By The Athletic NFL Staff
Feb 12, 2022
After three straight years of expected shootouts, at least based on the betting total, Super Bowl LVI has a modest over/under number. The line opened at 49.5 points on BetMGM, but has since dropped to 48.5. The Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams each bring top 10 scoring offenses to the Super Bowl. In fact, both teams averaged 27.1 points per game in the regular season.
These two teams are a little more closely matched on the defensive side, at least in terms of points allowed per game. Both finished in the middle of the pack with the Rams allowing 21.9 points per game and the Bengals allowing 22.1 points per game. Keep in mind, the Rams have only allowed six third-down conversions in three playoff wins while the Bengals have held their playoff opponents to five touchdowns on 13 red zone trips.
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The over was 8-9 in Bengals games in the regular season and the under hit in all three playoff games. The over was 9-7-1 in Rams games in the regular season. The under hit twice in three Rams playoff games.
At SoFi Stadium, home of both the Rams and Super Bowl LVI, the over was 4-6, including two playoff games. The over hit in the first three Rams home games, but the under is 6-1 since.
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Rams | -4.5 | 48.5 | -200 |
Bengals | +175 |
All odds from BetMGM. Odds updated at 9 a.m. ET Saturday. Click here for live odds.
While more money continues to pour into the over, the line originally dropped from 49.5 to 48.5 and hasn’t gone up again. Public money will continue to bet the over through the weekend.
Super Bowl total history and trends
Note: The first four Super Bowls were AFL vs. NFL and not AFC vs. NFC. In this table the AFL teams are listed under AFC and the NFL teams are listed under NFC. Also, Super Bowl I did not have a listed total.
| Super Bowl | AFC | NFC | Total | Score | O/U result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LV | Chiefs | Buccaneers | 56 | Buccaneers 31-9 | Under |
LIV | Chiefs | 49ers | 54.5 | Chiefs 31-20 | Under |
LIII | Patriots | Rams | 57.5 | Patriots 13-3 | Under |
LII | Patriots | Eagles | 49 | Eagles 41-33 | Over |
LI | Patriots | Falcons | 57 | Patriots 34-28 | Over |
L | Broncos | Panthers | 43.5 | Broncos 24-10 | Under |
XLIX | Patriots | Seahawks | 47.5 | Patriots 28-24 | Over |
XLVIII | Broncos | Seahawks | 47.5 | Seahawks 43-8 | Over |
XLVII | Ravens | 49ers | 48 | Ravens 34-31 | Over |
XLVI | Patriots | Giants | 53 | Giants 21-17 | Under |
XLV | Steelers | Packers | 45 | Packers 31-25 | Over |
XLIV | Colts | Saints | 57 | Saints 31-17 | Under |
XLIII | Steelers | Cardinals | 46 | Steelers 27-23 | Over |
XLII | Patriots | Giants | 55 | Giants 17-14 | Under |
XLI | Colts | Bears | 47 | Colts 29-17 | Under |
XL | Steelers | Seahawks | 47 | Steelers 21-10 | Under |
XXXIX | Patriots | Eagles | 46.5 | Patriots 24-21 | Under |
XXXVIII | Patriots | Panthers | 37.5 | Patriots 32-29 | Over |
XXXVII | Raiders | Buccaneers | 44 | Bucs 48-21 | Over |
XXXVI | Patriots | Rams | 53 | Patriots 20-17 | Under |
XXXV | Ravens | Giants | 33 | Ravens 34-7 | Over |
XXXIV | Titans | Rams | 45 | Rams 23-16 | Under |
XXXIII | Broncos | Falcons | 52.5 | Broncos 34-19 | Over |
XXXII | Broncos | Packers | 49 | Broncos 31-24 | Over |
XXXI | Patriots | Packers | 49 | Packers 35-21 | Over |
XXX | Steelers | Cowboys | 51 | Cowboys 27-17 | Under |
XXIX | Chargers | 49ers | 53.5 | 49ers 49-26 | Over |
XXVIII | Bills | Cowboys | 50.5 | Cowboys 30-13 | Under |
XXVII | Bills | Cowboys | 44.5 | Cowboys 52-17 | Over |
XXVI | Bills | Redskins | 49 | Redskins 37-24 | Over |
