The last four Super Bowls have gone under the closing total. Will Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce force a high-scoring game or will the Eagles’ stout defense and run game turn this into a lower scoring game?
The total has moved up since opening at 49.5 on BetMGM. There was a lot of line movement soon after the matchup was set. The spread, which is less than a field goal, shifted from the Chiefs being a small favorite to the Eagles being a small favorite. The total also moved quickly. A large betting group placed an over bet on 49.5 on Monday afternoon.
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The Chiefs were the highest scoring team in the NFL during the regular season (29.2 points per game) and the Eagles were third at 28.1 points per game. That alone means a shootout is possible, but the Eagles have a strong defense as well. The Eagles allowed 20.2 points per game in the regular season, which ranked eighth in the league. The Chiefs were 16th in points allowed per game at 21.7
Odds update live and are from BetMGM.
The under is 11-8 in Chiefs games this season and 2-0 in the playoffs. Mahomes has been playing on a bad ankle after suffering the injury in the Divisional round against Jacksonville.
The under is 10-9 in Eagles games this season and also 2-0 in the playoffs. The NFC Championship Game went under after two San Francisco 49ers quarterbacks got injured in that game and the 49ers scored just seven points.
During the regular season, 10 Chiefs games went over 50.5 total points (neither of the two postseason games did). Bizarrely, the Chiefs played in three games with a total of 51 points, just barely above this number. Meanwhile, the Eagles played in just five games this season where the total went over 50.5 points.
Austin Mock’s model has a projected total of 50.9 (and also favors the Eagles by half a point). In other words, many metrics are showing that this line is right around where it should be. Good luck betting into this line.
Super Bowl total history and trends
Note: The first four Super Bowls were AFL vs. NFL and not AFC vs. NFC. In this table the AFL teams are listed under AFC and the NFL teams are listed under NFC. Also, Super Bowl I did not have a listed total.
| Super Bowl | AFC | NFC | Total | Score | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LVI | Bengals | Rams | 48.5 | Rams 23-20 | Under |
LV | Chiefs | Buccaneers | 56 | Buccaneers 31-9 | Under |
LIV | Chiefs | 49ers | 54.5 | Chiefs 31-20 | Under |
LIII | Patriots | Rams | 57.5 | Patriots 13-3 | Under |
LII | Patriots | Eagles | 49 | Eagles 41-33 | Over |
LI | Patriots | Falcons | 57 | Patriots 34-28 | Over |
L | Broncos | Panthers | 43.5 | Broncos 24-10 | Under |
XLIX | Patriots | Seahawks | 47.5 | Patriots 28-24 | Over |
XLVIII | Broncos | Seahawks | 47.5 | Seahawks 43-8 | Over |
XLVII | Ravens | 49ers | 48 | Ravens 34-31 | Over |
XLVI | Patriots | Giants | 53 | Giants 21-17 | Under |
XLV | Steelers | Packers | 45 | Packers 31-25 | Over |
XLIV | Colts | Saints | 57 | Saints 31-17 | Under |
XLIII | Steelers | Cardinals | 46 | Steelers 27-23 | Over |
XLII | Patriots | Giants | 55 | Giants 17-14 | Under |
XLI | Colts | Bears | 47 | Colts 29-17 | Under |
XL | Steelers | Seahawks | 47 | Steelers 21-10 | Under |
XXXIX | Patriots | Eagles | 46.5 | Patriots 24-21 | Under |
XXXVIII | Patriots | Panthers | 37.5 | Patriots 32-29 | Over |
XXXVII | Raiders | Buccaneers | 44 | Bucs 48-21 | Over |
XXXVI | Patriots | Rams | 53 | Patriots 20-17 | Under |
XXXV | Ravens | Giants | 33 | Ravens 34-7 | Over |
XXXIV | Titans | Rams | 45 | Rams 23-16 | Under |
XXXIII | Broncos | Falcons | 52.5 | Broncos 34-19 | Over |
XXXII | Broncos | Packers | 49 | Broncos 31-24 | Over |
XXXI | Patriots | Packers | 49 | Packers 35-21 | Over |
