant-based foods markets.
• Plant-based meat and seafood’s market share was ~1 percent of the total meat category in 2023. In 2023, plant-based meat and seafood’s share was 1.8 percent of total retail packaged meat dollar sales or 0.9 percent of the total meat category* (including random-weight meat), down very slightly from 2022.
• Plant-based meat and seafood’s market share in the natural channel is in the double digits. In the natural channel—where retail trends tend to start before disseminating into grocery and mass—plant-based meat and seafood’s market share of packaged meat dollar sales is just shy of 12 percent (6 percent of total meat including random weight), compared to its 1.8 percent share of total marketplace packaged meat dollar sales (0.9 percent of total meat including random weight).
• Attracting and retaining more households are major opportunities for plant-based meat and seafood. In 2023, 15 percent of households purchased in the category, down from a high of 20 percent in 2021. In simplified terms, this decline alone could explain the amount of unit sales declines seen over the same timeframe. It’s notable that repeat purchase rates have stayed relatively flat. This signals that loyal shoppers maintained purchases while sales declines were driven by households leaving the category in 2023. Reengaging these households is a clear opportunity.
• Plant-based meat and seafood shoppers are similar demographically to overall plant-based food shoppers. In particular, plant-based meat and seafood buyers are more likely to be Asian. African American or Gen X buyers are more likely to spend more in the plant-based meat and seafood category.

*SPINS does not report non-UPC animal-based meat counter sales, only UPC packaged meat sales. To calculate the plant-based meat and seafood share of the total meat category, GFI develops dollar and unit volume assumptions for non-UPC animal-based meat counter sales and adds them to the SPINS UPC animal-based meat sales.

Segment insights: Refrigerated vs. frozen vs. shelf-stable

• In 2023, the share of plant-based meat and seafood dollar sales in the frozen department grew to nearly 70 percent (up from 61 percent in 2021), followed by refrigerated at 30 percent (down from 38 percent in 2021) and shelf-stable at 2 percent (slightly up from 1 percent in 2021).
• Unit sales declines in refrigerated outpaced declines in frozen over the last two years. Refrigerated unit sales declined 33 percent from 2021 to 2023, while shelf-stable grew 30 percent, albeit off of a small base. Consumers are shifting their spending to the frozen department for plant-based meat and seafood purchases.
• Notable factors likely contributing to this dynamic include:
  • Retailers shifting products to the frozen department to extend shelf life and consolidate store sets.
  • Notable product launches and line extensions in the frozen aisle including steaks, nuggets, and cutlets, while new activity in the refrigerated aisle is relatively limited. Similarly, there was little activity in shelf-stable product launches in 2023.
  • Average price-per-unit increases soared +26 percent for frozen products from 2021 to 2023 while refrigerated grew just 4 percent in the same timeframe. Shelf stable prices jumped +11 percent. These price increases, although bolstering frozen dollar sales, may play a role in declining unit sales across the frozen aisle.
  • Historically, refrigerated plant-based meat and seafood was a key growth driver for the category, as it is frequently shelved in the meat case (rather than a specialty vegan case). This enabled it to be located in the section of the store where most shoppers look for center-of-plate proteins.

For more insights on how to capitalize on merchandising strategies for the plant-based meat and seafood market, check out our merchandising guide.

Segment insights: Plant-based meat and seafood formats

• Plant-based patties continued to be the largest plant-based meat and seafood product type, followed by (2) nuggets, tenders, and wings, (3) grounds, (4) hot dogs, brats, and sausages, and (5) breakfast links and patties.
• Together, these five segments made up nearly 80 percent of all plant-based meat and seafood dollar sales in 2023.
• Meanwhile, recent product launches extended into other formats such as filets, steaks, and cutlets.

Segment insights: Animal types

• Plant-based beef remained the largest animal-type subcategory by dollar sales, followed by plant-based chicken and pork.
• 2022 saw growth in plant-based chicken and seafood, but 2023 was a down year for all animal types in the plant-based meat and seafood category.
• While both analog products (like plant-based beef, chicken, and pork) and plant-forward products (like black bean burgers) experienced double-digit sales declines, plant-forward products declined more than analogs did. In the last 2 years, the plant-forward segment decreased 29 percent by dollars and 41 percent by units, while the analog segment decreased 11 percent by dollars and 24 percent by units. This indicates that analog products that mimic the taste and texture of conventional meat remain the primary retail play.

Purchase dynamics

Household penetration and repeat purchase

• 15 percent of U.S. households purchased plant-based meat and seafood in 2023. This is significantly down from the peak of 20 percent in 2021. Notably, this is roughly double the penetration rate of tofu, tempeh, and seitan, signaling that this next generation of meat alternatives that looks, cooks, and tastes similar to conventional meat has helped unlock consumer interest.
• The majority of shoppers are repeat purchasers. 62 percent of households purchasing plant-based meat and seafood made repeat purchases within the category. Among plant-based categories, this was third to plant-based milk (79 percent) and plant-based creamer (65 percent).
• Households that purchase plant-based and conventional meat spend more per household. Households buying both spent 20 percent more on total food purchases than the average household and 21 percent more than households only buying conventional meat in 2023.

Co-purchasing

• Households purchasing plant-based meat and seafood are much more likely to be purchasers of other plant-based categories. Of households that purchased plant-based meat and seafood in 2023, 67 percent also purchased plant-based milk compared to just 44 percent of total households. The same is true for other plant-based categories including cheese (24 percent vs 7 percent), yogurt (20 percent vs 8 percent), ice cream and frozen novelties (23 percent vs 10 percent), eggs (5 percent vs 1 percent), creamer (25 percent vs 15 percent), butter (18 percent vs 6 percent), and tofu, tempeh, and seitan (26 percent vs 8 percent).
• Shoppers in the plant-based meat category aren’t fully plant-based, however, as they often purchase animal-based products in the same basket. Conventional meat showed up in 30 percent of baskets where plant-based meat and seafood were purchased, conventional cheese in 28 percent, and conventional yogurt in 17 percent. Additionally, 35 percent of plant-based meat and seafood trips included another plant-based product (e.g., plant-based dairy or eggs).