Investor Pulse: Optimism for 2024 (2024)

About the Vanguard Investor Expectations Survey

Vanguard’s Investor Research & Insights team has been collecting Vanguard investor expectations for U.S. stock market returns and U.S. GDP growth since February 2017. The survey runs every other month, in February, April, June, August, October, and December. A special survey was conducted in March 2020 during the pandemic-induced market crash.

The survey poses 13 brief questions about U.S. stock market and economic growth expectations to a random sample of 2,000 Vanguard personal and 401(k) investors. It is conducted in partnership with academic researchers Stefano Giglio of the Yale School of Management, Matteo Maggiori of the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, and Johannes Stroebel of the Stern School of Business, New York University.

The survey respondents are a random sample of U.S.-based Vanguard investors invited by email to participate. About 80% of the sample is drawn from our personal investor clients and about 20% from participants in employer-sponsored defined contribution retirement plans. To be included, investors also must have opted in to receive Vanguard statements by email, be over age 21, and have total Vanguard assets of at least $10,000. Overall, this sample group holds about $2 trillion in assets at Vanguard. We receive about 2,000 responses from investors in each period the survey is conducted.

The responses may be of use to advisors, plan sponsors, researchers, and other investors wishing to gauge current sentiment among individual households and calibrate clients’ thoughts compared with the market.

Investor Pulse: Optimism for 2024 (2024)

FAQs

What is the average rate of return in 2024? ›

Annual returns

So far in 2024 (YTD), the S&P 500 index has returned an average 9.32%.

What is the expected return of the stock market in the next 10 years? ›

U.S. stock returns: 2023 optimism carries forward

This heightened optimism is on par with the positive outlook in December 2021, when investors anticipated a 6% stock market return for 2022. Investor expectations for stock returns over the long run (defined as the next 10 years) rose slightly to 7.2%.

Does Vanguard have stock research? ›

We have resources that can help you research individual stocks.

What does open order mean in Vanguard? ›

Open: An order that's been received, approved, and routed for execution. Executed: An order that's been completed. You can find out the trade price, time of the transaction, number of shares bought or sold, and other trade details by clicking Executed for the specific trade.

Is 2024 a good time to invest? ›

As a whole, analysts are optimistic about the outlook for stock prices in 2024. The consensus analyst price target for the S&P 500 is 5,090, suggesting roughly 8.5% upside from current levels.

What is the safest investment with the highest return? ›

These seven low-risk but potentially high-return investment options can get the job done:
  • Money market funds.
  • Dividend stocks.
  • Bank certificates of deposit.
  • Annuities.
  • Bond funds.
  • High-yield savings accounts.
  • 60/40 mix of stocks and bonds.
May 13, 2024

How is the stock market doing in 2024? ›

The US stock market enjoyed a strong first quarter in 2024, advancing 10%. But inflation was stickier than some expected.

Will bonds do well in 2024? ›

As inflation finally seems to be coming under control, and growth is slowing as the global economy feels the full impact of higher interest rates, 2024 could be a compelling year for bonds.

What is the forecast for the S&P 500 in 2024? ›

The estimates from strategists put the median target for the S&P 500 at 5,200 by the end of 2024, implying a decline of less than 1% from Friday's level, according to MarketWatch calculations. Heading into 2024, the median target was around 5,000 (see table below).

Which Vanguard fund has the highest return? ›

Top performing investment funds owned by Vanguard worldwide 2024, by one-year return. As of May 2024, the Vanguard Communication Services Index Fund provided the highest one-year return rate. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth Index ranked second having a one-year return rate of 37.4 percent.

What is Vanguard's best performing ETF? ›

10 Best-Performing Vanguard ETFs
TickerCompanyPerformance (Year)
MGKVanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF32.53%
VONGVanguard Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF32.52%
VUGVanguard Growth ETF32.30%
VFHVanguard Financials ETF32.14%
6 more rows
3 days ago

Which is the best Vanguard fund? ›

  • Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares (VFIAX)
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)
  • Vanguard Wellington Fund Investor Shares (VWELX)
  • Vanguard Target Retirement 2070 Fund (VSVNX)
  • Vanguard Value ETF (VTV)
  • Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund Admiral Shares (VSIAX)
  • Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG)
May 6, 2024

What is the Vanguard 30 day rule? ›

Any investor transferring money out of a given fund may not transfer money back into that same fund for 30 days.

Is it legal to buy and sell the same stock repeatedly? ›

Just as how long you have to wait to sell a stock after buying it, there is no legal limit on the number of times you can buy and sell the same stock in one day. Again, though, your broker may impose restrictions based on your account type, available capital, and regulatory rules regarding 'Pattern Day Traders'.

Should I keep money in my settlement fund Vanguard? ›

While you're not required to have a balance in your settlement fund at all times, keeping some money in the settlement fund has these advantages: You're more likely to have money to pay for purchases on the settlement date, when your account will be debited for the amount you owe.

What are predicted rates for 2024? ›

Mortgage rate predictions for 2024
Housing Authority30-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast (Q2 2024)
Mortgage Bankers Association6.70%
Wells Fargo7.05%
National Association of Realtors7.10%
Average Prediction6.85%
2 more rows

How much will the stock market gain in 2024? ›

“Looking ahead, analysts expect (year-over-year) earnings growth rates of 9.6 percent, 8.4 percent, and 17.1 percent for Q2 2024, Q3 2024, and Q4 2024, respectively,” FactSet reported in its May 3 “Earnings Insight”.

What is the sp500 forecast for 2024? ›

Analysts expect overall S&P 500 earnings to rise 10.4% in 2024, LSEG data showed. But stocks are also at high valuation levels. The S&P 500 trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio - a commonly used metric to value stocks - of 20.9, well above the index's historic average of 15.7, according to LSEG Datastream.

Is 7% annual return realistic? ›

A 7% return isn't pulled from thin air; it's historically been the average return of the S&P 500, adjusted for inflation.

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