XXV | Bills | Giants | 40.5 | Giants 20-19 | Under |
XXIV | Broncos | 49ers | 48 | 49ers 55-10 | Over |
XXIII | Bengals | 49ers | 48 | 49ers 20-16 | Under |
XXII | Broncos | Redskins | 47 | Redskins 42-10 | Over |
XXI | Broncos | Giants | 40 | Giants 39-20 | Over |
XX | Patriots | Bears | 37.5 | Bears 46-10 | Over |
XIX | Dolphins | 49ers | 53.5 | 49ers 38-16 | Over |
XVIII | Raiders | Redskins | 48 | Raiders 38-9 | Under |
XVII | Dolphins | Redskins | 36.5 | Redskins 27-17 | Over |
XVI | Bengals | 49ers | 48 | 49ers 26-21 | Under |
XV | Raiders | Eagles | 37.5 | Raiders 27-10 | Under |
XIV | Steelers | Rams | 36 | Steelers 31-19 | Over |
XIII | Steelers | Cowboys | 37 | Steelers 35-31 | Over |
XII | Broncos | Cowboys | 39 | Cowboys 27-10 | Under |
XI | Raiders | Vikings | 38 | Raiders 34-14 | Over |
X | Steelers | Cowboys | 36 | Steelers 21-17 | Over |
IX | Steelers | Vikings | 33 | Steelers 16-6 | Under |
VIII | Dolphins | Vikings | 33 | Dolphins 24-7 | Under |
VII | Dolphins | Redskins | 33 | Dolphins 14-7 | Under |
VI | Dolphins | Cowboys | 34 | Cowboys 24-3 | Under |
V | Colts | Cowboys | 36 | Colts 16-13 | Under |
IV | Chiefs | Vikings | 39 | Chiefs 23-7 | Under |
III | Jets | Colts | 40 | Jets 16-7 | Under |
II | Raiders | Packers | 43 | Packers 33-14 | Over |
I | Chiefs | Packers | N/A | Packers 35-10 | N/A |
Believe it or not, the over has come in 27 times in Super Bowl history and the under has come in… 27 times. After Super Bowl II went over, the next seven Super Bowls went under, meaning the trend has been more towards overs in recent decades.
The last three Super Bowls have gone under the posted total. Five of the previous six before that went over.
The six highest totals (54.5 points or greater) have all occurred in the last 15 years. Four of the last five Super Bowls (before this year) are among those six.
The highest-ever closing total for a Super Bowl was three years ago when the Patriots and Rams had a line of 57.5. That game finished 13-3 in favor of the Patriots, making it the lowest-scoring Super Bowl ever.
The lowest-ever closing total is 33 points, which has happened four times: Super Bowls VII, VIII, IX and XXXV. The first three of those went under. The Dolphins won Super Bowl VII 14-7 and the Steelers won Super Bowl IX 16-6. Those were the two lowest-scoring Super Bowls before the Pats and Rams game mentioned above. The all-world Baltimore Ravens defense was the cause of a low closing total for Super Bowl XXXV, but the Ravens scored 34 points on their own to bring in an over.
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Spread offenses are all over the NFL in recent years, but scoring in the Super Bowl hasn’t taken a big jump since the first decade of it being known as the Super Bowl. The first 10 Super Bowls averaged 31.3 points per game (with the average betting total being 36.3). The next 10 Super Bowls averaged 48.6 points per game, which is the same average as the five most recent Super Bowls and is higher than the last 15 games (47.6).
Betting totals took longer to adjust, but have caught up. Of the first 14 Super Bowls to have listed totals, 12 were under 40. Since Super Bowl XX, there have been just two totals under 40 and both those games went over (XXXV and XXXVIII).
More Super Bowl news
- James Holzhauer’s Super Bowl strategy betting guide
- 2022 Super Bowl props best bets and picks: The Athletic’s model makes its selections for Bengals vs. Rams
- 2022 Super Bowl halftime show, acts, performers, odds: How many songs will be played? Will there be a wardrobe malfunction?
(Photo of Vonn Bell: David Eulitt / Getty Images; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in the above article.)
