Uganda's economic transformation under President Museveni's leadership has been nothing short of remarkable. Over the past four decades, the country has witnessed an impressive and consistent growth rate, making it one of Africa's success stories. But here's where it gets controversial: is this growth solely attributed to Museveni's policies, or are there other factors at play? Let's dive in and explore the economic journey of Uganda.
The Journey to Economic Stability
Uganda's economy has undergone distinct phases of growth. The first phase, from 1986 to 1990, focused on recovery from political turmoil. The second phase, between 1990 and 2015, saw a significant shift towards skilled services and a decline in agriculture's contribution to GDP, mirroring the trend in more developed economies. The third phase, starting from 2000, has been characterized by steady economic growth, with an average annual rate of 5-6%.
When compared to other African economies, Uganda's performance is commendable. Between 1990 and 2015, its real GDP growth averaged an impressive 6.7% annually. Even more remarkable is the consistent growth rate, which has made Uganda a reliable investment destination and one of Africa's most stable growth stories.
As we approach the 2026 general elections, political parties have presented their manifestos, with the economy taking center stage. It's crucial to evaluate the economic plans proposed by the presidential candidates, especially the leading contenders, Yoweri Museveni and Robert Kyagulanyi.
The NRM's Economic Achievements
The NRM manifesto highlights various economic gains. The economy has demonstrated resilience, recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and doubling its growth rate from 3.0% in FY2019/20 to 6.3% in FY2024/25. This growth has led to an expansion of the economy, with a projected size of Shs 254.2 trillion (USD 66.1 billion) by the end of FY2025/26. Uganda has also achieved an upgrade from a least developed country to the lower middle-income category.
One of the most notable achievements is the reduction in income inequality. The Gini index, a measure of inequality, has decreased to 38% in 2024, indicating a narrowing gap between the richest and poorest Ugandans. The NRM manifesto further emphasizes the restoration and creation of jobs, with an increase in employment opportunities in both the informal and public sectors.
Uganda's price stability management has been prudent, making it one of the most cost-effective and predictable countries. This has resulted in an affordable cost of living, with mostly stable or reduced prices for basic goods. Additionally, the Ugandan shilling has been the most stable currency in Africa, gaining value while many other currencies lost theirs in FY 2024/25.
The country's revenue collection has also doubled, with a significant increase in total revenue. The industrial sector has experienced growth, with an expansion of industrial parks and an increase in the number of factories. Uganda's exports have diversified and become more sophisticated, with total export earnings reaching USD 13.3 billion in FY 2024/25. Remittances from Ugandans abroad have also increased, reaching USD 1.6 billion in FY 2024/25.
Uganda's capacity for industrialization has improved, with more Ugandans gaining access to electricity. Electricity generation has increased, and access to electricity has risen to 60% of the population in 2024. Tourism earnings have also grown, reaching USD 1.52 billion in the 12 months to March 2025.
The NRM has invested over Shs 11 trillion in wealth creation initiatives over the past 10 years, contributing to a significant reduction in poverty and a decline in households relying on subsistence economies. These initiatives have empowered youth and women in business and helped businesses recover from economic shocks.
Looking Ahead: NRM's Economic Vision
The NRM manifesto outlines a clear economic mission, aiming to fully monetize the economy and double its size. The plan includes commercializing agriculture, investing in manufacturing, adding value to minerals and oil & gas, developing tourism, and investing in science, technology, and innovation. The manifesto provides a detailed roadmap for achieving these goals.
In contrast, Museveni's manifesto chapter titled "Growing the Economy and Creating Wealth" is dedicated to Uganda's economy, while Kyagulanyi's policy priorities lack a structural focus on the economy. The NUP manifesto mentions the economy 28 times, but without the depth of analysis it deserves.
As we consider Uganda's economic future, it's essential to critically evaluate these manifestos and engage in a thoughtful discussion. What are your thoughts on Uganda's economic trajectory? Do you believe Museveni's policies have been the primary driver of this success, or are there other factors to consider? Feel free to share your insights and engage in a constructive dialogue in the comments section.