XXX | Steelers | Cowboys | 51 | Cowboys 27-17 | Under |
XXIX | Chargers | 49ers | 53.5 | 49ers 49-26 | Over |
XXVIII | Bills | Cowboys | 50.5 | Cowboys 30-13 | Under |
XXVII | Bills | Cowboys | 44.5 | Cowboys 52-17 | Over |
XXVI | Bills | Redskins | 49 | Redskins 37-24 | Over |
XXV | Bills | Giants | 40.5 | Giants 20-19 | Under |
XXIV | Broncos | 49ers | 48 | 49ers 55-10 | Over |
XXIII | Bengals | 49ers | 48 | 49ers 20-16 | Under |
XXII | Broncos | Redskins | 47 | Redskins 42-10 | Over |
XXI | Broncos | Giants | 40 | Giants 39-20 | Over |
XX | Patriots | Bears | 37.5 | Bears 46-10 | Over |
XIX | Dolphins | 49ers | 53.5 | 49ers 38-16 | Over |
XVIII | Raiders | Redskins | 48 | Raiders 38-9 | Under |
XVII | Dolphins | Redskins | 36.5 | Redskins 27-17 | Over |
XVI | Bengals | 49ers | 48 | 49ers 26-21 | Under |
XV | Raiders | Eagles | 37.5 | Raiders 27-10 | Under |
XIV | Steelers | Rams | 36 | Steelers 31-19 | Over |
XIII | Steelers | Cowboys | 37 | Steelers 35-31 | Over |
XII | Broncos | Cowboys | 39 | Cowboys 27-10 | Under |
XI | Raiders | Vikings | 38 | Raiders 34-14 | Over |
X | Steelers | Cowboys | 36 | Steelers 21-17 | Over |
IX | Steelers | Vikings | 33 | Steelers 16-6 | Under |
VIII | Dolphins | Vikings | 33 | Dolphins 24-7 | Under |
VII | Dolphins | Redskins | 33 | Dolphins 14-7 | Under |
VI | Dolphins | Cowboys | 34 | Cowboys 24-3 | Under |
V | Colts | Cowboys | 36 | Colts 16-13 | Under |
IV | Chiefs | Vikings | 39 | Chiefs 23-7 | Under |
III | Jets | Colts | 40 | Jets 16-7 | Under |
II | Raiders | Packers | 43 | Packers 33-14 | Over |
I | Chiefs | Packers | N/A | Packers 35-10 | N/A |
Last year’s Rams–Bengals game broke a 27-all tie between overs and unders in Super Bowl history. The 23-20 final went 5.5 points under the listed total.
The last four Super Bowls have gone under. Five of the previous six before that went over.
After Super Bowl II went over, the next seven Super Bowls went under, meaning the trend has been more towards overs in recent decades.
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The six highest totals (54.5 points or greater) have all occurred in the last 15 years. Four of the last six Super Bowls (before this year) are among those six.
The highest-ever closing total for a Super Bowl was four years ago when the Patriots and Rams had a line of 57.5. That game finished 13-3 in favor of the Patriots, making it the lowest-scoring Super Bowl ever. It’s funny to think the highest ever closing total for a Super Bowl ended up being the lowest-scoring one ever.
The lowest-ever closing total is 33 points, which has happened four times: Super Bowls VII, VIII, IX and XXXV. The first three of those went under. The Dolphins won Super Bowl VII 14-7 and the Steelers won Super Bowl IX 16-6. Those were the two lowest-scoring Super Bowls before the Pats and Rams game mentioned above. The all-world Baltimore Ravens defense was the cause of a low closing total for Super Bowl XXXV, but the Ravens scored 34 points on their own to bring in an over.
Spread offenses are all over the NFL in recent years, but scoring in the Super Bowl hasn’t taken a big jump since the first decade of it being known as the Super Bowl. The first 10 Super Bowls averaged 31.3 points per game (with the average betting total being 36.3). The next 10 Super Bowls averaged 48.6 points per game. The 10 most recent Super Bowls have averaged 48.8 points per game, which is very close to this year’s total.
Betting totals took longer to adjust, but have caught up. Of the first 14 Super Bowls to have listed totals, 12 were under 40. Since Super Bowl XX, there have been just two totals under 40 and both those games went over (XXXV and XXXVIII).
(Photo of Haason Reddick: Andy Lewis / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
