Making a comeback in boxing is a common occurrence. Boxers tend to peak in their mid-30s, with many studies citing an average retirement age of 37, but while age is a factor in many retirements, injury, motivation, career length, and money can all influence the decision.
With retired boxing stars David Haye and Evander Holyfield intending to make their separate comebacks on the 11th of September 2021, here at Geezers Boxing, we began to wonder what to expect on their big returns.
Boxing Retirements and Comebacks
We analysed information about 20 boxers who had retired from boxing and made a return. The dataset can be viewed below. With prominent boxers including Muhammad Ali, Floyd Mayweather Jr., and Vitali Klitschko, it is evident that retiring from boxing is a common occurrence in the ring… as are comebacks.
The data gave us unique insight into retirement length and the success of boxers in their comeback fights. The youngest retirement age from boxing is 28, with both David Allen and George Foreman retiring at this age. That is 9 years younger than the average retirement age of 37. We also noticed that the oldest retirement age prior to Evander Holyfield’s announced return was Roy Jones Jr. at 48, 11 years over the average. Holyfield’s comeback makes him the oldest boxer to retire at 51.
The difference in return age is similarly varied. David Allen is the youngest boxer in our dataset to make a return at the age of 29. Nigel Benn previously claimed the top spot for age on return, setting his return boxing match at 55. However, Evander Holyfield will be 58 when he fights Vitor Belfort on the 11th of September 2021, making him the oldest boxer to make a comeback.
Average Retirement and Comeback Ages
When analysing the 20 boxers in our dataset prior to Evander Holyfield’s comeback announcement, we discovered that the average age of retirement was 35.1, less than 2 years younger than the typical average retirement age. With the data for Evander Holyfield changing, that becomes 36.05. When looking at the age that many boxers made their comeback, the average worked out at 40.25, over 3 years higher than the expected average, or 41.5 when we take the new data into account.
Out of the 20 boxers, 13 retired at 37 or younger. The difference between our findings and the findings of other studies could be a result of focusing only on the most recent retirement, instead of factoring in all retirements for each boxer.
Perhaps most interesting is the typical year gap between retirement and comeback. While a large number of boxers in our dataset returned within 5 years, 6 returned after this, pushing the average year gap to 5.15 years. Evander Holyfield’s return changes this, making it 7 returning and an average year gap of 5.45.
Most Boxers Return Within 5 Years
After collecting the data, we could see a huge variety in retirement age, comeback age, and the year gap between them. Our research revealed that 70% of boxers make their return to the ring within 5 years of retiring, becoming 65% when Holyfield’s recent comeback is taken into account. David Haye is set to make his return 3 years after retiring, putting him firmly in the 65%, while Evander Holyfield’s comeback is set for 7 years after his retirement.
The smallest gap between retirement and comeback we found goes to Audley Harrison. Harrison made their comeback to the ring just 20 days after announcing their retirement, making for perhaps the shortest retirement in boxing history.
By contrast, Nigel Benn takes the top spot for the gap between retirement and return, with 23 years between his retirement and his planned return. While an injury prevented his official return, we imagine it would have been an impressive match to watch.
The Overall Chances of Winning on Return
Out of the 20 boxers we analysed, 16 return matches have now taken place. David Allen’s fight is the most recent, resulting in a win by Technical Knockout (TKO). Technical Knockout is the most common result of all of these fights, both wins and loses, accounting for 7 out of the 16 matches. 4 were the result of Unanimous Decision (UD), while 3 were Knockouts (KOs) and 2 were Referee Technical Decisions (RTD) for corner retirements and stoppages.
11 out of the 16 matches have resulted in a win for the returning boxer, meaning that boxers making a return to the ring have a 68..75% chance of winning their return match.
Analysing the win results shows that 5 of the wins were the result of a TKO, suggesting that boxers making their comeback have a 45.45% chance of winning their return match by TKO.
David Haye Returns After 3 Years
David Haye is set to make his comeback in an exhibition fight against Joe Fournier on the 11th of September 2021, less than 5 years since his retirement. It is set to be a great fight. David Haye has an impressive track record of wins, with 28 throughout his professional career. However, challenger Joe Fournier has not lost any fights in his professional boxing career to date.
So what are the chances of a win for David Haye based on comeback performances to date?
According to our data, boxers returning to the ring within 5 years of their retirement won 75% of their fights, with 25% resulting in a loss. The odds are in David Haye’s favour.
Our research suggests that, should Haye win, it is likely to be as a result of a TKO. 4 of the wins for boxers returning within 5 years results in a TKO victory, with 2 as UD, 2 as KO, and 1 as RTD. Should Haye win his comeback fight, it is 40% likely to be via TKO.
Evander Holyfield’s 7 Year Comeback
Oscar De La Hoya was set for a comeback fight against Vitor Belfort. Unfortunately, De La Hoya has been hospitalised with COVID-19. Since then, Evander Holyfield has announced that he will be taking De La Hoya’s place in the fight, making his comeback after 7 years on the 11th of September 2021.
Looking at the statistics of comeback fights, the data is not on his side. Out of the 4 matches fought by those returning to the ring after 5 years, 2 were wins, giving Holyfield a 50/50 chance of securing a win, should the fight have taken place.
The results of these fights are similarly split. Out of the 2 wins, 1 was the result of a UD, while the other was a TKO. The match could go either way and while Holyfield’s track record suggests it could be a success for him, fans have been concerned after seeing footage of Holyfield shadow boxing in preparation for the fight.
5 Year Retirements More Likely To Win
With injuries common among boxers, retirements aren’t a surprise or a rarity. Boxers retire all of the time, some more than once, so our data focuses on only the most recent retirement and comeback for boxers. The data would likely look very different if we were to include all retirements for boxers.
The most interesting finding from our research is that boxers are more likely to win their return fight if they make their comeback within 5 years of retirement. After that, the data gets more sparse, with many boxers opting to return less than 5 years later, but it suggests that waiting more than 5 years for a comeback isn’t in their favour.
With 2 highly anticipated fights set to take place on the 11th September 2021, we are excited to see the results. Will David Haye secure a victory by TKO? Will Evander Holyfield break the 50/50 split to achieve a win
Methodology: We collected data on 20 boxers who have retired and either made a comeback to the ring or set a date for their return. Data of retirement ages, comeback ages, and fight results were collected from Wikipedia and BoxRec. Our dataset focused only on the most recent retirement and comeback when multiple retirements were applicable.
The data was collated prior to Evander Holyfield's announced comeback fight, replacing Oscar De La Hoya to fight Vitor Belfort on the 11th of September 2021.
