Fantasy Baseball Forecaster for Week 1: March 28-31 (2024)

Happy Opening Day!

The 2024 Major League Baseball season begins -- well, at least games played domestically do -- on Thursday, with a four-day scoring period in ESPN fantasy baseball leagues that concludes Easter Sunday. This wraps the extended "Week 1" that began with the two games between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres in Seoul, South Korea, last Wednesday and Thursday.

For managers in leagues with daily transactions, as is ESPN's standard, lineups will lock at the scheduled start time of each player's game on a given day. For those drafting from this point forward, players will lock into the lineup spots in which you selected them, with statistics from those March 20-21 games being applied retroactively. You may still start, sit, IL, add and/or drop Dodgers and Padres, but those moves will take effect only for upcoming games rather than retroactively.

For managers in leagues with weekly transactions, Dodgers and Padres players are locked into the lineup spot in which you drafted them for drafts that occurred after the games in South Korea, through this coming Sunday. You may still start, sit, IL, add and/or drop any player from the other 28 teams until the scheduled start of their first game of the week on Thursday.

Remember that the season's opening weeks present some of the greatest weather-related concerns, which is why seven host cities -- Arlington (Texas), Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Kansas City, New York and Philadelphia -- have scheduled Friday off days, as a safety net in the event of Thursday postponements; games in New York and Philadelphia have already been pushed back from Thursday to Friday. Arlington, however, is the only one of those that calls a weather-controlled environment -- Globe Life Field has a retractable roof -- its home.

Among the eight other host cities during the opening weekend are five more teams that call weather-controlled environments their home -- Houston, Miami, Phoenix (Arizona), Seattle, Tampa Bay -- with an additional three in California where the weather presents minimal risk. All eight of these teams are scheduled for four games with a high probability that all will be played, so if you're looking for volume-driven advantages, look to these eight cities for the opening weekend.

A shortened scoring period also makes it impossible for teams' entire rotations to get a starting assignment. Fortunately, the most prominent starters are typically aligned at the front, but here are some notable names who are not currently projected to work during the opening weekend, either because of scheduling or health reasons: Andrew Abbott, Dane Dunning, Reid Detmers, Kevin Gausman, MacKenzie Gore, Shota Imanaga, Michael King, Dean Kremer, Reynaldo Lopez, Charlie Morton, Ryan Pepiot, Gavin Stone, Louie Varland, Garrett Whitlock, Bryan Woo.

If you play in an offsite league that lumps both the opening weekend and the April 1-7, seven-day week that follows into a single scoring period, keep in mind that no team plays as many as 11 times in those 11 days. Any Opening Day starter would need to work on exactly four days' rest, meaning a team would have to skip another pitcher, to make three starts during that extended period.

No starter is projected to make three starts, but the fantasy-relevant starters with the greatest chance of doing so are Jose Berrios (@TB, @HOU and possibly @NYY), Shane Bieber (@OAK, @SEA and possibly @MIN), Nestor Cortes (@HOU, @ARI and possibly TOR), Zac Gallen (COL, NYY and possibly @ATL), Framber Valdez (NYY, TOR and possibly @TEX) and Logan Webb (@SD, @LAD and possibly SD). Again, every one of these starters has a slim chance of drawing that third assignment.

Among two-start values for those playing March 28-April 7 scoring periods:

• Tanner Bibee (90.2% rostered in ESPN leagues): @OAK, @MIN; 24.6 projected fantasy points

• Triston McKenzie (38.8%): @OAK, @SEA; 24.2 FPTS

• Patrick Sandoval (3.3%): @BAL, @MIA; 23.1 FPTS

• Nestor Cortes (35.6%): @HOU, @ARI; 22.6 FPTS

• DL Hall (7.3%): @NYM, SEA; 21.9 FPTS

All five pitchers rank among the top 40 in projected fantasy points for those 11 days.

The best-projected offenses in terms of raw matchups for the 11-day period spanning March 28-April 7 are the Pittsburgh Pirates (10 grade; @MIA-4, @WSH-3, BAL-3), Tampa Bay Rays (10 grade; TOR-4, TEX-3, @COL-3), Kansas City Royals (9 grade; MIN-3, @BAL-3, CWS-4) and Colorado Rockies (8 grade; @ARI-4, @CHC-3, TB-3).

The worst-projected offenses for those 11 days are the New York Mets (1 grade; MIL-3, DET-3, @CIN-3), San Francisco Giants (1 grade; @SD-4, @LAD-3, SD-3), Minnesota Twins (3 grade; @KC-3, @MIL-2, CLE-3) and Oakland Athletics (3 grade; CLE-4, BOS-3, @DET-3).

The Milwaukee Brewers and Twins are the only teams scheduled to play as few as eight times during the season's first 11 days, whereas 18 teams are slated for 10 games.

• Projected starting pitchers for the next 10 days

• Hitter matchup ratings for the next 10 days

Lineup lock times

Scheduling quirks for Week 1